Which candidate will the O'Malley supporters end up backing on caucus night

[onenote]

As I understand the process, if a candidate doesn't have support of at least 15 percent of the caucus goers, the candidate is declared "non-viable" and his/her supporters can "realign" with another candidate before the final vote. It seems likely, based on all the poll numbers, that O'Malley will fall short of the 15 percent threshold in most if not all locations. It will be interesting to see whether some number of the O'Malley supporters will realign and which candidate they will choose. Give that the result looks to be close, the O'Malley supporters could play a determinative role in the outcome in some locations and possibly overall.

[ProudToBeLiberal]

1. O'Malley told his supporters to stay strong and stick with him throughout the caucus night. nt

[onenote]

7. Thanks. That makes sense

Although it will be interesting to see if there are any defections. Sounds like it won't play a significant role in the outcome, though.

[morningfog]

17. And what? Just turn around and go home when they don't hit 15%.

His supporters could be the Iowa king makers.

[FSogol]

2. It is very simple.....

[font size="96"]Martin O'Malley[/font]

[Betty Karlson]

40. That's what I thought when reading the thread title. eom

[lunamagica]

3. hmmm...O'Malley?

Last edited Fri Jan 29, 2016, 07:31 PM - Edit history (2)

I believe his supporters will stick with him.

[Funtatlaguy]

21. Standing strong doesn't get MOM any tallys.

The way I understand the rules:
When they count your group and you don't have 15% you can either go to another candidate, stay uncommitted, or go home.

Standing strong? that would equate to staying uncommitted.

[Skwmom]

44. He's betting on the establishment via Clinton to help him out....

[book_worm]

4. I think they can realign or be uncommitted

but I expect he will do better than the polls say.

[restorefreedom]

5. 1. the threshold sucks. you should be able to vote for your person.

2. in the event that om does not meet the threshold, i don't know what they do. i might be just dejected enough to say screw it and go home.

edit...i don't think it will apply here becsuse i expect martin to place second after bernie.

[askew]

6. They will stick with O'Malley.

People don't seem to get the 15% viability is at each precinct level. O'Malley is going to be viable at many precincts and even win some.

O'Malley has been the only campaign to do serious outreach to Iowan Latinos. He just got endorsed by some of the top Latino activists in the state. He just got the endorsement of the top IA Latino newspaper. That is going to translate to him winning or at least doing really well in Latino precincts.

He also rolled out the endorsement of 34 more leaders in the Dem party in Iowa. He's got the backing of a lot of the people who have been doing caucus organizing for decades.

Lastly, he is getting large crowds on college campuses and has finished ahead of Hillary in mock caucuses at High School and college level more than once.

He is going to do significantly better than the polls are showing right now.

[FSogol]

11. +1 Well said. Some people are going to be in for a surprise on Monday night.

[morningfog]

20. I seriously doubt O'Malley will win a precinct.

He may hit 15% in some, but in the vast majority he will not. What will his supporters do when he's not viable for that precinct?

[askew]

23. He will win some precincts. His support isn't spread evenly across the state.

He will do unusually well in Latino precincts and run a close second in quite a few college precincts. O'Malley has the top activist on Drake's campus working for him and there are other top activists spread throughout the state working for O'Malley.

He also just picked up the endorsement of another top tier Iowa Latino activist.

[Fumesucker]

8. Most of the anti establishment voters are already Berniebros

[SheenaR]

9. If you trust the polls

they will go to Sanders more. If he does not meet the threshold and they leave without committing to a candidate, that's their right. I don't agree with it, but it is their right.

[Sheepshank]

10. article posted on DU today seems to imply most would go with Sanders

If ALL goes to Sanders, and going by today's poll numbers, that would put him back within the margin of error.

It's a nail biter all right.

[FSogol]

13. Link?

[Sheepshank]

15. Here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511089408

[FSogol]

16. Thanks, I hadn't seen any polling on who the 2nd choice is for O'Malley's supporters. n/t

[MineralMan]

12. They'll split, but in what percentages I don't know.

You're right, of course. If the O'Malley supporters don't have the numbers to be a viable group at any caucus, they'll have to decide whether to align with another group or remain uncommitted. Most will align with another candidate, I'm sure, but I can't predict which they'll choose or in what percentages.

I can pretty much guarantee, though, based on current polling, that O'Malley will not end up with any delegates from Iowa, nor will he have a viable group at most caucus meetings. Who will benefit from that? I do not know. We'll find out on Tuesday, though.

[FSogol]

18. Not a viable group at any caucus? Really?

[askew]

24. Yeah, they don't know what they are talking about.

According to Iowa experts on the ground, they are expecting O'Malley to finish 2nd at Grinell and Drake University. He is definitely going to be viable in a lot of precincts.

The idea that he won't win any delegates is a bit silly.

[MineralMan]

26. Do you think he'll make up a viable group at

some Iowa caucuses? The threshold is 15% of attendees at any given caucus. If O'Malley can't assemble a group large enough to make up 15% of attendees, his group won't be viable, and will be granted no delegates to the next level. That's how it works.

So, if 100 people show up at a particular caucus, he'll need 15 of those to caucus for him. Frankly, I don't think he'll get enough supporters at any caucus meeting in Iowa to create a group that is 15 of the attendees of that caucus. Do you? Current polling isn't showing support at that level in the state.

Understanding how those caucuses work is important. Now, I do not know how many people show up at a typical caucus in Iowa. But 15% is a pretty stiff requirement for a third-place candidate. I don't see that kind of support.

See this explanation, if you wish:

http://www.iowacaucus.biz/ia_caucus_howitworks.html

[FSogol]

28. I think you'll see O'Malley come in 1st or 2nd in some caucuses. Sure, he might have trouble with

the 15% in some areas, but to say he wouldn't be "viable at any caucus" is sheer nonsense. Look at his support in the Latino community, his tie with Sanders at the Drake U mock caucus, and his large number of local Iowa endorsements. You're listening to too much msn white noise.

[askew]

31. He also finished a strong 2nd in the IA High School mock caucus.

That caucus is taken very seriously by campaigns as a pre-test of their organization skills. It is done state wide and the results are reported by Iowa's SoS. O'Malley finished in 2nd place and won some of the caucuses. A large portion of the kids participating in the event will be able to caucus as they will be 18 on Election Day in November.

As for the endorsements, he just picked up 34 more of them:
Bowman, State Senator

Tom Hockensmith, Polk County Supervisor

Sandy Dockendorff, Des Moines County Democratic Chair

Jordan Pope, Decatur County Chair, the youngest county chair in Iowa

Matt Bemrich, Fort Dodge Mayor

Denise Dolan, Dubuque County Auditor

Jim Schroeder, Mayor of Lost Nation

Grant Veeder, Black Hawk County Auditor

Doug Bailey, County Supervisor

Juanita Zavala, Ottumwa School Board Member

Eric Van Lanker, County Auditor

Bob Schroeder, Allamakee County Dems Vice Chair and Former Postville City Councilor

Pat Harney, Johnson County Supervisor

Ben Stanford, Quasqueton City Council Member

Roy Shwickerath, Floyd County Supervisor

Sue Keninger, Hardin County Dems Chair

Paulette Hammer, Winnebago County Dems Chair

Richard Gruber , Pocahontas Mayor and County Chair

Jeanine Wichman, Floyd County Democratic Chair

Bob Thomas, Appanoose County Democratic Chair

Gayle Tellin, Fayette County Dems Chair

Tim Tracy, Carroll County Chair

Eric Chase, Buena Vista County Dems Vice Chair

Jeremy Brigham, Executive Director of Iowan's For Gun Safety

Patricia Ritchie, Combat veteran, Domestic Violence Advocate, President of South West Latino Association

Roberta Rosheim, Secretary of the Jackson County Democrats

Kay Ciha, Treasurer, Washington County Democrats

Jean-Marie Hall, Former Clayton County Dems Chair

Teresa Meyer, Iowa House Candidate District 63 and Former Bremer County Dems Chair

Steven Erickson, Former Emmet County Chair

Eric Schmitt, Former Floyd County Chair

Lyle Otte, Former Winneshiek County Chair

Greg Simpson, Former County Chair

Peggy Liautaud, Buena Vista County

[MineralMan]

35. Perhaps. We shall see.

I did some checking. In 2008, the turnout at the Iowa Democratic caucuses was close to 240,000. The number of precincts in Iowa is 1781. That meant an average turnout for each precinct caucus was about 135. A 15% group of that average rounds up to 21. Viability numbers are always rounded up. "At least 15%" is the rule.

So, to get any delegates to the next level, the county convention, at least 21 people, on average would have to caucus for O'Malley.

Now, 2008 was an exceptional year. I wouldn't want to predict the average turnout this year in Iowa precincts.

BTW, the 15% rule applies at the county convention level, as well, and at the congressional district convention, too. At each of those conventions a candidate must amass at least 15% of delegates to be considered.

Finally, the Iowa state convention is the last step in delegate selection. Proportionality maintains there, too, as does the 15% rule. The final delegate count will not be known until that convention is held.

The 15% rule applies in all 50 states.

[FSogol]

33. So dismissive. Maybe you should read it. n/t

[MineralMan]

36. I have read it. See my next reply to you.

O'Malley is polling under 10% in Iowa.

[FSogol]

38. You were right when you said "perhaps, we shall see." n/t

[MineralMan]

39. I always say that, because I cannot absolutely predict

anything about a state I don't even live in. We'll see. We'll always see. On Tuesday, we'll have a fairly accurate delegate count from Iowa, although what happens at the conventions could alter that somewhat. It will still be fairly accurate, if made by someone who actually understands the caucus system.

[askew]

25. Both Richardson and Biden won delegates out of Iowa in 2008 and they were polling low.

Kucinich won delegates in 2004 while polling low. Caucuses aren't like primaries. And it matters that O'Malley has some of the top organizers in the state getting out the vote for him.

[onenote]

37. I don't believe that is correct

Everything I've seen about the 2008 delegate selection indicates that all of Iowa's delegates were divided amongst Obama, Clinton, and Edwards.

[askew]

43. I thought Richardson got a delegate in the first round but that could be my bad memory.

[DaGimpster]

14. From all indications, and from the couple supporters I know.

They will break mostly for Sanders, or leave uncommitted.

[bigtree]

19. O'Malley

...with (hold) strong organizing.

[demmiblue]

22. If I were going by DU O'Malley supporters... Clinton.

A good portion seem to be openly hostile toward Sanders and Sanders supporters.

In the real world... Sanders. There is more common ground, politically, between the two. Also, I think they want to shake things up a wee bit, as opposed to supporting the same 'ol Washington (and Wall Street) elite.

[bigtree]

27. that's likely a reflection of the Sanders supporters they're responding to

...should be instructive to his support base here, but the reality is probably as wasted on them as it is on you.

Sen. Sanders represents my own political interests to a much larger degree than Sec. Clinton. That's not going to stop me from confronting any campaign which I think has erred or is out of line. Going by the nonsense that flies around here is a dubious measure of where people actually stand on these presidential choices.

[FSogol]

29. heh. n/t

[elleng]

34. You got it, as usual, my bro!!!

[liberal N proud]

30. If the feel the Bern bunch kidnaps them...

[FSogol]

32. Then, O'Malley will show up and play "This Land is Your Land" on his guitar....

[NCTraveler]

41. I think many will stick with O'Malley.

I think many of his supporters are turned off by both the Clinton and Sanders campaigns. They also have a great case to make that we are watching media driven campaigns and O'Malley was left out for very sinister reasons.

I think it's pretty hard to tell what is going to happen. I'm pretty confident at this point that Iowa isn't as close as some think. I believe on Monday night a whole bunch of Sanders supporters are going to be following my words that the Iowa Caucus is a pretty crappy system.

[mmonk]

42. I really don't understand caucus states.

Just seems like an elimination game of sorts.

[MuseRider]

45. His supporters will do

whatever feels right to them. Nothing more and nothing less. They will get prodded to vote for another but they can do whatever they want.

I find it sad that anyone would ask them this question. They know what they will do and perhaps he will do better in their precinct, you never know. They will follow their hearts and minds and that is the only answer to that.