Just Released Iowa Poll-It is Clinton 53% Sanders 42% O'Malley 5%%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.oann.com/polliowa/

[Metric System]

1. It will be interesting to see the Seltzer poll. I believe it will be out tomorrow. I'm assuming that

Hillary will lose Iowa mainly as a coping mechanism. I just don't want to get my hopes up.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Anything is possible. Only God can see the future.

We mortals have to rely on the tools available and the polls suggest she is going to win.

[Molusko]

2. Since Quinnipiac, it's been a streak of good poll news for Hillary

Thanks for the news.

[HerbChestnut]

4. Gravis...great...

[Gothmog]

5. These are great polling numbers

[mhatrw]

6. This same organization had Sanders 46% to Clinton 43% in their 1/19 NH poll.

This is the first Iowa poll they have done, so there are no trends to report.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Actually, they have done previous Iowa polls.

But here is a link to aggregate polling:



http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-caucus



That's the fourth poll in a row to show HRC ahead.

[mhatrw]

15. Thanks. I see Clinton's lead has shrunk from 19 points to 11 points during the last 2 weeks

according to these pollsters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. At this rate Bernie will pull ahead in Iowa by February 15./nt

[Attorney in Texas]

11. Gravis (like other robo-call polls) have a HUGE pro-Trump and pro-Clinton house effect. The reason

for this phenomenon is unclear the fact that there is uch a house effect is indisputable).

[Alfresco]

8. More data to suggest a positive outcome. Thanks.

[Attorney in Texas]

9. This Gravis robo-call poll raises the issue: are the robo-polls correct or are all other polls right

538 and other polling analysts have confirmed that the robo-call polls are projecting different results than the many polls conducted according to all of other polling methods.

The Democratic race in Iowa is an excellent example of this phenomenon.

If you look at just the robo-call polling, you see Clinton well ahead:



However, if you look at ALL of the polling except the robo-call polls (the live cell + landline phone polls and the internet-based polls come to similar results), you see a race that is a dead heat with Sanders rising while Clinton falls:



The reason why the poll aggregation websites (538, RCP, Pollster) show Clinton with a slight lead is that they average the robo-call polls (which consistently favor Trump and Clinton) with the other polls which use a traditional methodology (so Clinton's lead is smaller than her robo-lead but the race is not tied as the non-robo-polls indicate).

Check back Monday night to see which polls were more accurate!

[NurseJackie]

10. Things really aren't looking very good for Bernie, are they? But, on the bright side ...

... things are looking EXCEEDINGLY positive for Hillary!

Go, Hillary!

[Attorney in Texas]

14. Hillary's expectations are defined by Gravis. If she falls short of what the robo-call polls predict

then she has failed to meet expectations.

You have sold me on this point!

[KingFlorez]

12. Bye Bye Bernie

[NurseJackie]

21. +1

[mcar]

13. Another excellent poll!

[libdem4life]

17. Isn't there some woman who is never wrong who is supposed to give her pick tomorrow?

But then again, as Hillary said, she doesn't pay any attention to the polls...as she proceeded to tell the interviewer how ahead she was...uh, in the polls.

[Renew Deal]

18. Yes. There is the Ann Seltzer poll.

But you are only as good as your last poll. Zogby was considered the best for awhile after getting Clinton right. Now he's nowhere to be found.

[libdem4life]

20. Yes, that's her. Thanks. I don't understand the middle sentence...was it to be a name?

[Renew Deal]

22. Zogby

Damn autocorrect

[libdem4life]

24. Yeah...it's great when it works, when not ..... Thanks.

[zappaman]

19. Yeah right. That's corporate math.

I learned about that here on DU.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1046347

[Bobbie Jo]

23. K&R

[workinclasszero]

25. Clinton 53% Sanders 42% O'Malley 5%

Wow! Looking good for Hillary!

[lunamagica]

26. K&R. Go Hillary!

[MoonRiver]

27. Thanks for this great news DSB!

I wouldn't be surprised if this latest round of email hit job attacks is helping her. We've seen these attacks since 1992, and it is always bogus.