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CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 02:08 AM Jan 2016

Seems like the Clinton camp has a long history of attacking Ann Selzer's Iowa Poll

I was wondering why we're seeing Clinton supporters attempting to discredit Ann Selzer's Iowa Poll. Some are posting misleading information. Selzer has been given an A+ rating by Nate Silver. A rating he's given only three times.

An article from Politico, in 2008--highlights how the Clinton camp (Mark Penn in particular) didn't appreciate Ann Selzer and her last Iowa Poll before the caucuses--that predicted that Barack Obama would handily win the Iowa caucuses due to strong support from Independents and first-time caucus goers.

Penn questioned Selzer's methods. Turns out, Selzer was incredibly accurate.

So, why are Clinton supporters AGAIN--in 2016--attempting to discredit or minimize The Iowa Poll? Could it be that they are afraid of what the results might be--and what they might mean, just as they were in 2008?

It's important to remember that Selzer dives deep with information she releases in this final Iowa Poll before the caucuses. Not only will she give us standard numbers, telling us where the race will be. She also will predict, based on her polling, how many Independents and first-time caucus goers will attend the Iowa caucuses.

Could it be that Hillary and her supporters are attempting to tamp down what this poll means, because they are afraid of what the numbers may show?

Very enlightening read about Mark Penn attempting to spin and discredit Selzer's final Iowa Poll before the 2008 caucuses.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/pols-struggle-to-spin-final-iowa-polls

This is interesting too. Selzer talks about Judy Woodruff, using Clinton-camp talking points, trying to discredit her as well.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/selzer/

From the article:
"The interview starts with Woodruff questioning the methodology of Selzer’s Jan. 1 poll for the Des Moines Register, as Mark Penn, chief strategist for Hillary Clinton, had in a widely circulated email memo.

Woodruff: Today’s Iowa poll, it’s out. You’re assuming that 60 percent of the voters in the Democratic caucuses will be first-time caucus attendees. How did you assume that? Why did you assume it?

Selzer: Well, actually, I assumed nothing. That’s what my data told me. We put our method in place, and we let the voters speak to us.

As Selzer speaks, the camera zooms in close, about the most dramatic shot employed by public television news, until you’re staring directly into the auburn-framed face challenging the conventional wisdom of a Clinton dynasty.

33 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Seems like the Clinton camp has a long history of attacking Ann Selzer's Iowa Poll (Original Post) CoffeeCat Jan 2016 OP
I certainly trust her poll, and I will be disappointed if she shows Hillary still in the lead virtualobserver Jan 2016 #1
Meanwhile at Hillary's rally in Dubuque, Iowa (population 58k) today... JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #2
Well........ DJ13 Jan 2016 #3
Racketball court? Fumesucker Jan 2016 #5
Pathetically hilarious. frylock Jan 2016 #7
This is the photo PBS pushed Ichingcarpenter Jan 2016 #12
Please give me a direct link for this Hillarious photo Divernan Jan 2016 #13
You can right-click on the image and copy the image link. Beware: it is from a RW source, I found it JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #21
$2600 a head put on sale Blue Light Special... $60 a head! And still..... in_cog_ni_to Jan 2016 #20
The behavior of the Clinton campaign for the last few weeks seems winter is coming Jan 2016 #4
Well, if that's the case CoffeeCat Jan 2016 #6
Selzer's not perfect. DemocraticWing Jan 2016 #8
But four Iowa polls have come out within the last 6 days, with Bernie ahead CoffeeCat Jan 2016 #9
Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2016 #14
Happy to help. These 3 polls that show Clinton losing to Sanders in Iowa--released this week. CoffeeCat Jan 2016 #15
Here are the aggregates. I will post them without editorial comment DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #24
This message was self-deleted by its author CobaltBlue Jan 2016 #10
K&R - great OP and awesome discussion. n/t 99th_Monkey Jan 2016 #11
I thought it was bizarre that Clinton supporters only were disparaging Ann Selzer and The Iowa Poll CoffeeCat Jan 2016 #17
It's great that Selzer includes the 'new voters' factor. 99th_Monkey Jan 2016 #25
This evening. I want to say 5:45 pm Central. n/t winter is coming Jan 2016 #26
Thanks .. I'll look for it. n/t 99th_Monkey Jan 2016 #28
Link to article here. Results live streamed at 5:30 at dmregister.com CoffeeCat Jan 2016 #29
Thanks CoffeeCat ... u rock! n/t 99th_Monkey Jan 2016 #30
Let me guess...if it shows Bernie in the lead workinclasszero Jan 2016 #16
No matter what the result of the Iowa Poll CoffeeCat Jan 2016 #18
OK well sorry for the snark then workinclasszero Jan 2016 #19
I hear you CoffeeCat Jan 2016 #22
haha true workinclasszero Jan 2016 #23
I was polled in this one rurallib Jan 2016 #27
I just read that Monday should be clear weather--and no snow CoffeeCat Jan 2016 #31
60% new voters means Buzz cook Jan 2016 #32
Looks like the poll wasn't very accrate. nt Buzz cook Feb 2016 #33
 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
1. I certainly trust her poll, and I will be disappointed if she shows Hillary still in the lead
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 02:13 AM
Jan 2016

We will learn a lot when it is released today.

Ichingcarpenter

(36,988 posts)
12. This is the photo PBS pushed
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 05:31 AM
Jan 2016
:large


Notice the http PBS tag.

Only 200 at most showed up for the event.

Potemkin Village is more accurate than astro turfing in this case

Sorta like what Enron did

In 1998, the energy services company Enron built and maintained a fake trading floor on the 6th story of its downtown Houston headquarters. The trading floor was used to impress Wall Street analysts attending Enron's annual shareholders meeting and even included rehearsals conducted by Enron executives Kenneth Lay and Jeffrey Skilling

Bill playing Golf with Kenneth Lay
from NBC news it says:



Enron did surprisingly well during the Clinton administration netting $1.2 Billion in Government loans

Clinton and Enron

http://talking_points.tripod.com/enron/id9.html




Divernan

(15,480 posts)
13. Please give me a direct link for this Hillarious photo
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 06:10 AM
Jan 2016

so I can put it on my FB page. I can picture Hill's handlers like sheep dogs, herding this pathetic turnout into a tight group. "Jam em in there so a closeup makes it look like a crowd!" And typically, at least 50 of tjat "crowd" are Hill's campaign staff. What a pathetic farce her campaign is.

JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)
21. You can right-click on the image and copy the image link. Beware: it is from a RW source, I found it
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 12:48 PM
Jan 2016

on Drudgereport which despite its ills is still a good source for breaking news.

in_cog_ni_to

(41,600 posts)
20. $2600 a head put on sale Blue Light Special... $60 a head! And still.....
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 12:47 PM
Jan 2016



That's just hillary*ous!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

winter is coming

(11,785 posts)
4. The behavior of the Clinton campaign for the last few weeks seems
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 02:54 AM
Jan 2016

increasingly desperate. I'd be very surprised if Selzer's poll shows Clinton in the lead. I'm guessing Bernie will be leading by more than the MOE.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
6. Well, if that's the case
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 03:12 AM
Jan 2016

then you can expect that Ann Selzer will be positioned as an imbalanced, unprofessional pollster and her Iowa Poll will be maligned as a tool of Satan.

DemocraticWing

(1,290 posts)
8. Selzer's not perfect.
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 03:13 AM
Jan 2016

But she is very good. I will take her results very seriously, all the while noting that if she's wrong (I believe she was wrong in 2004) that polling is a very difficult and nuanced practice. I've done social research and it's not easy, and with something as volatile as the Iowa caucus, expecting 100% accuracy will only be a setup for failure.

However she is going to have a poll conducted to the highest known standards of social research. It will be a valuable data point, perhaps even more valuable than the current polling. Right now the aggregate of polling indicates a slim but comfortable (roughly 4 point) lead for Clinton. Selzer could match that, or she could say the race is tighter. She could also have Bernie in the lead or Hillary by a larger margin.

I do have to admit I'm worried the final momentum swing has gone in Hillary's favor. Something about the last few days have felt like a stallout, and the last few polls have leaned her way. But the only poll that matters is the one on Monday, and nobody should give up hope until the results for that one is in

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
9. But four Iowa polls have come out within the last 6 days, with Bernie ahead
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 03:35 AM
Jan 2016

She's been ahead in some polls too.

However, I fail to see how she has a lead right now. If anything, her campaign is tanking.

And aggregate polling in Iowa right now---would not be accurate. You can't look at polls from 2 and 3 weeks ago (and beyond) and aggregate them with a poll that comes out three days before the caucus--and expect that to tell you where you are NOW.

That's ridiculous. Iowans vote in three days. A highly reliable, accurate poll will give you a good idea of where the race is.

Unfortunately, there is a lot of junk polling out there. It is disheartening. I've seen polling data (from Monmoth, Loras, etc.) that is so obviously flawed and ridiculous. There are some lazy pollsters out there. I've kind of grown wearing of reading into the tall weeds, when a poll is released.

That's why it's so refreshing to find someone like Selzer who is following science-based methodologies and making an attempt to be a professional. That's why I'm looking forward to her findings.

Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #9)

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
15. Happy to help. These 3 polls that show Clinton losing to Sanders in Iowa--released this week.
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 12:27 PM
Jan 2016

These were found after a ten second Google search. There are others out there.

Why would you say, "False" without, at least, doing a simple Google search?

Quinnipiac poll released on Tuesday, January 26. Clinton 49, Sanders 45 (Bernie ahead by 4)
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2319

CBS poll released Monday, January 25--Sanders 47, Clinton 46 (Bernie ahead by 1)
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-sanders-catches-clinton-in-iowa-leads-big-in-new-hampshire/

CNN poll released on Sunday, January 24. Sanders 51, Clinton 43 (Bernie ahead by 8)
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/21/politics/iowa-poll-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-donald-trump-ted-cruz/

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
24. Here are the aggregates. I will post them without editorial comment
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 01:06 PM
Jan 2016
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html


Last four polls show Hillary Clinton in the lead, according to Real Clear Politics




http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-caucus



Last four polls show Hillary Clinton in the lead, according to Huffington Post


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/#polls-only



Last four polls show Hillary Clinton in the lead, according to 538




BTW, in aggregate polling only the most recent polls are included in the average, the older ones drop off.

Response to CoffeeCat (Original post)

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
17. I thought it was bizarre that Clinton supporters only were disparaging Ann Selzer and The Iowa Poll
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 12:35 PM
Jan 2016

But when you look at the history, I think they are afraid of the results. And who knows, maybe the results will show Clinton winning. Maybe their fears are unfounded.

It appears that accuracy and science-based polling methods is cause for alarm. Concerted alarm.

I find that telling.

I also found Mark Penn's attack on Selzer very telling. After Selzer released her 2008 Iowa Poll--which showed Obama defeating Clinton with a surge of Independent voters and first-time caucus goers--Penn attempted to discredit Selzer. Turns out, Selzer's 2008 caucus predictions were practically prescient.

The Clinton campaign appears to be turning on the same Selzer/Iowa Poll attacks, even before the numbers are released.

I think that's telling--probably for a multitude of reasons.

 

99th_Monkey

(19,326 posts)
25. It's great that Selzer includes the 'new voters' factor.
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 02:20 PM
Jan 2016

I haven't seen much of that in all the polling that goes on.

So the numbers are getting released TODAY?? I don't see them anywhere on DU yet.

do you know what time the release is slated for?

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
29. Link to article here. Results live streamed at 5:30 at dmregister.com
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 02:40 PM
Jan 2016
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/27/final-iowa-poll-before-caucuses-released-saturday/79411100/

Results of the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll before the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses will be released at 5:45 p.m. Saturday.

The most recent Iowa Poll, conducted in early January, showed neck-and-neck races between Republicans Ted Cruz and Donald Trump and Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in their quests for their party’s presidential nominations.

The results will be available at DesMoinesRegister.com and in Sunday’s editions of the Register.

Des MoinesRegister.com viewers also can watch a livestream at 5:30 p.m. Saturday in which J. Ann Selzer, who conducts the Iowa Poll, will discuss general findings of the poll before horse-race results are announced at 5:45 p.m.
 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
16. Let me guess...if it shows Bernie in the lead
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 12:33 PM
Jan 2016

the skies have opened and this poll came down from heaven and only fools and Hillary fans would dare dispute it.

If it shows Hillary in the lead, its an obvious conspiracy against Bernie and only fools and Hillary fans would believe such an clear pack of lies!

Is that about it?

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
18. No matter what the result of the Iowa Poll
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 12:41 PM
Jan 2016

I will view the result as an excellent (but not perfect) snapshot of the race--very close to what it actually is in Iowa.

And I've said multiple times--I have no idea what the result will be. The polls are all over the map right now. Selzer had Clinton ahead by 2 in her last poll, which was released in early January.

I will accept her result as the most scientifically accurate and sound snapshot of the race in Iowa. She's just that accurate.

I'm nervous about this poll being released.

I don't know where your snark is coming from. No one, including myself, has given any indication that if Hillary is winning in the Iowa Poll that the results will be touted; and if Bernie is losing the poll will be dismissed.

I've said the opposite, in fact.

I consider her findings to be sound--regardless of the outcome for Hillary or Sanders.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
22. I hear you
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 12:54 PM
Jan 2016

tensions are high right now and the caucuses are about to happen.

We're all a little snarky right now, for sure.

rurallib

(62,406 posts)
27. I was polled in this one
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 02:28 PM
Jan 2016

so am quite interested.

There is a question of some looming weather Monday which could really upset the apple cart.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
31. I just read that Monday should be clear weather--and no snow
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 02:47 PM
Jan 2016

Looks like we're supposed to get a bit of snow on Sunday and some ice that could make for tricky travel conditions on Sunday.

Then, clear on Monday. No precipitation.

However, sometime on Tuesday a big snowstorm hits. Snow is forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday.

I think the Iowa caucuses dodged a significant bullet with the snow in Iowa!!

http://www.kcci.com/weather/tracking-tuesday-storm-system/37706018
TUESDAY STORM:
The storm everyone is watching is forecast Tuesday through Wednesday morning.

National Weather Service forecasters said moderate to heavy snowfall and strong winds are forecast.

The latest forecast models show at least 1-3 inches across most of Iowa with 6-10 inches possible in some areas, but projected snow totals are still taking shape in the models.

Buzz cook

(2,471 posts)
32. 60% new voters means
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 04:06 PM
Jan 2016

About a 100% increase in voter turnout. Does that sound likely?

An increase in democratic voters that large would mean it wouldn't matter who runs.

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