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Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 08:53 PM Jan 2016

The Des Moines Register poll is excellent for Sanders -- five key takeaway points

First, the overall result is within the +/-4% margin of error with Sanders at 42% to Clinton's 45%.

Second, the "famously accurate" 2008 DMR poll understated Obama's result by 5.6% and understated Edwards' result by 5.7%.

Third, there has been a HUGE divergence between the robo-call polls which favor Clinton and ALL other polls which show a tie, and the DMR polls confirms the non-robo-call polls, and when you aggregate the new DMR poll with all of those other polls, the race in Iowa remains a dead heat:



Fourth, Sanders is crushing among nonreligious voters, those under 35, independents, first-time caucusgoers, those who say the system favors the rich, and liberals:

nonreligious
67% - Sanders
27% - Clinton

among those under 35
63% - Sanders
27% - Clinton

independents
55% - Sanders
30% - Clinton

first-time caucusgoers
53% - Sanders
34% - Clinton

system favors the rich
50% - Sanders
39% - Clinton

liberals
51% - Sanders
41% - Clinton

Finally, 51% say Sanders is the candidate who cares most about people like them.

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The Des Moines Register poll is excellent for Sanders -- five key takeaway points (Original Post) Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 OP
So much spin...bottom line is that Hillary is up by 3. Nt ProudToBeLiberal Jan 2016 #1
Might want to look up "margin of error." Or not. Either way, we'll have more data Monday night. Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #3
“Most of the ways you look at it, she’s stronger than the three-point race would suggest,” ProudToBeLiberal Jan 2016 #6
hc definitely wins with wealthy democrats...from the link questionseverything Jan 2016 #62
It means "Not the best news for the 'Inevitable' one. NowSam Jan 2016 #9
I've been trying to figure this out. pangaia Jan 2016 #27
Your guess is as good as mine. NowSam Jan 2016 #28
HA !!! pangaia Jan 2016 #34
Post removed Post removed Jan 2016 #21
I thought Selzer was also going to give some estimates for how many winter is coming Jan 2016 #2
It is built into her numbers but I don't see where that part of her methodology is published yet Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #4
Her poll has 34% kcjohn1 Jan 2016 #7
Thanks. Assuming a typical amount of turnout for first-time caucus goers winter is coming Jan 2016 #10
This poll is done exactly right - I accurately projected first time turn out for Obama CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #25
If you're in Texas, I can't stand behind you saltpoint Jan 2016 #5
Trailing is never excellent news KingFlorez Jan 2016 #8
What matters in the polls right now is the youth vote which is strongly favoring JDPriestly Jan 2016 #51
None of this matters Depaysement Jan 2016 #11
If you have ever frozen you ass off working a GOTV effort, then you know how important it is to know Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #19
Yes I get that Depaysement Jan 2016 #20
So true. And Sanders' supporters are heroes. JDPriestly Jan 2016 #52
Did anyone expect Bernie to get this close 6 months ago? benny05 Jan 2016 #12
I remember wishing he'd turn Dem and run for president. Gregorian Jan 2016 #16
This is good for Bernie. At least his supporters will turn out now, thereismore Jan 2016 #13
Put a little dynamics on it, and it's a different animal. Gregorian Jan 2016 #14
BS - This last Des Moines Registered is the best for identifying last minute trends. CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #24
Gee, what a nice thing to say. senz Jan 2016 #55
I'm dizzy from the spin workinclasszero Jan 2016 #15
+1 NurseJackie Jan 2016 #22
She was supposed to be in the lead by, what, 20 points or so? pangaia Jan 2016 #33
If she wins the caucus by one vote workinclasszero Jan 2016 #36
What an absurd statement. He is ahead by about 15 points in NH. JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #41
No kidding workinclasszero Jan 2016 #42
Then why would 1 delegate more for Clinton in Iowa doom his campaign? JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #43
BULL. If Hillary doesn't win by 10%, it's a LOSS for her. John Poet Jan 2016 #60
It also understated her results by 4 dsc Jan 2016 #17
Good data to consider. nt retrowire Jan 2016 #18
None of that makes a bit of difference CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #23
Spin & Silver Linings.... andrewv1 Jan 2016 #30
Don't try to change the subject CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #38
Well said, You made a good point.... andrewv1 Jan 2016 #50
there's also the variable of the weather thesquanderer Jan 2016 #26
Not really. I read that when it snows, it's the young people who don't show up lunamagica Jan 2016 #29
Could be. I was thinking of this thread... thesquanderer Jan 2016 #31
It sounds reasonable that bad weather would stop older people lunamagica Jan 2016 #35
Who are the least dependable voters CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #39
I never hope for depressed turnout. You know, on principle, I want people to participate in Ed Suspicious Jan 2016 #40
I agree. potone Jan 2016 #48
I think it's important to recognize the enthusiasm gap Trajan Jan 2016 #32
Nope - people in Iowa are very serious about their place in the primary order CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #44
The speculation is over, the best guesses submitted. Half-Century Man Jan 2016 #37
If that is the case, Bernie is in trouble - see Nevada, SC and SEC primary polls CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #45
We'll see how the numbers play out on February 1 and again on February 9. Those results will effect Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #65
The Judean People's Front. nt tblue37 Jan 2016 #47
fucking splitters Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #64
What seems reasonable november3rd Jan 2016 #46
You say.... FrenchieCat Jan 2016 #49
The media is attacking Bernie relentlessly while promoting Clinton. Skwmom Jan 2016 #56
A mirage? Anyone with functioning brain cells can see that the corporate media is in the bag for Skwmom Feb 2016 #66
Very unlikely to happen - check the poll results for states after Iowa and NH CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #59
She does not start with 332. Kentonio Jan 2016 #61
In summary Lithos Jan 2016 #53
On November 2, 1976 in my psych class at my SheilaT Jan 2016 #57
thanks for the analysis grasswire Jan 2016 #54
Your Analysis is terribly flawed CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #58
I'm just reporting the data underlying the poll - if you don't like it, the fault lies with the DMR Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #63

ProudToBeLiberal

(3,964 posts)
6. “Most of the ways you look at it, she’s stronger than the three-point race would suggest,”
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 09:01 PM
Jan 2016

According to the gold standard pollster Ann Selzer.

questionseverything

(9,631 posts)
62. hc definitely wins with wealthy democrats...from the link
Sun Jan 31, 2016, 02:38 PM
Jan 2016

Far more high-income voters prefer Clinton: 57 percent of those with an income of $100,000 or more pick her; 28 percent choose Sanders.

And Clinton wins with 60 percent of caucusgoers who think the system works reasonably well for those who work hard to get ahead, although two-thirds of the Democratic electorate think the system is rigged.

///////////////////////////////



http://thebernreport.com/bernie-sanders-releases-video-on-how-to-caucus-in-iowa/

NowSam

(1,252 posts)
9. It means "Not the best news for the 'Inevitable' one.
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 09:05 PM
Jan 2016

But it does mean that it is pretty close for people with land lines. With the younger generation who were not really included in this poll it is a runaway train for Bernie. We shall see Monday just how much these young people care about their future. I hope these kids will show up and make it absolutely crystal clear in the only poll that really matters. Enough is enough! If voters turn out to vote, BERNIE WILL WIN this thing. If the voters stay home and say it is too cold or "Hey, they don't really need me" then its more of the status quo. I've heard nothing from the other candidates that suggest they won't vote for more war and more enriching of the top 1% while everyone else struggles. The future belongs to the youth and this is your election. You can shape the world or you can settle for for more trickle down. For everything there is a season. Bern Bern Bern. Now is the time. Suit up. Show up. Tell the world, this country belongs to all of us and not just the Oligarchs.

pangaia

(24,324 posts)
27. I've been trying to figure this out.
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:05 PM
Jan 2016

Are most of these polls done through landlines-- robo or otherwise?

--meaning a big percentage 'the kids' are not being polled?

NowSam

(1,252 posts)
28. Your guess is as good as mine.
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:08 PM
Jan 2016

All I can tell you is Bernie is filling stadiums and Hillary is standing in empty bowling alleys. SO maybe the pollsters are calling and all the Bernie fans are in the stadiums while the Clinton fans are home able to answer the phone.

Response to ProudToBeLiberal (Reply #1)

winter is coming

(11,785 posts)
2. I thought Selzer was also going to give some estimates for how many
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 08:56 PM
Jan 2016

independents and first-time voters would likely turn out. I'm not seeing that?

kcjohn1

(751 posts)
7. Her poll has 34%
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 09:02 PM
Jan 2016

First time voters. 08 was 60%+.

She said 34% is what you typically see, and is average. She said she is not turnout expert, but basically her model is build off no surge, but average number of voters.

This is the best news for Sanders. If he is deadheat with an "average'" turnout, any additional turnout is gravy. He doesn't need to repeat Obama in terms of getting 60%+ new voters. Just needs to get above the average.

winter is coming

(11,785 posts)
10. Thanks. Assuming a typical amount of turnout for first-time caucus goers
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 09:05 PM
Jan 2016

is reasonable, but probably an underestimate.

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
25. This poll is done exactly right - I accurately projected first time turn out for Obama
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 10:51 PM
Jan 2016

and no other poll came close to doing that. That's why it is considered the "Gold Standard" of polls and not only for Iowa.


“I will take the Des Moines Register poll, which is the gold standard for polls in Iowa,” Sanders said in late October.

Ann Selzer's secret sauce

saltpoint

(50,986 posts)
5. If you're in Texas, I can't stand behind you
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 08:59 PM
Jan 2016

in my state's primary line to vote because you'll be in your state's primary line voting, but I'd like to nevertheless.

The specific groupings you list suggest to me the future of a political party. Those groups will be crucial components and may tell us a lot of what the party will look like in the next several cycles.

Bernie Sanders doesn't have a whole lot of support from millionaires and billionaires, and while that means their cash goes to others, it also means the dignity of his supporters is felt in the bones and blood and not the wallet.

Encouraging post for these next few days -- and for several next few presidential cycles. Thank you.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
51. What matters in the polls right now is the youth vote which is strongly favoring
Sun Jan 31, 2016, 12:41 AM
Jan 2016

Sanders and which predicts a strong swing to the left in future elections. Sanders is building a movement, not just running for election.

Thus, Sanders cannot lose.

Depaysement

(1,835 posts)
11. None of this matters
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 09:09 PM
Jan 2016

Turnout matters. If BS supporters get to and stay in the caucus, he will win.

The whole world is watching.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
19. If you have ever frozen you ass off working a GOTV effort, then you know how important it is to know
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 09:52 PM
Jan 2016

that the race is within grasp. Hope will warm you on a cold night better than a fireside whiskey.

For all the heroes working all weekend and all day Monday to get out the vote, it is comfort and inspiration for the last sprint to the finish line to know that everything they have hoped and sweated and frozen to achieve is now within grasp.

Depaysement

(1,835 posts)
20. Yes I get that
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 10:08 PM
Jan 2016

I have worked scores of races from top to bottom. And you're right.

Btw, the crowds motivate a lot better. So is being able to canvass your constituents twice in your precincts.

benny05

(5,322 posts)
12. Did anyone expect Bernie to get this close 6 months ago?
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 09:11 PM
Jan 2016

I didn't.

I just hope the final delegate count is closer than the polls, but it will depend on MOM and whether his supporters, if there isn't viability in their caucus precinct, can be persuaded. I think MOM's support may be underestimated though.

I'm pretty impressed with Bernie so far though. All of his funds come from 95% and not the top income folks. In that poll, it said those making 100K or more were in HC's court.

Gregorian

(23,867 posts)
16. I remember wishing he'd turn Dem and run for president.
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 09:41 PM
Jan 2016

Yes, I thought there was no way Americans would give this guy two seconds of their time. After all, they never seem to recognize a good thing. Wrong. Very wrong. The more wrong, the happier I get.

thereismore

(13,326 posts)
13. This is good for Bernie. At least his supporters will turn out now,
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 09:18 PM
Jan 2016

knowing that it's "not in the bag just yet."

Gregorian

(23,867 posts)
14. Put a little dynamics on it, and it's a different animal.
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 09:36 PM
Jan 2016

Since we're at the intersection point of the curves, one could argue that these first voting numbers wouldn't be representative of the overall numbers in the primary, since Bernie's curve has a positive slope, versus Clinton's, and that they intersect at this present time. But that makes some assumptions. Like their rates of change of slope are zero. Other than that, go Bernie go!

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
24. BS - This last Des Moines Registered is the best for identifying last minute trends.
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 10:48 PM
Jan 2016

You're whistling past the grave yard.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
42. No kidding
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:38 PM
Jan 2016

I'm talking about Iowa.

NH is a gimme for Bernie. Hopefully his one and only victory. Enjoy it.

 

John Poet

(2,510 posts)
60. BULL. If Hillary doesn't win by 10%, it's a LOSS for her.
Sun Jan 31, 2016, 07:18 AM
Jan 2016

After all, she was "inevitable" and started out with a 50 percentage point lead.

Presidents and frontrunners have quit their race before, having "only" lead their competitors by around 10 percent in an early contest. It was a major embarrassment for them.

Lyndon Johnson. Edmund Muskie.

dsc

(52,130 posts)
17. It also understated her results by 4
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 09:42 PM
Jan 2016

so if Bernie gets Obama's 5.9 and she gets her 4, then she still wins, sounds good to me.

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
23. None of that makes a bit of difference
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 10:46 PM
Jan 2016

The only statistic which any one will care about after the caucuses is who won and who lost.

And all six of those factor are already in the final poll results - so they don't mean diddly.

By the way, don't be proud of the "first time caucusgoers" poll findings - first time caucusgoers are historically the least likely to actually show up and caucus.

You trying to find a silver lining in a big bad black cloud.

andrewv1

(168 posts)
30. Spin & Silver Linings....
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:13 PM
Jan 2016

Is that what we've been hearing regarding unsecured email servers since yesterday?

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
38. Don't try to change the subject
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:30 PM
Jan 2016

In stock market talk - all of that is figured into the price of the stock. In political talk - that's all figured into the the final poll results.

In Iowa all the talk about how "Bernie did this - how horrible" and "Hillary did that - how terrible" doesn't mean squat any more. The only thing that means anything is who caucuses where and what is the final delegate count.

thesquanderer

(11,955 posts)
26. there's also the variable of the weather
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:04 PM
Jan 2016

Sanders supporters should hope for snow, likely to disproportionately reduce turnout for older people over younger ones

lunamagica

(9,967 posts)
29. Not really. I read that when it snows, it's the young people who don't show up
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:12 PM
Jan 2016

Someone from IA said this.

lunamagica

(9,967 posts)
35. It sounds reasonable that bad weather would stop older people
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:18 PM
Jan 2016

But this person from Iowa said said he had never seen anyone 18-25 - and he clearly stated NO ONE in that age group show up when the weather was bad.

We'll see..

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
39. Who are the least dependable voters
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:34 PM
Jan 2016

Those who tell pollsters that they are going to caucus for the first time.

And remember, Hillary has by far the best ground game in Iowa. If a 74 year olds want a rides to and from their caucus sites, all they have to do is make a call.

Ed Suspicious

(8,879 posts)
40. I never hope for depressed turnout. You know, on principle, I want people to participate in
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:36 PM
Jan 2016

government. If my guy didn't get out enough votes, then he needs to figure out how to do better, but I don't want him to win due to weather. I want him to win due to people coming out for him.

potone

(1,701 posts)
48. I agree.
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:59 PM
Jan 2016

Our primary system is screwed up enough, with small states coming before large ones like California and New York, so I don't want to see anything that depresses the turnout. People who won't show up for the caucuses or primaries might be less likely to vote in the general election.

On another note, can we all stop acting like the election hinges on who wins in Iowa? It is not automatically the end of the campaign for whoever does not win and nor is it the determinant factor in who wins the nomination. Let's all try to remain civil. Please!

 

Trajan

(19,089 posts)
32. I think it's important to recognize the enthusiasm gap
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:15 PM
Jan 2016

Hugely favors Sanders, by a country mile ...

I think the crowd sizes will translate to real support at the polls ... There is so much riding on this one ... Those huge crowds are going to come out to vote ...

Maybe they just like driving to rallies but hate driving to vote? ... That wouldn't make much sense ...

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
44. Nope - people in Iowa are very serious about their place in the primary order
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:41 PM
Jan 2016

Last edited Sun Jan 31, 2016, 03:33 AM - Edit history (1)

The the people who are regular caucusgoers attend their caucuses come hell or high water every 4 years. Remember that Hillary has a great ground game in Iowa - if someone wants a ride to and from a caucus site, they just need to make a call.

In addition, those who tell pollsters that they are going to caucus for the first time, are the least dependable voters.

In addition, if college students caucus in their college towns, they will concentrate the Sanders vote resulting in fewer delegates.

But this is a great poll that is well known for taking into consideration a surge of new caucusgoers (like when it predicted and unexpected Obama victory in 2008 for that reason), so all of the above is all ready accounted for in this poll.

Half-Century Man

(5,279 posts)
37. The speculation is over, the best guesses submitted.
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:20 PM
Jan 2016

Monday is simply the beginning of a long process. At no point was either candidate going to throw in the towel because of unfavorable results.

Years ago, I had a western civilization professor who make the point the better than half of the most vicious wars had been fought between different subgroups of the same religion, Catholics vs Protestants, Shia vs Sunni, etc.
His point was each subset see the others as Heretics, holders of a twisted version of the truth. By presenting a sullied version of their beliefs to the world, they damaged the standing of the greater whole. The Heretics were deserving of a deeper hate, they had heard the call and distorted it. They weren't like the unbelievers, who could be forgiven a bit for never accepting the faith in the first place
due to outside influences.

Monday is not the end of this, merely the beginning. Those who prefer a candidate that you don't are not heretics, just really really really really really really really really really confused.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
65. We'll see how the numbers play out on February 1 and again on February 9. Those results will effect
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 12:11 AM
Feb 2016

all later contests.

 

november3rd

(1,113 posts)
46. What seems reasonable
Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:53 PM
Jan 2016

Clinton will keep fighting to the very end, no matter what;

Clinton starts with the highest numbers she's going to have in any state: her numbers can really only go down because of name recognition, familiarity;

Sanders's numbers will trend up everywhere, and take votes from Clinton in the process;

The media heavily favor Clinton and will disparage Sanders at every opportunity;

If "The Political Revolution" turns into a genuine national Movement, then Sanders has a chance to win the nomination and the election, and, since it will have to be a tidal wave of grass roots support--with all the media and all the big money against him--it will favorably affect Congress, possibly in a big way.

Otherwise, barring an indictment for emails, Clinton is still a lock if she wins Iowa.

FrenchieCat

(68,867 posts)
49. You say....
Sun Jan 31, 2016, 12:34 AM
Jan 2016
The media heavily favor Clinton and will disparage Sanders at every opportunity;


I say the opposite...getting headline breaking news on your emails, 2 days before the big voting day, while your opponent get cute interviews about his great health, after being reported to be surging for the past 3 weeks....

No, the media is Not on Clinton's side...that's only the mirage you want to see! The media have been protecting Bernie, so they can savage him mercifully in the general election. So if you think the media's been hard on him, you wouldn't even survive when they really come for him!

Skwmom

(12,685 posts)
66. A mirage? Anyone with functioning brain cells can see that the corporate media is in the bag for
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 12:38 AM
Feb 2016

Clinton. That is not a mirage or an opinion - it is a fact.

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
59. Very unlikely to happen - check the poll results for states after Iowa and NH
Sun Jan 31, 2016, 04:06 AM
Jan 2016

Between them Iowa and New Hampshire have 85 delegates - Bernie is slightly behind in Iowa and well ahead in NH.

However, Clinton starts out with a lead of 332 over Sanders.

Then Hillary is well ahead by 19.5 and 29.5 respectively in Nevada and South Carolina which have a total of 96 delegates.

Then comes the so called "Southeastern Conference Primaries". 14 states (many of them Southern) and territories (like American Somoa) have their primaries on the same day - 3/1/16. A total of 1,000 delegates will be awarded that day. Hillary has a 20 point to 57 point lead in every current poll for that set of primaries.

By 2/2/16 Bernie's campaign will be hanging on by a thread and it doesn't get any better after that.

I see no way that Bernie can win the nomination.





 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
57. On November 2, 1976 in my psych class at my
Sun Jan 31, 2016, 03:29 AM
Jan 2016

junior college, at the very beginning of class the professor said, "As I'm sure you all know today is election day. I hope all of you will exercise your franchise. But, I want to remind you that a low voter turnout favors Republicans, and so if you're a Republican, don't vote."

So on Monday in Iowa, if you favor Hillary Clinton, knowing that a low voter turnout favors her, don't vote.

(Back in 1976 I was the only student in the class who got the joke and actually laughed. Me, I voted for Jimmy Carter.)

grasswire

(50,130 posts)
54. thanks for the analysis
Sun Jan 31, 2016, 01:35 AM
Jan 2016

The "kids" and the other constituencies of Bernie are not going to let this once in a lifetime candidate slip away.

I am proud to be a Bernie supporter, standing on the right side of history and against oligarchy and warmongering and fat financiers.

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
58. Your Analysis is terribly flawed
Sun Jan 31, 2016, 03:39 AM
Jan 2016

Everything you pointed to is already contained within the results of the poll. It is like saying that everything that is known about a stock is already included in its current price.

This poll is telling us that there is approximately an 85% chance that Clinton will win in Iowa.

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