The Best Pollster In Iowa Just Released Its Final Survey — How Accurate Has It Been?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

The final Des Moines Register poll was just released, showing Donald Trump leading the Republican field in Iowa with 28 percent, Ted Cruz with 23 percent and Marco Rubio with 15 percent. Hillary Clinton was ahead of Bernie Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent, on the Democratic side. The political world — us included — was eagerly awaiting this survey, as Ann Selzer, who has conducted the Register’s polls since the 1988 caucuses, has a very good track record. But just how predictive of the final results have Selzer’s polls been? History suggests they’re a good indicator of what will happen in Monday’s Iowa caucuses, though there is room for a candidate or two to surprise.

I’ve gathered Selzer’s final caucus polls1 for Republicans and Democrats since she started at the Register. For each race, I’ve calculated the difference between all candidates’ polled percentage of support and their final share of the vote.2

Selzer’s final poll has correctly projected every single winner except for Republican Rick Santorum in 2012.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-final-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-is-out-how-accurate-will-it-be/

I am a big fan of Ann!

[lunamagica]

1. Impressive!