Bernie Sanders might have an electability problem

[riversedge]

Bernie Sanders might have an electability problem

His campaign says he would expand the map of battleground states, but pollsters suggest he’s misreading the data.

By Steven Shepard

01/29/16 06:42 PM EST



Indeed, public pollsters who’ve conducted surveys in both Iowa and New Hampshire caution that the Sanders team might be misreading the data the campaign is relying on to make its case that Sanders would broaden the Democratic electorate and make more states competitive by luring young, more independently minded voters.

Patrick Murray, who runs the Monmouth University Polling Institute in New Jersey, said the independent voters who are backing Sanders in the primary are more liberal in orientation and would be likely to vote for the Democrat in November anyway.

“It’s a big leap of faith to take primary poll data and jump to the general,” added Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which has conducted recent polls for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal. “You do ask the questions, and it tells you something: Hillary has a problem with independents, and Bernie doesn’t. Fast forward to September, October and November. The campaigns will change, and that dynamic will be different.”


The increasing competitiveness of the presidential race has left many Democrats to consider how a Sanders nomination would affect their party’s chances at keeping the White House, and it’s become a frequent talking point on the campaign trail as Clinton and Sanders’ make their final pitches to voters in both early states.

The Clinton campaign insists the former secretary of state is the strongest potential candidate in the fall, and Clinton allies are warning that picking Sanders would jeopardize not only Democrats’ hold on the presidency, but also damage the party’s prospects to win back the Senate and make inroads on Republicans’ wide House majority.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/bernie-sanders-might-have-an-electability-problem-218432#ixzz3yoUp01Fr

[jfern]

1. He does better in general election polls

And has much better favorabilities. So he's more electable. And if Hillary bets indicted, that will be a HUGE difference.

[RBInMaine]

39. Indicted? That's INSANE. National polls right now don't mean SHIT. If Bernie is nominated we will

hear "socialist communist socialist communist socialist communist....!!!!!" night and day. It would be horrendous.

[nyabingi]

43. We already hear that night and day

Haven't you been paying attention to the eight years of Republican attacks on Obama?

[w4rma]

2. Bernie Sanders Is Making Surprising Gains With Less Affluent Whites

There is at least some evidence that Mr. Sanders is performing better among Southern white voters than Mr. Obama did, not merely trading more affluent for less affluent voters to no obvious advantage as appears to be the case farther north. In South Carolina, polls often show Mr. Sanders in a close race or even ahead of Mrs. Clinton among white voters — his worst recent showing is an 11-point deficit, with 40 percent of the vote. In August, an automated poll showed a close race in West Virginia, one of Mr. Obama’s worst states in 2008.

There are some important consequences to Mr. Sanders’s strength among less affluent Southern white voters. It could give him a chance to do far better than Mr. Obama in states like West Virginia or Kentucky, and the chance to compensate — at least partly — for faring worse than Mr. Obama among black voters in states like Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

More generally, Mr. Sanders’s success in uniting less affluent white voters and liberals with a populist message is a fairly novel development that might augur well for progressives in Democratic politics.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/upshot/bernie-sanders-is-making-surprising-gains-with-less-affluent-whites.html

[merrily]

3. Hillary Clinton has multiple electabilty problems.

[Art_from_Ark]

7. MULTIPLE problems

Not the least of which is the FBI probe.

And even though she spent nearly 20 years in Arkansas, no one in my extended Arkansas family supports her. Most are for Bernie, a couple are for Trump. No one is for Hillary, and no one even gives the former governor, Mike Huckabee, a second thought.

[SammyWinstonJack]

28. Yuuuuuuge problems in the GE.

[merrily]

29. That is the one I meant.

[blue neen]

4. I cannot see Bernie winning Pennsylvania.

He's great and has some wonderful ideas in his platform, hence my continued indecision.

The candidate who has the greatest chance to win the General is something that weighing on my mind, though. There is too much at stake. There's a real chance we can take back a Senate seat in PA, and some Congressional districts, too.

[kristopher]

6. Vote your self interest and I can see him sweeping 50 states.

You like his policies so vote for the policies you like. It really isn't complicated.

[blue neen]

9. So, you know the voters of Pennsylvania very well, then?

Actually, it really is complicated.

[kristopher]

10. Yes I know them. No it isn't complicated.

Vote for what makes your life better instead of what you fear, dislike or hate.

FUD is the greatest manipulative device that exists.

Fear
Uncertainty
Doubt

It is a mind killer.

Don't let them kill your mind.

Vote your economic self interest.

[blue neen]

14. It doesn't matter if it's Bernie or Hillary in the White House in 2017.

They'll have a greater likelihood of getting something done with Democrats in the Senate and Congress. Pat Toomey's Senate seat is there for the taking. We need it.

Less Republicans in office nationwide and in this state will make my life better.

[kristopher]

25. If Hillary wins (a big if) it will be a squeaker, and no coattails.

She will turn out the vote for Republicans.

If Bernie's economic self interest campaign puts him over the line, it will probably be a hefty win and we will pick up enough downstream spots to make a good start on switching the center of power in DC and the states.

You choose.

[blue neen]

26. The Phildelphia Inquirer sees it far differently:

"Some even dream of seeing Sanders, an avowed socialist, atop the Democratic ticket, which might cancel out any challenge posed by Cruz or Trump."

"I'd much rather run against Bernie Sanders than Hillary Clinton, absolutely," Gleason said."

Rob Gleason is the Chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20160126_Will_Trump_or_Cruz_sink_Toomey_re-election_bid_.html

Yes, I will choose, with my head and my heart.

Thank you for your time.

[merrily]

30. How the Enquirer sees it is no surprise.

[blue neen]

37. Well really, it's the viewpoint of the Republican Party of Pennsylvania.

The Inquirer was just reporting it.

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

36. He's not an "avowed socialist". Sounds like corporate media.

[blue neen]

38. Yes, it is media.

.

[w4rma]

11. You had better hope that Bernie can do it, since he is a better campaigner than Clinton.

If Bernie can't do it, Clinton *definitely* can't do it.

[blue neen]

12. Who won the Democratic Pennsylvania Primary in 2008?

?

[w4rma]

13. Irrelevent, since the topic is electability: Obama won the Pennsylvania Electorial Votes. (nt)

[blue neen]

16. No, hardly irrelevant...and yes the topic is electability.

The relevance is this: Hillary Clinton won the PA Primary in 2008 in a year and at the time of year when Barack Obama clearly had the momentum and had the so-called "electability".

The other point is this: Hillary Clinton is popular in PA and well-known. The electorate in PA is not much changed demographically since 2008.

I will support either candidate in the General Election.

[w4rma]

17. Electability is being able to get those electoral votes in the general election. Obama did it twice.

Clinton's only campaign win was a single term as a U.S. Senator where "I represented Wall Street", as she says.

[blue neen]

18. Yep.

And I have doubts as to whether Bernie Sanders can get those electoral votes in PA. Sorry that you don't like that answer. Hillary Clinton is well known and popular in PA as proven by her Primary win. Bernie Sanders is not.

[w4rma]

20. Sanders has the *highest* rating of any Congressperson. The more voters get to know him the better

they like him. The opposite occurs with Clinton. The more she exposes herself to voters, the LESS they like of her. We dodged a bullet by not making her the Democratic nominee in 2008. We need to dodge her bullet again, now.

[kristopher]

27. How do you think Hillary's latest stance on guns is going to fly in PA?

Do you reckon that anyone will salute when that is run up the flagpole next to the ones with her going after obama from the right on guns?

They already have the ad written; and most people remember her saying this stuff clearly.


From the GOP's site, there is a lot more.
https://www.gop.com/in-2008-clinton-attacked-obama-on-guns-from-the-right/

I know I know, let me help you:
"The same Republican Geniuses that have organized the 2015/6 Rep primary season are playing 6th dimensional triominoes and making the ad just to help Bernie" right?
You're welcome.
(ETA: I was writing this as you were posting #26 - am I good or what?)

That is Pennsylvania and frankly I think it is one of the worst shots Hillary has. She might squeak out a win nationally, but I think PA is going to be a pretty tough slog.

Just remember one important and ironclad fact - all life's activities are by their nature economic activities, including us when electing/choosing leaders. The Purpose for which we - as the creatures we are - choose leaders is not normally for being in a state or near state of war. It is for the administrative requirements of the domestic and political economies that form our system of life.

ttfn

P.S. Don't forget to vote for your economic self interest - no one else can.

[blue neen]

41. I don't disagree with that. It could definitely be tough.

They'll find plenty to go after, though, no matter if it's Bernie or Hillary.

[kristopher]

44. The people are going to love Bernie the man,

[merrily]

32. You don't sound undecided at all.

[blue neen]

40. Well, I am.

The PA Primary is not until April, possibly being moved up to March to make it more meaningful. A lot can happen between now and then.

I didn't decide very early in 2008 either.

[kristopher]

5. Yep, he might. Then again, maybe not.

I'm impressed as hell with the idea that his POLICIES have better than 70% support across the board.

I read his 26% support from Republicans in Vermont as a demonstration of what that kind of policy support translates into at the polling place.

Bernie has the potential to make electoral history.

[Live and Learn]

8. Hillary definitely has an electability problem.

I don't know why she insists on proving it again.

[Warren DeMontague]

15. the "strongest"-whose candidacy Dana Milbank, the other day, called "dreary". Who has "failed, again

To connect with voters".

He says her policies are "uninspring" and her politics are "inauthentic".

She "seems calculating and phony"

Mind you, This article had Hillary supporters on DU falling all over themselves to affirm how "spot on" it is.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-would-be-insane-to-nominate-bernie-sanders/2016/01/26/0590e624-c472-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html



It is good that her supporters can acknowledge what a weak,"cautious and uninspiring" campaign she is running, but it is patently ridiculous to then assert based upon some nebulous metrics (Milbank: "Americans have never elected a socialist president"; yeah, and until 2008 they had never elected an African American one with an unusual name, either) that she is still somehow the "stronger" candidate than the guy who IS taking brave and bold positions, who IS generating enthusiasm.

If she's such a strong candidate, why isnt she beating him easily, like she was supposed to?

[stonecutter357]

19. K&R!

[Jenny_92808]

21. hahahahahahahaha!

Go Bernie!

[Betty Karlson]

22. Key phrase:

The Clinton campaign insists the former secretary of state is the strongest potential candidate in the fall, and Clinton allies are warning that picking Sanders would jeopardize not only Democrats’ hold on the presidency, but also damage the party’s prospects to win back the Senate and make inroads on Republicans’ wide House majority.

And reality insists that it's the other way around. Because the status quo is untenable and the voters (especially the young voters) know it.

[Paka]

23. Anything I could possibly say...

to the bogus obstacles you present would get me slammed, so I will limit myself to this meaningless comment.

[vercetti2021]

24. Oh please

Hillary would have a harder time in the GE than Bernie. He doesn't have baggage like she does nor flip flops on issues. GO BERNIE GO!!!

[left-of-center2012]

31. Clinton supporter says Bernie has an electability problem

OMG !
I'm shocked !!!

[merrily]

34. And his supporters are lower than whale poo.

Don't vote for him, I tells ya. For the love of God, just don't.

Oh, the horrorrrrrrrr!

[wtawilltaw]

33. Clinton = Permanent Republican Majority

With a Bernie win there's a reason to throw the bums out even "democrats". With Clinton you are voting 100% for the status quo and nothing will change. There would be no reason to vote. At that point people really wouldn't care if Babylon fell down.

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

35. Just another he's unelectable shill.

[Nanjeanne]

42. Year after Year We Are Told Independents Decide Elections

Independents decide elections. This has been the talking point for a long time. Bernie does better with Independents. Ergo - new talking point - Bernie can't win.

Sheesh.

[NurseJackie]

45. Excellent post!

[Gothmog]

46. I do not believe that Sanders is viable in the general election