Nate Silver: Hillary Clinton May Win Iowa After All

[ProudToBeLiberal]

It would be entirely reasonable to presume that Bernie Sanders has momentum in Iowa. He’s gained on Hillary Clinton in national polls. He keeps pulling further ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire. And he’s made substantial gains in Iowa relative to his position late last year. December polls of Iowa showed Sanders behind by an average of 16 percentage points; the race is much closer now.

There’s just one problem: Sanders’s momentum may have stalled right when it counts the most.

The Des Moines Register’s Iowa poll released Saturday, for example, had Clinton leading Sanders by 3 percentage points. That means Iowa is close and winnable for Sanders; polling errors of 5 or even 10 percentage points are not uncommon in the caucuses. But it also means that Sanders hasn’t gained on Clinton. The previous Des Moines Register poll, released earlier in January, showed Clinton up by 2 percentage points instead.

The same story holds for other polling companies that have surveyed Iowa twice in January. A couple of these pollsters — American Research Group and Quinnipiac University — show Sanders leading. But they don’t show him gaining; Sanders also led in the previous edition of the ARG and Quinnipiac surveys.

More at http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clinton-may-win-iowa-after-all/

[hollysmom]

1. I thought every time he wrote, Nat Silver said Hillary would win

isn't this kind of weird for him to "now" decide that?
Maybe I missed when he changed his idea of who would win.

[jkbRN]

5. LOL THANK YOU

[reformist2]

7. Exactly. Doesn't he read his own news releases???

[DisgustipatedinCA]

15. The goalposts have had wheels installed. nt

[ram2008]

2. Nate is all over the place this election cycle

I think Hillary is favored there a tiny bit, but he has missed the mark constantly in his forecasting so far.

[enid602]

3. dynamic

Bernie's definitely stalled. Maybe he needs to add something to his routine. But remember, Obama did surge nationally in late Jan/early Feb 2008. The dynamic was quite a bit different then, as you had Edwards, Richardson and Biden (who, together garnered over 20% in the polls) pull out at the same time.

[ProudToBeLiberal]

4. The Iowa Caucus was on Jan. 3 in 2008. nt

[enid602]

10. dynamic

But Edwards hung in there until 1/31; he was the last to do so. I think the diaspora of Edwards, Biden and Richardson supporters fueled Obama. And his campaign and polling were red hot. Like a freight train. Just don't see that same dynamic this go round. PS: Funny that Iowa doesn't caucus on the same day each election.

[Warren Stupidity]

6. Iowa is close, Clinton will probably squeak through, but she is going to get crushed in NH.

[bigdarryl]

9. Word of caution.

I would not count Hillary out in NH I'm just saying.

[Warren Stupidity]

12. As a 30 year resident of this state: the crushing is on its way.

It is not going to be close.

[reformist2]

11. I still think the enthusiasm factor will sway about 10% of the caucusgoers, giving Bernie the win.

All else being equal, which crowd would you want to stand in - the older, staid, and more "responsible" group of voters standing for Hillary, or the group of 20-and 30-somethings cheering wildly for Bernie?

[Nanjeanne]

8. I'm confused

I thought Nate was pretty much saying it was an 80 or 90% guarantee that Hillary would win Iowa.

[JRLeft]

13. Right

[Puglover]

14. He was.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511099280

I cannot follow these people.