No voter registration surge has happened in Iowa this season like it did in 2008

[stevenleser]

Forgive the NR Review link and cite but it is what it is:

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/430546/iowa-caucuses-donald-trump-vs-ted-cruz-turnout-key

Democratic caucus turnout jumped from roughly 124,000 in 2004 to nearly 240,000 in 2008, thanks to Barack Obama’s ability to new participants to the process. But in that case, the massive spike was predicted by an enormous increase in voter registration, from roughly 533,000 registered Democrats in 2004 to more than 606,000 four years later.


------------------------------------
However...

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/29/upshot/surge-for-sanders-or-trump-in-iowa-voter-registration-doesnt-suggest-it.html?_r=0

Voter Registration Doesn’t Point to Huge Iowa Surge

Most striking is the relatively slow increase in the number of voters registered as Democrats, far slower than it was ahead of the 2008 caucus. The increase for Democrats this year looks much more like the increase for Republicans ahead of the 2012 contest.

The increase in registration among Republicans in recent months looks much healthier in comparison, and could be consistent with a higher turnout than in recent cycles.

Over all, new voter registration is not only falling short of the big registration surge of the 2008 cycle, but is also running just slightly ahead of the increase before the 2012 caucuses, which was competitive only on the Republican side.

A lower turnout could spell trouble for candidates like Mr. Sanders and Mr. Trump.

The latest voter registration statistics for Iowa, through early January, show that the number of registered voters increased by only about 10,000 voters over the last few months.

[JRLeft]

1. If true it's a wrap.

[lostnfound]

25. Election Day registration is now allowed in Iowa. Nt

[JRLeft]

27. Yeah I found that out hours later.

[John Poet]

38. Anger with George W. Bush could have accounted for much

of the big jump in Democratic party registration in 2008, as much as the candidacy of Obama...

[artislife]

2. Interesting point about how slowly the dems have gained new voters.

The fact that you can switch on caucus day means you don't have to be a lifelong dem to caucus in the dem race.


This should be kind of scary for the Democratic Party.

[CoffeeCat]

3. Iowa caucus goers can register to vote right before the caucus

Why go through the rigamarole of registering when you can do it the night of the caucus? It takes 5 minutes.

I've been canvassing in Iowa, and many people have expressed this sentiment. They're still not registered. They'll do it that night.

I talked with a woman outside of the Des Moines office today. She was canvassing for Bernie with friends. She told me that she's never voted, EVER. She's yet to register too.

Isn't that interesting?

This will happen quite a bit the night of the caucus. The lines were very long with Obama in 08.

These people are officially off the political grid until they register the night of the caucus.

[yeoman6987]

7. Poor woman probably got a Cruz report card.

[libdem4life]

10. LOL

[TeamPooka]

19. Historically pre-registration shows stronger intent on the part of voters rather than leaving it to

the last minute where plans can then change at the last minute.
If you have tickets in advance to a play or ballgame you're much more likely to attend than if you say I'll buy my tickets at the box office/door.

[CoffeeCat]

23. I don't know...

I have this eerie feeling. Young people aren't exactly the best about pre-planning.

I bet the vast majority of new caucus goers and first-time caucus goers will register that night.

It could be crazy busy.

Your "play or ballgame" analogy doesn't fit for me. If you don't buy tickets ahead of time--there's no guarantee you'll get in. Caucus goers are guaranteed to get in if they register the day of the caucus.

In fact, same-day registration would have a chilling effect on pre-registration. Same-day is easy and convenient and can be done at the caucus site, where you're going anyway.

Pre-registering to vote requires a trip downtown or to a gov office--or actually finding out how and when to register. Who would go through all of that--knowing they can do in two minutes, right before they caucus?

I think there might be a crazy influx of people registering to vote. That would explain why Dem voter registrations are down.

It's possible that precincts could get slammed with new registrations.

[TeamPooka]

24. They are not good at pre-planning, which is why they have disappointed many people looking for their

vote on election when they are no shows.
I hope the wave of young people I'm seeing at Bernie events do show up.

[cannabis_flower]

40. Also..

with a play or a ballgame, if you bought your ticket you probably wouldn't not go because you've already paid. Here there is no pay, there is no advantage to registering ahead of time.

[AikidoSoul]

46. It depends a lot on how much time you have. Time and logistics. N/T

[TeamPooka]

47. The daily time constraints (and logistics) of life are why most people don't vote, IMHO. nt

[mythology]

22. I would think you would want to have them register ahead of time to have the lock in

Anything that presents even a slight barrier on caucus day is an incentive to not attend.

You want people to buy in early and often. Sanders has been drawing great crowds, but he needs them to turn out on Monday to win. He's doing well enough that a close contest isn't as impressive as it would have been months ago. Now he's raised expectations (I mean that as a compliment to the Sanders campaign). Obviously a close contest is much better than a blowout, but he's come so far, it would probably feel a little disappointing to not win.

[CoffeeCat]

31. People in Iowa understand that part of the caucus process is to register 10 minutes

before you walk in the door. It's as simple as filling out a little card.

You are making this more complicated than it is.

Iowans have been told that the caucus, you arrive at 6:30, and if you need to register, maybe arrive ten minutes earlier to fill out the card. It's filling out a card.

There is no barrier here. It's how it's done. I doubt filling out a simple card would keep anyone from caucusing.

[brooklynite]

30. Yes, it takes 5 minutes, BUT...

...it also takes the time of standing in line behind everyone else who's not registered D...some people might decide it's not worth the trouble.

[CoffeeCat]

34. Yes, but there are 1680 precinct in Iowa. Each with their own caucu This is not one big vote.

When you have 1680 precinct in Iowa, each with their own caucus--that means smaller groups of people attending.

In larger precincts you'll have larger groups of people--a few hundred. But the group sizes are manageable.

So, it's really not that big of a deal.

Plus, we have so many volunteers who are there to register people. There are multiple people handling these efforts.

With that said, I do think that there will be above-normal people registering to vote for the first time, in some areas where Sanders is very popular--such as college towns and possibly in Des Moines. It's possible that those areas could be gobsmacked. But I think those people are devoted and determined enough to wait 10-15 minutes. People had to wait in lines for Obama in 2008. As we all know from the history, that was not a deterrent, at all.

[brooklynite]

36. Even so, the line can be long...

...I worked a caucus site for Hillary in Nevada in 2008 (same rules). Took a long time to get the voting started because of all the new registrations.

[CoffeeCat]

42. Yes, and in 2008 those long lines didn't deter people from caucusing...

and they won't this time either.

We've got the wind at our caucus backs! Clear skies, sunshine and lots of people to register those caucus goers and get them in the door.

[John Poet]

39. That's what you're hoping, huh.

[brooklynite]

41. No, I'm wonder why all these prospective voters didn't sign up earlier.

My philosophy has always been: no matter who I'm supporting, on Election Day everyone votes.

[riversedge]

4. But, Iowas

has enacted this new law--may help bernie--but may help Hillary also.



http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2016/01/29/3744072/trump-sanders-iowa-voting-right/

The Progressive Voting Law That Could Help Trump And Bernie Win Iowa

by Scott Keyes Jan 29, 2016 10:14 am

CREDIT: AP Photo/Patrick Semansky

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On Monday evening, thousands of Iowans will gather in local caucuses to collectively register their choice for president.

With polls showing both the Democratic and Republican contests still extremely close, the unknown variable is whether insurgent candidates Donald Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) can convince the infrequent voters buoying their campaigns to show up and caucus.

Many analysts consider this a tall order. Infrequent voters have, by definition, a history of reluctance to engage in the political process. And caucusing is an arduous, time-consuming endeavor that significantly dampens voter turnout.

But the Trump and Sanders campaigns’ reliance on new voters could pay off on Monday night because of a simple progressive voting right in Iowa: Election Day voter registration (EDR).

Unlike most states which set an arbitrary registration deadline as much as a month before the election, Iowa is one of 14 states plus Washington DC that have enacted EDR, also known as same-day registration. With EDR, citizens who haven’t previously registered to vote, or who have changed addresses since they last registered, can still cast their vote on Election Day.

The number of citizens without updated voter registrations is not trivial. One in ten eligible Iowans are not currently registered to vote at all, and more than 1 in 10 Americans move each year. Given the significant number of people in these potentially-disenfranchised groups, it’s little wonder that studies have found EDR boosts voter turnout by between seven and fourteen percentage points. Indeed, the one constant among the six highest voter turnout states in 2012 is that they all employ EDR.

[stevenleser]

6. That is an interesting twist, but I think the idea that there have been few new registrations speaks

to how there are not a lot of new voters as engaged in the process as we have been led to believe.

[riversedge]

11. Yes, you might be right. I did read a short

article about you OP a few weeks ago --not from the source you cited--that said the same.

[Nanjeanne]

5. Maybe people are already registered but haven't caucused before

Lots of people are actually registered voters . . . but they don't bother with caucuses and primaries.

I know it's hard to grasp that idea . . .

[stevenleser]

8. Sure, if you want to forget the argument Sanders supporters have been making, that's plausible.

The problem is, Sanders supporters here have been arguing that he brings new voters to the process, makes Republicans want to vote Democratic and generally can make puppydogs talk and unicorns fly, because he's Bernie.

The stats are showing nothing of the kind.

[Nanjeanne]

9. I know people who are registered but rarely vote

I think by "new" Sanders people mean people who don't get inspir d to actually vote although they may have register d at some time in their life. There are more of them than you might imagine.

[CoffeeCat]

12. One thing to keep in mind, is that in 2008

Iowa Democratic voters had to register ONE MONTH before the caucuses to be eligible to caucus.

So, there was a huge surge in Democratic voter registrations during November, December and early January 2008, because of this deadline (the 2008 Iowa caucus was held in early Feb, not Jan like 2016).

I remember lines being extraordinarily long at the downtown Des Moines voter-registration office. It was obscene.

So---to compare 2008 registrations with 2016 is like comparing apples and hockey pucks.

In 2016, we have EDR (Election Day Registration). The vast majority of people who are planning on caucusing for Bernie--who are not registered--will register the night of the caucus--right before the caucus.

I don't see how anyone could compare 2008 with 2016. Doesn't even make sense. Completely different procedures between the two years.

[libdem4life]

13. Many disgusted, disillusioned, disinterested voters. Likely many are registered.

It's not a "youth or nothing" process. And your Bernie comment is beneath you. I thought you were a journalist of some kind. And no, most of us are nothing like that.

Still, how many politicians have gone from 0 to at equal or above in our System? Of course there is excitement, especially among the aforementioned groups...including youths.

[Katashi_itto]

29. Oh hey now, nothing is beneath him. Dont insult him.

Last edited Mon Feb 1, 2016, 04:01 PM - Edit history (1)

He can go plenty further down. I have seen him do it.

[libdem4life]

37. Oops.

[Bluenorthwest]

14. Why would a new voter register in advance when you can do so at the caucus?

nt

[stevenleser]

15. Because the campaigns ask you to do so. nt

[Bluenorthwest]

20. That's a very large assumption to use as excuse for leaving that important rule change out of your

comparison of primary cycles. One can assume that more people will register in advance for things which must be registered for in advance than will do so at events which can be registered for at the door. This is a law of the gate.

[stevenleser]

21. Nope, not any kind of assumption. At least not if you have been involved with campaigns before

We will know more tomorrow.

[MineralMan]

16. Iowans can register at the caucuses.

Same in Minnesota, where voters can also register on election day. Many did just that in 2008.

[stevenleser]

17. Yes, I know. But registration is a strong indicator of new voters being drawn into the process. nt

[MineralMan]

18. Possibly so. I can't say, though

what it means for tomorrow. We shall see.

[NurseJackie]

26. Very interesting ... Will these tea leaves be a clue?

Even if not, it's still a notable tidbit of info.

[Katashi_itto]

28. Will Whopphi and the Kardasians be there in Iowa Steve?

[workinclasszero]

32. So if the whole "Bernie revolution" rests on pissed off new voters..

Uh...yeah.

[riversedge]

33. That is the closing argument

[morningfog]

35. IOW, Hillary couldn't bring new voters in 2008 and didn't in 2016 either.

[elias49]

43. Apparently that's what the poster is saying.

And that 100,000 new registrants between 04 and 08 are still registered. Just perhaps not leaning Hillary.

[frylock]

44. They probably want to be registered as Democrats for as short a time as possible.

Many of them probably find the thought to be most unpalatable.

[MerryBlooms]

45. Here's a very positive and encouraging piece from TP-

Sunday’s mock caucus was one of several LULAC has been holding throughout Iowa this month in an attempt to explain the state’s notoriously confusing presidential primary process to first-time Latino voters. And there is good reason why many Latinos in Iowa might need to be shown how to participate. According to Joe Henry, LULAC’s vice president for the midwest, past Latino turnout for presidential caucuses has been dismal. Depending on who you talk to, only 1,000 to 2,000 Latinos came out to caucus in 2012, he said — less than 5 percent of eligible voters in the state.

But Henry expects things to be different this year. For the first time, LULAC raised enough money to organize a statewide “get out the vote”-type effort for Iowa’s growing Latino population. And Henry says their effort represents the first time anyone has formally asked the state’s Latinos to vote. In the past, most candidate- and party-driven turnout efforts have focused on what Henry calls “regular participants,” aka white people, who make up 91 percent of the state. Latinos make up just 5.6 percent.

“The political parties have never engaged with our communities in this process,” he said. “They’ve never valued our votes. So we’re engaging with our own community, and we’re expecting a big turnout.”

That big turnout he expects: anywhere from 10,000 to 20,000 Latino caucus voters — more than Iowa has ever had in its history.

http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2016/02/01/3744644/latino-voters-iowa-caucuses/