Arizona is now officially a battleground state

[grantcart]

A second poll has Romney's lead in the low single digits.

This is a Republican pollster

The first one was Romney +3 and this one is Romney is +6.

This poll polls Republicans to Democrats 41/35.

Also Carmona and Flake are within the margin of error.

Obama is running ads here on the hour, every hour. No sign of Romney.

If they have registered and run a good GOTV Hispanic campaign then AZ could go blue.

http://tucsoncitizen.com/baja-democrats/2012/09/28/latest-az-poll-romney-46-obama-42-carmonaflake-close/

If the election for President was held today for whom would you vote?

46% Mitt Romney, Republican
42% Barack Obama, Democrat
3% Gary Johnson, Libertarian
1% Jill Stein, Green
2% None
7% Don’t know/refused



If the election for U.S. Senate was held today for whom would you vote?

43% Jeff Flake, Republican
40% Richard Carmona, Democrat
4% Marc Victor, Libertarian
1% None
11% Don’t know/refused

Demographics: Age

11% 18-25
15% 26-35
14% 36-45
18% 46-55
16% 56-61
25% 62+
1% NA

Demographics: Party Registration

41% Republican
35% Democrat
24% Independent/Other

From the TusconCitizen.com

Their demographics over samples Republicans by 5%, under samples Independents by 7%, and slightly over samples Democrats. Obama is likely almost tied with Romney and Carmona is likely leading Flake – he is very popular with Independents.

[TroyD]

1. Good, but the Senate race is more important

Wish Carmona was in the lead, but at least he's only 3 points behind.

PLEASE send Bill Clinton to Arizona to campaign for Carmona (and Obama). Bill is the only Democrat to win Arizona since Truman.

[oldhippydude]

4. agreed..

the Carmona race is more important than a bluer than blue victory.. although i would love to see the top of the ticket too..

i live in New mexico (next door).. Arizona is poised to go blue just like we did (demographics).. it just a matter of time.. would be nice to pick up the senate seat this election..demographics will do the rest.

[janx]

16. I'm in NM too and

could not agree more.

[TroyD]

2. Direct link to poll:

http://www.azhighground.com/?p=913

[PATRICK]

3. Battleground?

The proper term at that point would be rout massacre site, tactical retreat last stand or something more militarily accurate as a metaphor.

A "Custer" state might be too regionally sensitive.

[mgcgulfcoast]

5. i agree

this is unexpected good news.

[TroyD]

6. GOP poll: Ariz. Democrats gaining in Presidential and Senate races

PHOENIX -- He's one of the top Republican politicos in the state, and Thursday he delivered some bad news to his party.

Chuck Coughlin's political consulting firm HighGround, Inc. released a new poll showing Democrats are making a late charge in presidential and senate races.

According to the survey, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney is holding a slim lead over Democratic president Barack Obama.

At the same time, the survey shows Democratic Senate candidate Richard Carmona within a few points of his Republican rival, Congressman Jeff Flake.

More:


http://www.azfamily.com/news/GOP-poll-Ariz-Democrats-gaining-in-Presidential-and-Senate-races-171637321.html

[TroyD]

7. Richard Carmona is asking for help - please do what you can : )

Tea Party-affiliated FreedomWorks is coming to AZ to bail out Flake. Please help us build the resources to fight back

https://twitter.com/CarmonaForAZ

https://t.co/Zpk4KT3X

[lonestarnot]

9. ! Also Paul Penzone for Sheriff and Kyrsten Sinema for Congress District 9!

[lady lib]

19. Thx! I just submitted the online form to volunteer.

nt

[TroyD]

20. Thanks. : )

Hopefully the Dems will send more people and resources to Carmona so that he has a good shot at taking this.

[grantcart]

8. Kick

[outsideworld]

10. tHIS IS eXCITING

News . i really do hope obama and or clinton head over there.It will be wasted Opp if they ignore this opportunity

[hrmjustin]

11. We may not win the state, but the money could help in the senate race. n/t

[Rosa Luxemburg]

12. Interesting!

[annabanana]

13. k&r . . . .n/t

[WI_DEM]

14. Good, even if Obama loses his effort could drive up votes for Carmona.

[janx]

15. I just learned about Carmona!

And I have always wondered about the stereotype of Arizona's being so right wing--one that has been perpetuated by the media. The people I know there are not Republicans. Some of them are family.

As a funny aside...I was driving through the rural town of Snowflake last summer and saw signs for FLAKE. haha! I had to wonder which universe I was in.

[TroyD]

17. Bill Clinton

Re Arizona:

They should contact Bill Clinton's people & ask if he can come to AZ to help Dr. Carmona - Bill Clinton won AZ in 1996.

[woolldog]

18. lol

Their demographics over samples Republicans by 5%, under samples Independents by 7%, and slightly over samples Democrats. Obama is likely almost tied with Romney and Carmona is likely leading Flake – he is very popular with Independents.

This is exactly what the Republicans are saying about the polls they're losing in.

It's a bad argument that betrays an ignorance of polling when they make it, and it's a bad argument here too

[grantcart]

21. No the argument here is based on actually underpolling based on actual statistics

of registered voters. For example these are Democrats who are saying that in addition to oversampling Republicans that they also slightly over sampled Democrats but are under sampling Independents.

[TroyD]

22. Pardon?

Maybe it's late, but I'm not getting that.

Please explain.

[davidpdx]

23. I'm not convinced we'll win it for president

But the attention for the senate race could be a good sign.