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Tue Feb 2, 2016, 02:57 PM

Imagine Ron Paul had lost Iowa by a half dozen coin tosses

This is not an endorsement of Ron Paul, who is nuttier than a squirrel's birthday cake, but rather a thought experiment.

Imagine how we, as the opposition to the GOP, would view Paul's showing. Would he still be dismissed as merely a fringe candidate or would we all suddenly, simultaneously sit bolt upright at the clarion call that he was now a legitimate threat to be contended with?

Would Paul's supporters say to themselves, "Well, we fought our hardest, I guess we should just pack it in, though" or would they see their goals within reach and redouble their efforts making them even more of a threat to their opponents?

Would the claims he was not a viable candidate still ring with the undecideds or those who originally sought safe haven among more acceptable candidates or would that showing allow him to draw in more support?

Would the halls of the Establishment, with its promises of safe haven from the enemy, seem as unshakeable as they once did?

Now imagine -- what if it wasn't nutty Ron Paul but rather someone who actually has consistently argued for the Democratic party's core values for decades.

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Arrow 25 replies Author Time Post
Reply Imagine Ron Paul had lost Iowa by a half dozen coin tosses (Original post)
Nuclear Unicorn Feb 2016 OP
DanTex Feb 2016 #1
Nuclear Unicorn Feb 2016 #2
DanTex Feb 2016 #3
Autumn Feb 2016 #4
DanTex Feb 2016 #5
Autumn Feb 2016 #6
DanTex Feb 2016 #7
Autumn Feb 2016 #13
DanTex Feb 2016 #17
Autumn Feb 2016 #21
DanTex Feb 2016 #22
Autumn Feb 2016 #23
pnwmom Feb 2016 #14
bettyellen Feb 2016 #9
pnwmom Feb 2016 #11
bettyellen Feb 2016 #8
pnwmom Feb 2016 #10
NCTraveler Feb 2016 #16
pnwmom Feb 2016 #24
NCTraveler Feb 2016 #12
alcibiades_mystery Feb 2016 #15
Cali_Democrat Feb 2016 #18
Nuclear Unicorn Feb 2016 #25
DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #19
dbackjon Feb 2016 #20

Response to Nuclear Unicorn (Original post)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:01 PM

1. Ron Paul is a very apt analogy for Bernie Sanders.

In this story, do Ron Paul supporters pretend that the coin tosses decided the election even though everyone knowledgeable has pointed out that they weren't enough to swing it? Or are they smarter/more honest than that?

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Response to DanTex (Reply #1)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:07 PM

2. The insurgents are at the citadel gates as

its foundation crumbles beneath the weight of its own excesses.

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Response to Nuclear Unicorn (Reply #2)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:07 PM

3. Good answer!

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Response to DanTex (Reply #1)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:08 PM

4. Are you really pretending that she got no delegates from those 6 coin tosses?

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Response to Autumn (Reply #4)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:09 PM

5. Not enough to sway the overall result. Are you pretending she did?

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Response to DanTex (Reply #5)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:11 PM

6. Since I can do math I don't have to pretend.

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Response to Autumn (Reply #6)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:12 PM

7. Aha, yet another misinformed Bernie fan. You are aware that the delegates assigned

by coin toss were county delegates, not state delegate equivalents, right?

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Response to DanTex (Reply #7)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:22 PM

13. You are still pretending she got no delegates from her coin tosses.

She did, and those individual county delegate selections at a handful of precincts count for a tiny fraction of the ultimate result. Hillary won 49.9 percent and Bernie won 49.5 percent.

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Response to Autumn (Reply #13)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:24 PM

17. She got some, just not enough to make a difference in the outcome.

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Response to DanTex (Reply #17)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:28 PM

21. That was my point, she got delegates from the coin tosses. nt

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Response to Autumn (Reply #21)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:30 PM

22. Bernie did too. But however the coin tosses turned out, Hillary would have still won.

The coin tosses were irrelevant to the outcome of the caucus.

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Response to DanTex (Reply #22)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:30 PM

23. I don't dispute her win. nt

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Response to DanTex (Reply #7)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:23 PM

14. Some people are better at arithmetic than reading.

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Response to Autumn (Reply #4)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:17 PM

9. 6 out of 11,065. LOL. even the six is being disputed.

 

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Response to Autumn (Reply #4)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:21 PM

11. Those were county delegates, not the state delegates that determined the outcome.

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Response to Nuclear Unicorn (Original post)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:16 PM

8. the six were out of 11,065 local delegates for fucks sake. truly negligible.

 

if they weren;t there would be an actual scandal here instead of this embarrassment of confusion. the six is also disputed, but .....6/11065- do the math.

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Response to Nuclear Unicorn (Original post)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:19 PM

10. The 6 coin tosses did not change the overall outcome. They were associated with "county delegates"

not "state delegates."



http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/02/02/sometimes-iowa-democrats-award-caucus-delegates-coin-flip/79680342/


It happened in precinct 2-4 in Ames, where supporters of candidates Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton disputed the results after 60 caucus participants apparently disappeared from the proceedings.

As a result of the coin toss, Clinton was awarded an additional delegate, meaning she took five of the precinctís eight, while Sanders received three.

Similar situations played out at various precincts across the state, but had an extremely small effect on the overall outcome, in which Clinton won 49.9 percent of statewide delegate equivalents, while Sanders won 49.5 percent. The delegates that were decided by coin flips were delegates to the party's county conventions, of which there are thousands selected across the state from 1,681 separate precincts. They were not the statewide delegate equivalents that are reported in the final results.

The statewide delegate equivalents that determine the outcome on caucus night are derived from the county-level delegates, but are aggregated across the state and weighted in a manner that makes individual county delegate selections at a handful of precincts count for a tiny fraction of the ultimate result.

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Response to pnwmom (Reply #10)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:23 PM

16. As Sanders campaign manager said...

 

He wasn't familiar with the rules of the caucus. Apple doesn't fall far from the tree.

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Response to NCTraveler (Reply #16)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:40 PM

24. They're just trying to make Democrats suspicious about the outcome.

Since most of us don't understand the rules and they ARE crazy. But that's not Hillary's fault.

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Response to Nuclear Unicorn (Original post)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:22 PM

12. Not a chance.

 

His supporters deserted him for Sanders. I think it was a smart move on Sanders part to have his volunteers showing up at Paul events.

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Response to Nuclear Unicorn (Original post)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:23 PM

15. Hillary didn't win by coin toss. The information is now all over GD/P, including a post by Skinner

 

Ignorance of the actual process is no longer an excuse.

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Response to Nuclear Unicorn (Original post)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:26 PM

18. Yes, Ron Paul would still be dismissed as a fringe candidate

 

because he was a fringe candidate.

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Reply #18)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 04:25 PM

25. But Sanders isn't.

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Response to Nuclear Unicorn (Original post)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:27 PM

19. Hillary Clinton won an extremely close race. Everything else is commentary.

There has to be some closure. There is no such thing as ties in political races. In the absence of a winner and a loser you would have chaos.

BTW. I would say that regardless of the candidates. It's just common sense.

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Response to Nuclear Unicorn (Original post)

Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:27 PM

20. Bernie didn't lose by a half dozen coin tosses

 

You are not understanding what happened.

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