2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie’s 'Political Revolution' is Actually Happening, but M$M Won’t Tell You That
Not to mention that Rachael's 'analysis' totally ignores the Independent voters who turned out
in YUUGE numbers.
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Bernies 'Political Revolution' is Actually Happening, Although the Corporate Media Wont Tell You That
Don't rely on the media to tell you what's going on.
By Thom Hartmann * AlterNet * February 14, 2016
Bernie Sanders has made voter-turnout history, getting about a third more votes than any other primary candidate in the history of New Hampshire primaries, but much of our media is reporting the opposite; that its no big deal what hes accomplishing. ~snip~
It turns out that fewer people showed up to vote Democratic in New Hampshire and Iowa this year than they did in Obamas 2008! If thats the case and it is then how could Bernie possibly claim that hes energizing new people? He must be running a con on us, or hes just a deluded old man who dreams of revolution but nobodys really showing up.
Time to doubt both Bernie and his ideas, right?
After all, as Rachel points out, 40,000 fewer people voted in this years New Hampshire Democratic primary than did in 2008, she said. Adding, for emphasis, the three-word sentence: Forty thousand less! ~snip~
Clearly Bernies campaign is running a scam, right? The entire rationale for his candidacy is built on sand. His revolution isnt happening so far, so why might it happen later? Time to doubt that Bernies claims of political change are even possible, much less reasonable.
However
Rachel missed a few facts something unusual for her usually brilliant political analysis.
First, Bernies main premise wasnt that he could get more people to vote for him (although hes asserted that and is actually doing it, as Ill get to in a moment). His main premise is that, unlike President Obama, he will ask the American people to be very, very, very involved in the political process. Hes talked over and over about how if, as president, when hes trying to get meaningful legislation through, hell invite millions of people to come to DC to let Congress know what they think.
But more importantly, in this story (played out in other media as well as MSNBC) the numbers were passed along to us from their source in an astonishingly confusing fashion, given their context.
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/bernies-political-revolution-actually-happening-although-corporate-media-wont-tell-you
cantbeserious
(13,039 posts)eom
JFKDem62
(383 posts)No matter who wins....
UnBlinkingEye
(56 posts)Think it is great and long overdue. Jeb and Hillary must be feeling a little gobsmacked.
Helen Borg
(3,963 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)it's been building since at least WTO Seattle '99.
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)I was actually there, it was a wild time.
tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)thanks for being there
hope you didn't get hurt
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)played havoc with my athsma but I escaped to lower ground at the waterfront
before it got too bad.
Had an amazing conversation with a cop who was standing frozen in a line to
keep protesters from getting closer to WTO event, and I just talked with him
about "did he have any children?" and he nodded ever so slightly and gave me
eye contact, so I went on ... about how the reason I was there was for my kids
and their future, etc. until we were both tearing-up & he began visibly emoting
with me, and his supervisor finally came and took him off-line ... now that made
the whole trip (from Portland)more than worth it. I'll never forget that moment.
tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)good for you!
the un-televised revolution, is of course, the other half of why Bush gave us 9/11, patriot act, DHS and the war on terra
Kip Humphrey
(4,753 posts)total Democratic turnout where it belongs to the Hillary Clinton campaign?
TTUBatfan2008
(3,623 posts)...to her network for giving Bernie about 1% of the TV coverage while they drooled over Trump in 2015.
appalachiablue
(41,118 posts)Hartmann's Big Picture segment tonight on the new media theme that Bernie and his political revolution isn't happening.
Not holding my breath that R. corrects this. However, Chris Hayes just apologized for recent brief remarks made by Bill about Obama that MSNBC showed, by airing video of Bill's full remarks on the show tonight. Hayes said, 'we shouldn't have done that.'
yourpaljoey
(2,166 posts)I have never seen a political/social movement like this.
The People will be heard!
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
geologic
(205 posts)ya ain't gonna make it with anyone anyway...
Response to SidDithers (Reply #8)
polly7 This message was self-deleted by its author.
LWolf
(46,179 posts)And if we are going to use 2008 as a baseline, remember what happened in the 2008 general (60% voter turnout in the general, Dems wins the White House, Dems win huge majorities in Senate and House).
So if Bernie can get Democratic turnout near those levels (which he is already doing despite having only one opponent), Dems have a very good election night in November.
Bernies candidacy has made history, regardless of where it goes from here. The revolution may not be as well televised as Sanders fans would like, but it is certainly rolling ahead at full steam with every possibility of taking the White House and taking back, like in 2008, both chambers of Congress.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)It's more like a bumper sticker slogan. A political revolution would involve a plan to win back state houses, The Senate and the House. If Bernie wins the nomination down ballot Democrats will be getting as far away as they can from him and his promises to raise taxes. The last Democrat that ran for POTUS on raising taxes was Walter Mondale. He won 1 state.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)DemocraticSocialist8
(396 posts)and NH
Nanjeanne
(4,935 posts)MisterP
(23,730 posts)that peace was about to unfold on earth, the GOP about to disappear, etc.
Jenny_92808
(1,342 posts)SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)they are not hitting us with clubs - not gassing us - not jailing us...
and it is pissing them off - they wish we were out on the streets
the backlash will be economic - but so many have so little now there is not much more they can do - the last weapon they have is hunger
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)right This way we're more defuse and not so handy for pepper-spraying and
billy clubbing, and jailing. .. like with OWS.
Dont call me Shirley
(10,998 posts)oasis
(49,370 posts)Dont call me Shirley
(10,998 posts)oasis
(49,370 posts)Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)If Rachel isn't careful she's going to come in somewhere below dog poop on the smell test scale
Uncle Joe
(58,342 posts)Thanks for the thread, 99th_Monkey.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)More votes than ANYONE IN HISTORY.
There were fewer TOTAL Democratic votes because- DUH !! - Hillary couldn't draw.
What's with Rachael? Or anybody, for that matter?
Next question?
Enthusiast
(50,983 posts)bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)Rachel Maddow talked about this on.her show on the number of Iowa voters for republicans vs.Democrats also in New. Hampshire there republicans are more enthusiastic this time around.The democratic party is fighting against history.
brooklynite
(94,489 posts)...but I haven't seen any sign that the revolutionaries are working to get any equally progressive House or Senate members elected as well. Guess I'll have to keep working on that.
Admiral Loinpresser
(3,859 posts)Beacool
(30,247 posts)"Hes talked over and over about how if, as president, when hes trying to get meaningful legislation through, hell invite millions of people to come to DC to let Congress know what they think."
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)Beacool
(30,247 posts)It's not the same tune. He found out the hard way that wishing for something does not mean that it will be accomplished. Hillary already has those scars from 1993 and Obama has his from 2010. Sanders is over promising. I don't trust anyone whose entire agenda will only get to pass if we have a "political revolution". That's just B.S.
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)and I know most American voters pretty much agree with me.
Peddling intransigent incrementalism is about as inspirational as getting a root canal.
Beacool
(30,247 posts)I think that Hillary will advance Democratic goals, but she knows what she would have to deal with (Congress) if she becomes president. Sanders seems to close his eyes and ears to reality and assumes that millions of people will uprise. That is just unrealistic nonsense.
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)Please proceed.
Beacool
(30,247 posts)When all is said and done, I think that Hillary will prevail.
Gothmog
(145,086 posts)No one has seen any evidence of the so-called Sanders revolution https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/02/10/sorry-bernie-sanders-there-is-zero-evidence-of-your-political-revolution-yet/
To succeed, Sanders might have to drive Americans who don't normally participate to the polls. Unfortunately for him, groups who usually do not vote did not turn out in unusually large numbers in New Hampshire, according to exit polling data.
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484
...As for Sanders, he credited his victory to turnout. "Because of a huge voter turnout -- and I say huge -- we won," he said in his speech declaring victory, dropping the "h" in "huge." "We harnessed the energy, and the excitement that the Democratic party will need to succeed in November."
In fact, Sanders won by persuading many habitual Democratic primary voters to support him. With 95 percent of precincts reporting their results as of Wednesday morning, just 241,000 ballots had been cast in the Democratic primary, fewer than the 268,000 projected by New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner last week. Nearly 289,000 voters cast ballots in the state's Democratic primary in 2008.
To be sure, the general election is still seven months away. Ordinary Americans might be paying little attention to the campaign at this point, and if Sanders wins the nomination, he'll have the help of the Democratic Party apparatus in registering new voters. The political revolution hasn't started, though, at least not yet.
Without this revolution, I am not sure how Sanders proposes to advance his unrealistic agenda
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)It's fascinating to watch the denial-in-action .. I truly hope all Hillarians continue to think
that Bernie's revolution is a 'non-starter'..
Gothmog
(145,086 posts)99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)Gothmog
(145,086 posts)Again, the premise of the Sanders revolutions is that millions and millions of new voters will rise up and call for change. Where are these new voters?
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)other wise she would have won.
Gothmog
(145,086 posts)I am not the only one wondering about the effectiveness of the revolution concept http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/01/bernie_sanders_revolution_isn_t_good_enough.html
Even with a viable political revolution, a President Sanders would have a hard time persuading or budging a Republican Housestill intact because of a powerful partisan advantage, cemented through gerrymandering and geographythat represents radically different, opposing values. The distance between his plans and their priorities is so great that its hard to imagine a world where the two sides can be bridged. You could pressure those Republicans through grassroots action, but they werent elected by the political revolution. Why would they listen?
Indeed, when you take disagreement and political pluralism seriously, it is difficult to even conceptualize the revolution that Sanders describes and touts as the key to success. Does it emerge in Americas conservative bastions? Does it overcome decades of conviction, habit, and organization, the forces that gave John McCain and Sarah Palin nearly 60 million votes in an election almost designed to give a historic victory to the Democratic Party? The truth is that, even under the best scenario for Sandersa growing economy, huge enthusiasm, and a weak opponentits hard to imagine a world where he beats Obamas total from 2008. Unless the revolution is truly thata movement that overcomes partisan barriersit, at most, leaves liberals where they were at the beginning of 2013.
President-elect Sanders would enter the White House with gridlock ahead of him. And if the conservatism and moderation of places like Virginia and Missouri are any indication, then he would also face a split in the Democratic Party, among lawmakers who backed him and his socialist label, and those who ran from it. His campaign promises to challenge the establishment. Would these moderate and conservative Democrats challenge the establishment too? If they dont, would Sanders challenge them?
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)by any number of measures, i.e. his YUUUGE crowds, his garnering unprecedented number
of small donations, raising $5-6 Million within hours of his also historic win in NH (the FIRST
Jewish candidate to do so).
I see no reason to buy into "conventional wisdom" when it comes to assessing or predicting
how Bernie's political revolution will play out. Bernie's game-changing mojo is a moving target
that's usually 2-3 steps ahead of mainstream punditry.
I am however rather enjoying how it's forcing Hillary and her surrogates to double down on
"NO we can't" ... "It's just too hard .. " ... "That will never happen." because -- as a Bernie
supporter -- I know that's good news for Bernie, who has good news for voters: i.e. "when we
all stand up together ...
"YES WE CAN, and this time WE WILL"
Gothmog
(145,086 posts)The premise of the Sanders revolutions relies on millions and millions of new voters joining the political process. No one has seen this surge yet?
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)Gothmog
(145,086 posts)Fewer people caste votes in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2016 compared to 2008. Those millions of voters did not show up
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)Income Inequality would not even be on the radar, much less a central issue in the
Democratic Primary.
Gothmog
(145,086 posts)Again, the theory that Sanders keeps preaching is that if millions and millions of new voters show up, then the GOP will become more reasonable. Those new voters are not showing up which undercuts the premise of the Sanders campaign.
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)until yore blue in the face, and it still doesn't change these facts
FACT #1 Bernie came from single-digits on day-one, to
FACT #2 Tying Clinton in Iowa, and
FACT #3 Trouncing Hillary in NH, by 22%.
The Revolution is on baby, like it or not. Something is happening that has
never happened before, and even the M$M (of all people) .. even they admit
exactly that, that this election is "anyone's guess" what's going to happen.
Even a stopped clock like the M$M gets it right twice a day.
FSogol
(45,470 posts)99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)and like that "increasing ave. family net worth" goal as number one on his list.
Dont' get me wrong, i like the guy, and these polices DO generally help us 'little
people' get-by financially ..
But where is "break up the big banks", or "reinstate GlassSteagall" or "taking on
Wall St." .. don't see any of that.
I feel Bernie fully deserves credit for putting these^ issues at or near the top of
the Democratic primary list of issues under consideration and debate. Clinton
certainly wasn't going to bring them up, and so why would O'Malley do it either,
except perhaps in oblique ways like increasing "ave. family net worth"
FSogol
(45,470 posts)All of his plans are listed here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12813600
You should check out: Holding Wall Street Accountable
https://14d2r744okfe40r1ug1oqm6y-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/OMalley-Wall-Street-Reform.pdf
and actually, Warren probably deserves the credit for putting this all on the agenda.
I'll repeat, you really don't understand what you are talking about when you lump O'Malley in with HRC's campaign.
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)FSogol
(45,470 posts)Gothmog
(145,086 posts)Sanders' plans for adopting his proposals depend on these new voters. Here is how Sanders thinks that he will be able to force the GOP to be reasonable http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/21/1483791/-Imagine-Bernie-Sanders-wins-the-White-House-Then-what
Thats a phrase Sanders uses often, but what does he mean by it? Sanders has said that if he wins the presidency, his victory will be accompanied by a huge increase in voter turnoutone that he thinks might end Republican control of Congress. But Sanders acknowledges that the House and Senate could, in spite of his best efforts, remain in GOP hands come next January.
Given that likelihood, Sanders offers an alternate means for achieving his political revolution. He says he knows that a Democratic president cant simply sit down and negotiate with Republican leaders and forge a series of compromises. Anyone who's observed the GOPs behavior over the course of Barack Obamas presidency would not dispute that, and in any event, no compromise with Republicans would ever lead to single-payer anyway.
So what then? How would a President Sanders get Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan to pass any of his big-ticket items? This is the model he proposes:
What we do is you put an issue before Congress, lets just use free tuition at public colleges and universities, and that vote is going to take place on November 8 ... whatever it may be. We tell millions and millions of people, young people and their parents, there is going to be a vote ... half the people dont know whats going on ... but we tell them when the vote is, maybe we welcome a million young people to Washington, D.C. to say hello to their members of Congress. Maybe we have the telephones and the e-mails flying all over the place so that everybody in America will know how their representative is voting. [...]
And then Republicans are going to have to make a decision. Then theyre going to have to make a decision. You know, when thousands of young people in their district are saying, You vote against this, youre out of your job, because we know whats going on. So this gets back to what a political revolution is about, is bringing people in touch with the Congress, not having that huge wall. Thats how you bring about change.
The rest of the DK article debunks that concept that Paul Ryan or Mitch McConnell could be influenced by these new voters but we never get to this issue and Sanders himself admits that he will not bet elected without this revolution. So far we are not seeing any evidence of this revolution. Again, Sanders's whole campaign is based on this revolution and so it is appropriate to ask where these new voters are?
It is hard for me to take Sanders' proposals seriously including the ones you want to talk about unless and until we see some evidence of this revolution.
Again, where are these millions and millions of new voters?
oldandhappy
(6,719 posts)Do not want to peak too soon.
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)and Team Bernie is doing a fantastic job so far, trending just gradually enough
to keep The Bern building momentum into the next primary/caucus.
GreenPartyVoter
(72,377 posts)a huge spike in time for the GE.
Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)Gothmog
(145,086 posts)"We need a political revolution of millions of people in this country who are prepared to stand up and say, 'enough is enough' ... I want to help lead that effort."
~ Sen. Bernie Sanders
That means that millions of people need to come out and so far there are fewer votes in Iowa and NH than 2008. Where are these millions and don't they need to vote. For the revolution to succeed, Sanders needs sufficient voters to gain the attention of the GOP in Congress which will be difficult since most republicans in the House are in gerrymandered districts and are safe from any sort of pressure from this "revolution."
Again, for Sanders to be viable and be able to keep his campaign promises, it might me nice if this revolution involves some actual voters