2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSTATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 15, 2016
Last edited Mon Feb 15, 2016, 09:12 PM - Edit history (4)
[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 36, Clinton 32 (Sanders +4)
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 394, Sanders 44 (Clinton +350)
Versus Targets (Cook): Clinton +7, Sanders -7.
Next Primary
Nevada caucuses, February 20 (35 pledged delegates).
Targets (Cook): Clinton 16, Sanders 19.[/font]
[font color="darkblue"] Latest Polls
Nevada (TargetPoint): Clinton 45, Sanders 45 (tie).
South Carolina (ARG): Clinton 65, Sanders 27 (Clinton +38).
South Carolina (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 59, Sanders 40 (Clinton +19)
South Carolina (Gravis): Clinton 59, Sanders 41 (Clinton +18).
South Carolina (PPP): Clinton 55, Sanders 34 (Clinton +21).
Latest Polls-Plus Projections (538)
Nevada: Clinton/Sanders 50%.
South Carolina: Clinton 99%+.
Michigan: Clinton 97%.
North Carolina: Clinton 95%.
Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 467, Sanders 2.[/font]
[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
Versus Targets: Trump -4, Cruz -5, Rubio -10.
538 South Carolina Projection: Trump 73%, Rubio 17%.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 75, Bush 51, Kasich 20.[/font]
Comments
The Nevada poll is a bit old now, and is a pro-Bernie push poll, but it's still literally the only recent poll we have. Nevada was conducted both before and after the NH primary; the two SC polls were conducted after.
With the two new SC polls today, it seems that the ARG poll that had Clinton +38 was an outlier, and that she's ahead by around 20 points. For reference, Bernie's margin of victory in New Hampshire was 22 points. Between that and the fact that Hillary's target number is slightly higher in SC than Bernie's (28 to 25), it seems that Bernie fans have some small glimmer of hope in SC.
I've tweaked this a bit to make it a bit more readable, to accommodate Bernie fans who want to give more weight (or all weight) to pledged delegates, and because I enjoy tweaking things.
How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates and superdelegates. Superdelegates are not bound to any one candidate, and while the count reflects their stated intentions, they can change their minds before the convention.
The targets are taken from the Cook Political Report's model, based on superdelegate endorsement and demographic conditions favorable to each candidate, and represent the number of delegates each candidate must win in each state in order to stay on track to tie for the nomination. The targets are current as of February 12. The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the projections indicate the probability that the candidate will win that state.
Additions and changes made after the thread is posted will be denoted by italics.
If you have a suggestion for a scorecard or model not covered above, let me know. If this post is useful to you, please K&R!
[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
When I dropped the piano down the mineshaft, I got A-flat minor.[/font]
[hr]
kydo
(2,679 posts)Sorry that made me LOL
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)That took me a minute.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)I am looking forward to the polls from SC and NC, those should start to tell the future story.
Stuckinthebush
(11,021 posts)Also, the Cook targets show that all Clinton needs is 16 versus Sanders need for 19 in Nevada. So, she only needs 46% of the delegates. She'll get more but that is all she needs to stay on target.
Then.....SC. BOOM!
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)Alfresco
(1,698 posts)Chichiri
(4,667 posts)Hillary has gone down in 538's projection from over 99% to just 99%. Oh snap. Also, Cruz has replaced Rubio in second place there.
liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)disappointment when they don't come true. I'm not saying Bernie will win SC, but it will be much closer than 99% to 1%.
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)The most recent polls have Hillary close to 60%.
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)room there for a surprise. Who knows? Maybe we'll get another tie.
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)Dawson Leery
(19,366 posts)Persondem
(2,087 posts)stonecutter357
(12,769 posts)Chichiri
(4,667 posts)Good news for Trump in SC and Rubio in the endorsements. Also a couple small tweaks to the Dem models.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)Also, not much of a pun when you need to imply the death of a child to try to get a laugh.
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)okasha
(11,573 posts)to be offended.
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)Because if he posts accurate data, or tells a funny joke, it's a short and slippery slope from there to accurately predicting the electoral catastrophe that awaits Bernie over the next couple months.
okasha
(11,573 posts)but the reward is the adrenaline high. Have a look at the threads about the Clintons' speaking fees. Absolutely nowhere in the normal world are they a "scandal." Here they're an excuse to bring out the pitchforks and torches.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)Why is "minor" necessary for the pun?
How about a better pun?
So a Buddhist walks up to a hot dog vendor and says "Make me one with everything".
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)Chichiri
(4,667 posts)Also added some commentary in the comments.