STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 18, 2016

[Chichiri]

Last edited Thu Feb 18, 2016, 06:11 PM - Edit history (4)

[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 481, Sanders 55 (Clinton +426)
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 36, Clinton 32 (Sanders +4)
Versus Targets (Cook): Clinton +7, Sanders -7.

Next Primary
Nevada caucuses, February 20 (35 pledged delegates).
Targets (Cook): Clinton 16, Sanders 19.[/font]


[font color="darkblue"] Latest Polls
Nevada (CNN/ORC): Clinton 48, Sanders 47 (Clinton +1).
Arkansas (PPP): Clinton 57, Sanders 32 (Clinton +25).
Massachusetts (PPP): Sanders 49, Clinton 42 (Sanders +7).
Oklahoma (PPP): Clinton 46, Sanders 44 (Clinton +2).
Tennessee (PPP): Clinton 58, Sanders 32 (Clinton +26).
Texas (PPP): Clinton 57, Sanders 34 (Clinton +23).
Virginia (PPP): Clinton 56, Sanders 34 (Clinton +22).
Alabama (PPP): Clinton 59, Sanders 31 (Clinton +28).
Georgia (PPP): Clinton 60, Sanders 26 (Clinton +34).
Louisiana (PPP): Clinton 60, Sanders 29 (Clinton +31).
Michigan (PPP): Clinton 50, Sanders 40 (Clinton +10).
Mississippi (PPP): Clinton 60, Sanders 26 (Clinton +34).
Vermont (PPP): Clinton 10, Sanders 86 (Sanders +76).
Nevada (Gravis): Clinton 53, Sanders 47 (Clinton +6).
South Carolina (Monmouth): Clinton 59, Sanders 30 (Clinton +29).

Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
Nevada: Clinton 75%.
South Carolina: Clinton >99%.
Arkansas: Clinton >99%
Virginia: Clinton 98%.
Michigan: Clinton 95%.
Georgia: Clinton >99%.
Oklahoma: Clinton 81%.
Texas: Clinton 98%.
Tennessee: Clinton 99%.
North Carolina: Clinton 99%.

Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 467, Sanders 2.[/font]


[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
Versus Targets: Trump -4, Cruz -5, Rubio -10.
538 South Carolina Projection: Trump 77%, Rubio 12%.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 85, Bush 51, Cruz 21.[/font]


Comments
Is it Thursday already? Jeesh.

Quinnipiac released a whole slew of matchups in hypothetical general elections, the gist of which Bernie rocks and Hillary sucks. Generally speaking, matchup polls early in the election years have zero predictive value, as I would be pointing out (perhaps somewhat reluctantly) even if roles were reversed. Moreover, in this particular instance, we have a unique problem: Bernie's numbers reflect someone who has never been properly vetted nationwide, and who has had the luxury of being able to define his own image, while Hillary's numbers reflect over two decades of the harshest national vetting this country has ever seen. So yes, Virginia, they really do mean nothing.

Well, almost nothing. If Bernie does win the nomination, he might have a little bit of cushioning for his fall -- and I think he'd still do well against Trump and maybe Cruz, at least, just because those two guys are so awful. So if GOP trends continue past Super Tuesday, a Bernie nomination wouldn't be the worst thing. (But if Rubio, Kasich or Bush wins, start praying.)

Difficult or not, I would love to see a couple more Nevada polls. How about you?


How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the election).

The targets are taken from the Cook Political Report's model, based on superdelegate endorsement and demographic conditions favorable to each candidate, and represent the number of delegates each candidate must win in each state in order to stay on track to tie for the nomination. The targets are current as of February 12. The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the projections indicate the probability that the candidate will win that state.

Additions and changes made after the thread is posted will be denoted by italics.

If this post is useful to you, please K&R!


[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
The new window glass fell into a tree yesterday; it was a pane in the ash![/font]

[hr]

[LuvLoogie]

1. Thank you!

[Chichiri]

2. You betcha. nt

[BlueCaliDem]

3. K&R! Those are some really NICE numbers!

It's time we send Bernie back to Vermont so he can run his re-election bid as the INDEPENDENT he's registered himself as. And may the Democratic Party pit a Democratic primary challenger against him.

[Chichiri]

4. I did read that he's running as an independent in 2018.

Just wanted to use the DNC's infrastructure to try to become president. Not a Democrat, never was, but just as his fans say we're taking their votes for granted, running on the Democratic ticket allows him to take their vote for granted. Does anyone think he would have such an upwelling of support if he ran today as an independent?

Between that and the decades of Hillary smears that have been successfully transplanted into our echo chamber, I simply cannot understand how Bernie supporters don't realize they're being played.

[kydo]

5. I must confess. I find right now the best part of these posts to be the Pun of the Day.

Many days the numbers and all that don't change. Its the way of politics, nothing for a while then bang, butt load of numbers and changes. Those days are fun. But it is the Pun of the Day that keeps me clicking this thread.

Thank you Chichiri!

Those things make my day.

[Chichiri]

7. Glad to be of service. nt

☺

[comradebillyboy]

6. Looking good for Hilz

[Chichiri]

8. UPDATE: New polls.

Bad news for Bernie in Nevada, worse in SC. Also, new projection for Texas, and tweaks to a couple other projections.

[Chichiri]

9. Caveat: the Nevada poll was sponsored by the conservative OANN.

I'm pretty sure that if there were shenanigans, the poll would have Sanders up, or at least tied, as with the push poll earlier this week. Nonetheless, one should take all conservative-sponsored polls with a large grain of salt.

[Chichiri]

10. UPDATE: Hillary now at 75% to win Nevada. nt

[DesertRat]

11. Looks good

Thanks for the post!

[DemonGoddess]

12. K&R!

Great, informative post!

[MoonRiver]

13. Isn't there a more recent poll, out today I think, that has Hillary ahead 6 in Nevada?

Of course, I could be wrong. Happens all the time!

[Chichiri]

15. No, you're right, and the poll is on there. nt

[Lucinda]

14. Thanks much! Nice to see more of the supers pledging too!