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Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:05 AM

 

In my opinion, it was more important to win the Latino vote than to win that caucus.

If I had to pick between the two, I'd pick the Latino vote, every single time. And, obviously, it would have been nice to have won the African-American vote, also. The Latino vote is going to be extremely important in upcoming delegate-heavy states. Latinos just don't appear to be falling for Clinton's divisive "identity politics", and dirty tricks, and are turning out to be receptive to the uniting politics of Bernie Sanders:

That's not to say Clinton can relax after Nevada. Even after her campaign tried to call Sanders' commitment to immigration reform into question and Clinton promised to put forward immigration legislation on the issue during her first 100 days in office, she lost Latino voters to Sanders 53 percent to 45 percent.

South Carolina does not have a large population of Hispanic voters, but Texas and Colorado do, and both will go to the polls on Super Tuesday. If Sanders' success among Latinos extends beyond Nevada, that could spell trouble for Clinton in delegate-rich states like Florida, New York and California and give Sanders staying power.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/nevada-democratic-caucus-hillary-clinton-wins-black-voters-loses-hispanics/

17 replies, 2050 views

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Reply In my opinion, it was more important to win the Latino vote than to win that caucus. (Original post)
w4rma Feb 2016 OP
dana_b Feb 2016 #1
Metric System Feb 2016 #2
w4rma Feb 2016 #3
72DejaVu Feb 2016 #4
NurseJackie Feb 2016 #6
w4rma Feb 2016 #7
72DejaVu Feb 2016 #8
w4rma Feb 2016 #9
grossproffit Feb 2016 #16
aaaaaa5a Feb 2016 #13
72DejaVu Feb 2016 #17
jfern Feb 2016 #5
Erich Bloodaxe BSN Feb 2016 #10
Ken Burch Feb 2016 #11
FrenchieCat Feb 2016 #12
ProgressiveEconomist Feb 2016 #14
w4rma Feb 2016 #15

Response to w4rma (Original post)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:08 AM

1. it's a good start!

Someone else posted something about it tonight... it might be on the GDP first page, about how Bernie COULD win the rest of the caucuses and the Latino community is crucial to this.

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Response to w4rma (Original post)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:11 AM

2. Hillary won the Latino vote. The entrance polls were off.

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Response to Metric System (Reply #2)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:13 AM

3. I completely disagree with that analysis that the entrance/exit polls were somehow "off".

 

I had been paying attention to the polls, before the election, and expected Bernie to win the Latino vote and lose the African-American vote.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1262964

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Response to w4rma (Reply #3)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:23 AM

4. I expected a pony for Christmas

We were both let down.

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Response to 72DejaVu (Reply #4)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:25 AM

6. (Snort!) LOL!

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Response to 72DejaVu (Reply #4)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:27 AM

7. I am completely cool with Camp Weathervane whistling past their graveyard.

 

Just don't bring the rest of us down with you.

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Response to w4rma (Reply #7)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:28 AM

8. That's pretty rude, man

I really wanted that pony.

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Response to 72DejaVu (Reply #8)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:29 AM

9. LOL (nt)

 

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Response to 72DejaVu (Reply #4)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:08 AM

16. I wanted a pig!

My parents said we already had one and then pointed towards my room. Memories.

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Response to w4rma (Reply #3)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:27 AM

13. Entrance polls are traditionally wrong.

Especially for a Caucus.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Reply #13)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:34 AM

17. well that depends

If they show Bernie winning, they are as reliable as Old Faithful. If they show Hillary winning, they are junk.

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Response to Metric System (Reply #2)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:23 AM

5. The entrance polls were corrected, and still have Bernie winning Hispanics

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Response to w4rma (Original post)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:01 AM

10. There's some question about whether or not it happened.

Entrance polling said Sanders won Latinos, but someone posted links that suggested that Sanders did poorly in areas that were mostly Latino. I'm not sure how to square that circle. Were people lying to pollsters? Did more Latinos actually caucus in places they wouldn't be expected to?

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Response to w4rma (Original post)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:04 AM

11. That explains why HRC's friends here are so obsessed with denying that it happened.

 

It's like they think HRC was OWED a Latino majority.

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Response to Ken Burch (Reply #11)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:25 AM

12. I don't think that's what it means...

I think that's what you think, which is not the same thing!

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Response to w4rma (Original post)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:58 AM

14. What was the avg AGE of NV

Latino caucus voters. What proportion of NV Latinos who turned out for BHO in 2008 turned out for yesterday's NV caucuses.

IMO, taking age distribution into account very likely turns SBS Hispanic vote forecast for the GE not a win, but rather a YUGE loss.

I suspect SBS did very well among naive Latino millenials, but not so well among greyer Latinos who've lived through Nixon, Reagan, and two Bushes.

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Response to ProgressiveEconomist (Reply #14)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:05 AM

15. Nevada tends towards the older voter along all demographic lines. That favors Hillary.

 

But, as FiveThirtyEight noted, Nevada’s voters are mostly old. And the support of millennials and the Latino community wasn’t enough to edge out Clinton, who won the Nevada Democratic caucus with 52% of the vote.
http://qz.com/621302/sanders-may-have-lost-nevada-but-he-won-over-the-crucial-hispanic-vote/

As Nate Cohn points out, Nevada’s voters are fairly old — and no demographic trait has better predicted support for the Democratic candidates than the age of the voter, with younger Democrats flocking overwhelmingly to Sanders and older ones to Clinton. And maybe it’s Clinton who benefits from holding a caucus since Sanders relies on support from first-time voters who may not show up to vote at 11 a.m. on a Saturday morning.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/nevada-caucus-south-carolina-primary-presidential-election-2016/

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