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w4rma

(31,700 posts)
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:05 AM Feb 2016

In my opinion, it was more important to win the Latino vote than to win that caucus.

If I had to pick between the two, I'd pick the Latino vote, every single time. And, obviously, it would have been nice to have won the African-American vote, also. The Latino vote is going to be extremely important in upcoming delegate-heavy states. Latinos just don't appear to be falling for Clinton's divisive "identity politics", and dirty tricks, and are turning out to be receptive to the uniting politics of Bernie Sanders:

That's not to say Clinton can relax after Nevada. Even after her campaign tried to call Sanders' commitment to immigration reform into question and Clinton promised to put forward immigration legislation on the issue during her first 100 days in office, she lost Latino voters to Sanders 53 percent to 45 percent.

South Carolina does not have a large population of Hispanic voters, but Texas and Colorado do, and both will go to the polls on Super Tuesday. If Sanders' success among Latinos extends beyond Nevada, that could spell trouble for Clinton in delegate-rich states like Florida, New York and California and give Sanders staying power.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/nevada-democratic-caucus-hillary-clinton-wins-black-voters-loses-hispanics/

17 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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In my opinion, it was more important to win the Latino vote than to win that caucus. (Original Post) w4rma Feb 2016 OP
it's a good start! dana_b Feb 2016 #1
Hillary won the Latino vote. The entrance polls were off. Metric System Feb 2016 #2
I completely disagree with that analysis that the entrance/exit polls were somehow "off". w4rma Feb 2016 #3
I expected a pony for Christmas 72DejaVu Feb 2016 #4
(Snort!) LOL! NurseJackie Feb 2016 #6
I am completely cool with Camp Weathervane whistling past their graveyard. w4rma Feb 2016 #7
That's pretty rude, man 72DejaVu Feb 2016 #8
LOL (nt) w4rma Feb 2016 #9
I wanted a pig! grossproffit Feb 2016 #16
Entrance polls are traditionally wrong. aaaaaa5a Feb 2016 #13
well that depends 72DejaVu Feb 2016 #17
The entrance polls were corrected, and still have Bernie winning Hispanics jfern Feb 2016 #5
There's some question about whether or not it happened. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Feb 2016 #10
That explains why HRC's friends here are so obsessed with denying that it happened. Ken Burch Feb 2016 #11
I don't think that's what it means... FrenchieCat Feb 2016 #12
What was the avg AGE of NV ProgressiveEconomist Feb 2016 #14
Nevada tends towards the older voter along all demographic lines. That favors Hillary. w4rma Feb 2016 #15

dana_b

(11,546 posts)
1. it's a good start!
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:08 AM
Feb 2016

Someone else posted something about it tonight... it might be on the GDP first page, about how Bernie COULD win the rest of the caucuses and the Latino community is crucial to this.

 

w4rma

(31,700 posts)
3. I completely disagree with that analysis that the entrance/exit polls were somehow "off".
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:13 AM
Feb 2016

I had been paying attention to the polls, before the election, and expected Bernie to win the Latino vote and lose the African-American vote.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1262964

 

w4rma

(31,700 posts)
7. I am completely cool with Camp Weathervane whistling past their graveyard.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 07:27 AM
Feb 2016

Just don't bring the rest of us down with you.

72DejaVu

(1,545 posts)
17. well that depends
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:34 AM
Feb 2016

If they show Bernie winning, they are as reliable as Old Faithful. If they show Hillary winning, they are junk.

Erich Bloodaxe BSN

(14,733 posts)
10. There's some question about whether or not it happened.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:01 AM
Feb 2016

Entrance polling said Sanders won Latinos, but someone posted links that suggested that Sanders did poorly in areas that were mostly Latino. I'm not sure how to square that circle. Were people lying to pollsters? Did more Latinos actually caucus in places they wouldn't be expected to?

 

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
11. That explains why HRC's friends here are so obsessed with denying that it happened.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:04 AM
Feb 2016

It's like they think HRC was OWED a Latino majority.

ProgressiveEconomist

(5,818 posts)
14. What was the avg AGE of NV
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 08:58 AM
Feb 2016

Latino caucus voters. What proportion of NV Latinos who turned out for BHO in 2008 turned out for yesterday's NV caucuses.

IMO, taking age distribution into account very likely turns SBS Hispanic vote forecast for the GE not a win, but rather a YUGE loss.

I suspect SBS did very well among naive Latino millenials, but not so well among greyer Latinos who've lived through Nixon, Reagan, and two Bushes.

 

w4rma

(31,700 posts)
15. Nevada tends towards the older voter along all demographic lines. That favors Hillary.
Sun Feb 21, 2016, 09:05 AM
Feb 2016

But, as FiveThirtyEight noted, Nevada’s voters are mostly old. And the support of millennials and the Latino community wasn’t enough to edge out Clinton, who won the Nevada Democratic caucus with 52% of the vote.
http://qz.com/621302/sanders-may-have-lost-nevada-but-he-won-over-the-crucial-hispanic-vote/

As Nate Cohn points out, Nevada’s voters are fairly old — and no demographic trait has better predicted support for the Democratic candidates than the age of the voter, with younger Democrats flocking overwhelmingly to Sanders and older ones to Clinton. And maybe it’s Clinton who benefits from holding a caucus since Sanders relies on support from first-time voters who may not show up to vote at 11 a.m. on a Saturday morning.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/nevada-caucus-south-carolina-primary-presidential-election-2016/

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