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Sun Feb 28, 2016, 02:17 PM

Polls and turnouts - was the turn out in South Carolina depressed because

everyone thought they knew the outcome in advance?
I doubt that the results here would have changed if more people had voted, but low turn out could be a disaster in November.

17 replies, 1935 views

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Response to hedgehog (Original post)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 02:36 PM

1. they have very low social media there, they get all info from M$NBC and Fox. 12% turnout should

 

scare the shit out of everyone including the over the top HRC supporters.

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Response to litlbilly (Reply #1)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 02:37 PM

2. LOL n/t

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Response to litlbilly (Reply #1)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 02:58 PM

3. your guy convinced 25% of the voter to choose HIM. that should scare the shit out of bernie lol nt

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Response to litlbilly (Reply #1)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 03:09 PM

6. Do you have evidence regarding the relative levels of social media by state?

That would be interesting to see.

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Response to onenote (Reply #6)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 03:22 PM

8. ignore, I dont answer stupid questions

 

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Response to onenote (Reply #6)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 03:25 PM

10. When this poster is questioned and can't answer

 

he just puts you on Ignore.

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Response to Codeine (Reply #10)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 05:31 PM

17. Odd. I really was wondering if there is such information.

Wouldn't completely surprise me if there was.

There is data showing that South Carolina (like a lot of southern states) has fewer homes with Internet connections than many other states. But I doubt that the number of people without access to social media explains the results in South Carolina, where Clinton outperformed Bernie even amongst voters at every educational level (including the 40 percent with college degrees and post graduate degrees) and voters in every income classification.

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Response to litlbilly (Reply #1)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 03:24 PM

9. Is that really so?

Is social media able to be tracked? I know, this may be an ignorant question, but that shocked me.

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Response to MrMickeysMom (Reply #9)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 03:36 PM

12. If they get all their info from tv, what do you think is gonna happen? doesnt take a rocket

 

scientist

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Response to litlbilly (Reply #12)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 03:40 PM

14. Let me ask again...

How can you know how weak social media is in SC?

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Response to MrMickeysMom (Reply #14)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 03:46 PM

15. just a guess, but to me, its obvious

 

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Response to hedgehog (Original post)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 03:03 PM

4. My frame...

Hillary Clinton is the de facto nominee and if there were widespread dissatisfaction with her among Democrats they would be coming out to vote against her in droves, and consequently turnout would be much higher. It seems most Democrats are comfortable wit the fact.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #4)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 03:25 PM

11. I don't know that it would be so much "widespread dissatisfaction with her", so much as...

widespread, "I don't care" about her. In fairness, they would care as much about Bernie Sanders.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #4)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 03:37 PM

13. Or have resigned themselves to losing the election.

 

Much more likely.

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Response to basselope (Reply #13)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 03:47 PM

16. Respectfully, your logic is flawed, and perhaps irretrievably so.




Simple surveys that ask people who they expect to win are among the most
accurate methods for forecasting U.S. presidential elections

https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf
[div class="excerpt]


.





Studies of prediction market accuracy for election forecasting commonly compare the
daily market forecasts to results from polls published the same day. These studies generally find
that prediction markets yield more accurate forecasts than single polls.

https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf


http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner

The predictions markets suggest she has a 62% chance of being the next president. That's substantially than her closest competitor.


The efficacy of polls nine months out in predicting a general election winner is essentially null:



Trial-heat polls, hereafter simply referred to as polls, ask respondents for whom they
intend to vote if the election were held today. That is, polls do not provide predictions; they
provide snapshots of public opinion at a certain point in time. However, this is not how the
media commonly treat polls. Polling results are routinely interpreted as forecasts of what will
happen on Election Day (Hillygus 2011). This can result in poor predictions, in particular if the
election is still far away, because public opinion can be difficult to measure and fragile over the
course of a campaign. However, researchers found ways to deal with these problems and to
increase the accuracy of poll-based predictions

https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf

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Response to hedgehog (Original post)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 03:05 PM

5. It was virtually uncontested nt

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Response to hedgehog (Original post)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 03:10 PM

7. I am not sure that the average person is acquainted with proportional delegates

Could it be some knew Hillary was going to win and did not show up because they did not think their vote mattered?

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