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Sun Feb 28, 2016, 05:16 PM

Who has the actual turnout numbers for past primaries/contests?

Lot of people keep talking about how Republican turnout is up while Democratic turnout has been down this primary season.
It's a very important topic, but it isn't getting the kind of careful analysis that it merits.

Who has the actual numbers?

Let's take the Democrats in South Carolina, for instance.

1992 - 116,000 (?)*
1996 - no real primary**
2000 - caucus, not a primary***
2004 - 292,000 voters
2008 - 530,000 voters
2012 - no real primary**
2016 - 367,000

Yes, 367,000 votes cast this year is down from 530,000 votes cast in 2008. But 2008 had Obama, the first African-American candidate with a realistic shot at the nomination on the ballot, AND had John Edwards, who was FROM SOUTH CAROLINA, on the ballot. So 2008 probably isn't exactly a representative year.

The 2016 South Carolina Democratic turnout is clearly better than the 2004 turnout was.
It's also a lot better than the 1992 turnout was, although that apparent increase is tempered somewhat by the fact that the state population has grown quite a bit since the early 1990s.

* http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=45&year=1992&f=0&off=0&elect=1

** Clinton and Obama were incumbent Democratic presidents

*** Did the party ever release the actual total turnout numbers? What were they, for comparisons sake?

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Reply Who has the actual turnout numbers for past primaries/contests? (Original post)
TheDormouse Feb 2016 OP
TM99 Feb 2016 #1
TheDormouse Feb 2016 #3
TheDormouse Feb 2016 #4
mahina Feb 2016 #2
SickOfTheOnePct Feb 2016 #5
TheDormouse Feb 2016 #6
Contrary1 Feb 2016 #7

Response to TheDormouse (Original post)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 05:36 PM

1. But where are the Republican turnout

 

numbers to compare and contrast to?

In South Carolina, the GOP turnout was 2 to 1 that of the Democrats. It was that in the other states as well. That on the whole is bad for Democrats in the GE.

What I continuously find interesting is this penny smart pound foolish attitude of Clinton supporters. They only think about the primary. They only focus on the short-sighted stuff. They never consider that if Brock goes all Rovian on Sanders that this might have a negative effect on the GE.

The voter turnout information is the same.

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Response to TM99 (Reply #1)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 06:15 PM

3. South Carolina is a RED state, 2-to-1 R-to-D turnout isn't a surprise

South Carolina:
Gov Mark Sanford (R)
Gov Nikki Haley (R)
Sen Lindsey Graham (R)
Sen Tim Scott (R)

state senate 28-18 Republican majority
state assembly 78-46 Republican majority

How many years did Strom Thurmond keep gettin re-elected from South Carolina?
How long did it take them to take down the Confederate flag?


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Response to TM99 (Reply #1)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 06:16 PM

4. Btw the OP was asking about Dem and Rep turnout numbers

not just about Dem numbers.

That's what I am asking. Who has the actual numbers for each election year for each party so we can see case by case?

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Response to TheDormouse (Original post)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 05:46 PM

2. K & r

Thanks for that context!

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Response to TheDormouse (Original post)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 08:22 PM

5. Edwards got ~93,500 votes in 2008

Take those out of the 2008 number, and you get 436,500, which is still a 16% drop in turnout.

For whatever reason, fewer Democrats are coming out for the primaries.

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Response to SickOfTheOnePct (Reply #5)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 09:18 PM

6. Well, there were 7 serious candidates on the ballot in 2008 ...

Obama
Clinton
Edwards - Senator from the state the primary was being held in
Richardson - Governor, former ambassador & cabinet secretary
Biden - prominent Senator
Kucinich - prominent Congressman and a leader of the liberal wing of the party
Dodd - prominent Senator
(plus Mike Gravel)

So even without Edwards, there were multiple campaign organizations raising money and canvassing for votes, which would have driven up interest.

Plus, according to Wikipedia, there had been 24--count them--24 Democratic primary debates by this time in the campaign season back in 2008. Compared to just the handful there have been this time around.

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Response to TheDormouse (Original post)

Sun Feb 28, 2016, 10:23 PM

7. Maybe this will help:

My old eyes have trouble following this, but it seems to have a lot of info...goes all the way back to the election of 1797.



http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/voter-turnout-data

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