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Tue Mar 1, 2016, 04:55 PM

The Numbers Bernie Needs Tonight



The first number is the total number of pledged delegates in the state. The second number is taken from 538's delegate tracker, and represents the number Bernie would be expected to get if he is tied 50-50 nationwide. The third number is taken from the excellent work of MattTX at DailyKos, a Bernie supporter and a numbers wonk with an incredible attention to detail. This number represents the numbers Bernie would need to get in order to meet the worst case scenario for Bernie that still allows him to win the nomination (it assumes a gradual but massive national shift in his direction, culminating in a California win).

If Bernie consistently meets or exceeds either number for these states, we can safely say that he is still competitive in the race.

Feel free to copy this to the Bernie and Hillary groups for your own discussions (I'll be caucusing for much of the night).

Hope both sides find it useful!

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Arrow 22 replies Author Time Post
Reply The Numbers Bernie Needs Tonight (Original post)
Chichiri Mar 2016 OP
Peace Patriot Mar 2016 #1
hill2016 Mar 2016 #2
ismnotwasm Mar 2016 #3
Stuckinthebush Mar 2016 #4
Bucky Mar 2016 #5
auntpurl Mar 2016 #7
Bucky Mar 2016 #10
morningfog Mar 2016 #6
MADem Mar 2016 #8
Peace Patriot Mar 2016 #13
Chichiri Mar 2016 #11
Jamaal510 Mar 2016 #9
NastyRiffraff Mar 2016 #12
UtahLib Mar 2016 #14
fun n serious Mar 2016 #15
Chichiri Mar 2016 #17
wysi Mar 2016 #16
Lucinda Mar 2016 #18
tammywammy Mar 2016 #19
VulgarPoet Mar 2016 #20
NEDem Mar 2016 #21
SidDithers Mar 2016 #22

Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 05:18 PM

1. Thanks for this! The delegate count is what's important today.

Greatly appreciated!

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 05:24 PM

2. bottom line

 

if Hillary picks up 100 more delegates than Sanders, fat lady has sung?

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 05:24 PM

3. K&R

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 05:28 PM

4. Great stuff as always, Chichiri!

This is a good chart to keep handy tonight. Thanks!

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 05:31 PM

5. Thank you. Quite useful for a results-geek like me.

(And good luck to Secretary Clinton from this Bernie supporter!)

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Response to Bucky (Reply #5)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 05:35 PM

7. Thank you! Good luck to Bernie and his supporters!

I am a numbers geek too. I keep wading through the mess in GD-P looking for polling data and early results, lol.

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Response to auntpurl (Reply #7)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 05:50 PM

10. Look you inspired a poem from me

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 05:32 PM

6. This projection/expectation assumes all things being equal

 

moving forward. Reality doesn't work that way.

There can be significant shifts depending on stories that can't be anticipated.

Lest some dipshit says "wishful thinking" or some such nonsense, my point is simply that should Bernie not hit these numbers tonight, it is not mean he has been eliminated. It will be harder for him the shorter he falls now, but there are a lot of delegates in play, and more importantly, a lot of time. Political narratives can turn quickly.

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Response to morningfog (Reply #6)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 05:36 PM

8. He does need to get somewhere in that general vicinity, though, wouldn't you agree?

There is a point in time and numbers where a tipping point is reached.

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Response to MADem (Reply #8)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 06:13 PM

13. If it were any ol' DLC/DNC type candidate, I would agree. But it's not.

For one thing, Bernie Sanders just had another huge surge in contributions from ordinary people, with all the corpo-fascist media spelling his doom. That is NOT an ordinary candidate.

Sanders is leading a New Deal-type revolution and is not in it for personal glory or gain, or that's how I and many others perceive him--and the facts of his life, and this campaign, bear it out. He will not quit. He is trying to give US a VOICE--the beleaguered, looted majority. WE have no voice in the Clinton Foundation, but Saudi Arabia does. WE have no voice in foreign policy, but Henry Kissinger does--a Clinton buddy! We have no voice on the minimum wage, U.S. manufacturing, college tuition, medical costs--but Goldman Sachs does!

So it's not a "delegate count" or any other kind of count in this extraordinarily rigged political system. It's that the voices of the people cannot be heard, including the voices of the dupes who vote for Clinton today. THEY will not be heard, believe me. They are just peons, as we all are.

Bernie Sanders is raising the voice of the dispossessed, and he will not stop doing it if he is shouted down.

What I meant, above, by the delegate count being important today, is not only that 'wins' of states (majority votes) is far less important than delegate counts, as to winning the nomination, but also that the more delegates we have, the more our voices we have at the convention, to speak about the vital issues that Sanders has raised on our behalf, and the more clout he has at influencing the ticket and the platform. Not that Clinton gives a crap about the Democratic Party platform (which has been for Medicare for all since Harry Truman! --for instance). But it can provide specific goals for reforming the Democratic Party if that is possible.

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Response to morningfog (Reply #6)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 06:05 PM

11. Actually, the projection assumes things get BETTER for Bernie going forward.

MattTX's numbers assume that Bernie's numbers will increase to 51-40 by the end of May (which is about 55-45 with undecideds breaking evenly). They also ignore superdelegates, assuming that they'll support Bernie if he wins the most pledged delegates.

So if Bernie underperforms versus these numbers tonight, technically he's not out of it -- but he won't be able to come back all the way unless something catastrophic happens, like Hillary being charged with a felony, or being struck by a meteor.

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 05:49 PM

9. K&R

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 06:06 PM

12. K&R

It's a good starting point. Of course, as a Sanders supporter said, things can change, but I don't think the poster means that Sanders would be mathematically eliminated if he doesn't meet those numbers; only that he would have a very tough row to hoe.

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 06:42 PM

14. K&R

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 06:50 PM

15. Thank you! nt

 

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Response to fun n serious (Reply #15)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 09:17 PM

17. You betcha. nt

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 07:07 PM

16. Kicking

... from a fellow numbers geek.

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 09:28 PM

18. KNR

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 10:38 PM

19. Kick

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 10:39 PM

20. Kick, and good luck.

Cold, hard numbers are always nice, even if they don't match the tea leaves.

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Tue Mar 1, 2016, 11:33 PM

21. K&R

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 12:05 AM

22. Kick...

Will be interesting to fill in the actual numbers tomorrow.

It looks like Bernie maybe hit his target in the states he won, but badly missed his target in every other state.

Which makes his road ahead that much more difficult.

Sid

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