Sanders Lost Massachusetts in Boston - Very Nearly Literally

[alcibiades_mystery]

Let's put aside the "who should have won," "what polls said last week," "tie, no tie, virtual tie," and all that jazz. Let's look very clearly at what actually happened.

Hillary Clinton received more votes than Bernie Sanders in Massachusetts yesterday: her spread statewide is about 20,000 votes out of nearly 1.2 million cast - razor thin, to be sure. Here's the crazy part: Clinton won Boston proper (the municipal area) by 16 points (58-42) - amounting to just shy of 20,000 votes (71,000+ - 51,000+). She nearly literally won the state in Boston itself.

In fact, Sanders lost many (if not the vast majority) of major and minor cities in Massachusetts. He lost from Boston all the way to Worcester, solid - many of those areas by 20+ points. He lost Lowell, Lawrence, and Lyle. He lost Springfield, by a lot. He lost New Bedford and Fall River and Falmouth. He even lost Pittsfield. Bernie held a major rally in Worcester, so some people thought it would make up the deficit late. It didn't: he lost Worcester. He even lost Cambridge, by 2,000 votes. Did Bernie win at all in greater Boston. Yes. He won in Somerville, Quincy, Weymouth, and Braintree.

Why didn't Sanders message take hold in Boston? Or, really, in the Boston area, or, really, in most of the major population centers?

[LexVegas]

1. How diverse is the electorate outside of the areas Clinton won? nt

[tymorial]

2. I can answer that... i live here.

Not very.

[NurseJackie]

4. That's what I was wondering.

[alcibiades_mystery]

7. Not sure

It's also true that she won some majority white suburbs pretty handily, though.

The near suburbs and municipalities she lost badly (Somerville) or mid-level (Quincy, Weymouth, Braintree) are heavily white (with Braintree, at 94% white, 1% African American) being the most "segregated" of the lot.

[stonecutter357]

3. K&R!

[Nanjeanne]

5. In 2008 Clinton won the state by more than 15% and that was even

After Kennedy endorsed Obama. That Sanders lost by about 1% and 20,000 votes and only 2 delegate spread is a pretty amazing thing considering how well known and popular Clinton has been in MA.

Of course that doesn't fit with the pundit slant -- so they don't talk about how much better Sanders has done than Obama did.

[alcibiades_mystery]

6. No doubt true

Still, the big losses in major population areas would seem to cut against a Sanders narrative too, no? How does he lose the city of Boston by 20k votes? It bears explaining.

[dchill]

27. "cut against a Sanders narrative..."

Doesn't everything? Sanders did 5 points better than Obama.

[alcibiades_mystery]

29. No, some points confirm Sanders' narrative

But it's hard to have a political revolution if you're losing liberal population centers.

[dchill]

34. He will no doubt win them in November.

[alcibiades_mystery]

36. He would have to win them big, is the problem, and he's not connecting

You don't just have to win Philly - you have to absolutely crush. You don't just have to win Cuyahoga County - you have to massacre the GOP so badly that it outweighs the rest of the state. You don't just have to win NoVa, you have to dominate. You don't just have to win Clark County, you have to smash it.

Sanders seems incapable of that. He's losing badly in major liberal population centers. It's not a promising sign for the general.

[dchill]

38. But of course HRC has no liabilities. After all, it was a clean sweep last night...

Right? Sanders is connecting just fine, when one considers the mendacious greedballs working for his opposition, and the fawning media only too willing to push their false narrative. And Bill and his bullhorn.

[alcibiades_mystery]

46. Crazy that those 20,000 Sanders voters got blocked

Hoo-weee!

[book_worm]

10. Sorry but most people believed that MA was a made for Sanders

up until a week or so ago he was beginning to lead in the polls and then HRC began to catch up. It's also part of his NE base. I feel that HRC also has a good shot at Connecticut.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. I was in Fall River when I was a kid...

I remember the Howard Johnson motel had a swimming pool and a sauna. I also remember it was a working class city.

[Punkingal]

9. Why didn't Hillary win Northampton where she went to college?

I thought that was pretty funny.

[alcibiades_mystery]

11. She went to college 45 years ago, right?

Hell, I went to college 20 years ago and I'd probably get lost there now.

Northhampton and Amherst were complete ass-kickings, to be sure.

She pulled it out in Holyoke, though.

I'm still perplexed by why Bernie loses Greater Boston so badly.

[Punkingal]

13. Uh, probably establishment support?

You are familiar with Boston politics, right?

[Bad Thoughts]

18. Boston is mostly a machine town

Which is why Martha Coakely did so poorly in 2010.

[bettyellen]

28. Diverse= corrupt on it's face now. Gotta love it.

[Bad Thoughts]

32. What has diversity to do with it?

There is a very well organized set of Democratic organizations, and winning state-wide offices almost explicitly cannot be won without their participation. You can look up Coakley's loss if you want.

[bettyellen]

40. Diversity in Boston compared to the rest of Mass means nothing?

[Bad Thoughts]

41. Other parts of Massachusetts can be diverse

Like the Pioneer Valley, where I lived for 13 years.

That said, the particulars of the organization are independent of ethnic composition. In the future, do not impugn my motives.

[bettyellen]

43. Not impugning your motives- but asking have you not checked voter demographics? You might find

a pattern that we've seen before, and one that does not require a CT to explain the votes.

[Bad Thoughts]

44. It's experience, not CT

Like I said, I lived in MA for several years. A worked on several political campaigns, mostly local stuff, but also for the campaigns for Deval Patrick, Wes Clark, John Kerry, and attempts to reverse Goodridge.

[book_worm]

19. Well, maybe you can explain why Bernie not only lost Boston, but...

many of the minor and major cities in MA as the article says:

In fact, Sanders lost many (if not the vast majority) of major and minor cities in Massachusetts. He lost from Boston all the way to Worcester, solid - many of those areas by 20+ points. He lost Lowell, Lawrence, and Lyle. He lost Springfield, by a lot. He lost New Bedford and Fall River and Falmouth. He even lost Pittsfield. Bernie held a major rally in Worcester, so some people thought it would make up the deficit late. It didn't: he lost Worcester. He even lost Cambridge, by 2,000 votes.

[Punkingal]

23. I can't explain it, I'm no expert. I'm just guessing.

I have always heard that Boston has machine politics, that's all. It really doesn't matter at this point, she won.

[alcibiades_mystery]

22. Like organization and the like?

OK.

Still seems like Bernie should do better in population centers, especially liberal-leaning ones. Next time, I guess.

[book_worm]

16. Besides she went to Wellesley and won Wellesley

69-31.

[Bad Thoughts]

12. She went to Wellsey near Waltham. eom.

[alcibiades_mystery]

15. In that case, she won in a landslide

Wellesley:
HRC: 68.7%
SBS: 30.9

[book_worm]

14. hmm, didn't she attend Wellesley?

According to this she did win:

WELLESLEY, MA - Today Wellesley voters flooded the polls to place their picks for the Democratic and Republican nominees.

According to the Wellesley Town Clerk’s office, Hillary Clinton and John Kasich earned the most votes from their respective parties.



The results are here:

Democratic Presidential Nominee:

Hillary Clinton - 4,099 votes (69 percent)

Bernie Sanders - 1,799 votes (31 percent)

[KoKo]

17. Bill's appearance in New Bedford with a Bull Horn and Full SS Motorcade

holding up traffic and blocking voters might have something to do with the low turn out there. I think he went to a few other sites but he was videoed in New Bedford and there were many callers complaining they couldn't vote.

Good Video of it all at the link:


Did Bill Clinton violate election rules by going into a polling location?

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/2016/03/01/did-bill-clinton-violate-election-rules-venturing-into-polling-location/PH4FIH9jCKYKf6Fzyvfz2N/story.html#comments

[book_worm]

21. Yeah, right.

Always excuses.

[auntpurl]

20. Diversity, I would imagine.

[alcibiades_mystery]

24. Certainly makes sense in places like Brockton

(HRC: 63-SBS:35...31% African American)

It would suggest that Sanders has as much difficulty with northern African American voters as with southern African American voters. I don't think it accounts for all the differences, though.

[auntpurl]

25. Not sure about the rest of the differences.

Does Boston generally vote for the more liberal candidate than the rest of the state? In that case, this would be a surprise.

[Blue_Adept]

26. It again sounds like the youth didn't show up.

[Agnosticsherbet]

30. The singular strength of the Democratic Party is its diversity.

So far, Clinton has shown she is popular across a broad spectrum of the Democratic Party.

[alcibiades_mystery]

33. How is Sanders supposed to win Ohio in the general if he can't pull voters from Cleveland?

That's the big question here.

Is PA vulnerable if Sanders can't draw big in Philadelphia?

The Massachusetts vote distribution is a very troubling sign for a Sanders general election campaign: he can't win major population centers, even liberal ones. Why isn't he connecting?

As a side note, he also lost Northern Virginia badly: he will need that area to win Virginia in the fall. He's proven particularly incapable of attracting voters from major population centers. That's a real problem.

[Agnosticsherbet]

39. IMHO, We should not confuse the General Election with the Primary.

I think that his lack of appeal to large swathes of the diverse Democratic Base is what will defeat him in the Primary. We will need to wait until we have a solid nominee to look in these places and determine viability in the General Election.

[KingFlorez]

31. The non-white vote played a significant part in Clinton winning

If you look at the map, she carried the most diverse areas of the state by huge margins and in a close race, that helps a lot.

[jillan]

35. Why did Hillary lose Austin Tx? Same dumb

Question.

[alcibiades_mystery]

37. That's mean

[mcar]

42. I miss Boston!

I love to go back and visit family there. Kudos to them for helping HRC.