2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHere's the next block of Primary/Caucus States...
Saturday:
Kansas (37)
Louisiana (59) Clinton +31
Nebraska Caucus (30)
Sunday:
Maine Caucus (30)
Tuesday:
Michigan (147) Clinton +19
Mississippi (41) Clinton +34
March 12:
Northern Marianas (11)
March 15:
Florida (246) Clinton +29
Illinois (182) Clinton +19
Missouri (84)
North Carolina (121) Clinton +18
Ohio (159) Clinton +15
The new line from Sanders' supporters is that the Primary schedule has been frontloaded with conservative States, and now the calendar favors Bernie. Which States is he realistically going to pick up that have enough delegates to make a difference? I'll give him KS, ME and MO, but that's not a lot to work with.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)brooklynite
(94,360 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Due to its demographics, Michigan will be considered predictive of how states like Ohio, Illinois, New York, etc will go. If Bernie can't win decisively in Michigan, there is no path, other than Clinton dropping out, left that any statistician would be comfortable forecasting for Bernie.
datguy_6
(176 posts)We fully expect Hillary to win MI, OH, IL and FL, what Bernie needs to do is keep it close...its all about being viable heading into the back stretch of the primaries where anything is possible...
Bernie will take KS, NE and ME this weekend, while Hillary will win LA, MS 75% to 25% and NC and MO will be 65% to 35%...
The calendar after March15th gets much more favorable:
March 22 - AZ, ID and UT - All Bernie wins
March 26 - AK, HI and WA -All Bernie wins
April 5th - WI - Bernie wins
April 9th - WY - Bernie wins
April 19th - NY - Should be competitive
April 26th - CT, MD, DE, PA and RI - Also should be competitive
After March 15th, Hillary could go entire month without a win and though we haven't seen her February fundraising and spending numbers yet, she is probably hurting for cash...
Svafa
(594 posts)a state that nobody has any idea wtf will happen in.