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Tom Rinaldo

(22,912 posts)
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 12:12 PM Mar 2016

There are still two way for Sanders to win the Democratic Nomination

Both scenarios are long shots, but they are real. Sanders did well enough last night by winning four contests to make scenario number one possible; which is an outright defeat of Hillary Clinton. For that to happen the campaign narrative needs to change significantly, and with it the momentum in the race.

Outside of the South, Hillary Clinton has had a had time putting Sanders away in any contest by anything approaching a resounding manner, and he has won most of them. Clinton's razor thin victory by about a quarter of one percent in Iowa barely counts; that falls well within the margin that triggers off an automatic recount in almost all normal elections. Hillary won clear but non decisive victories in Nevada and Massachusetts. Bernie won resounding victories in New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado, and Vermont, plus a strong ten point victory in Oklahoma.

The national campaign now starts to shift away from the South where Hillary Clinton has so clearly been dominant. There are four Democratic contests coming up this week before the primary in Michigan next Tuesday. Hillary can be expected to do extremely well in Louisiana, that is already baked in. The outcomes in Kansas, Nebraska and Maine are less certain, but there are reasons to think that Bernie can do well in all of them. There will also be another Democratic debate before the Michigan primary. If Bernie has a good week preceding the Michigan primary that contest becomes key to him.

Here is where the expectations game potentially shifts. Unlike with Super Tuesday, election night coverage next Tuesday won't literally be all over the map. On the Democratic side there will only be Michigan and Mississippi, and there is no mystery or intrigue concerning the latter. With an upset win in Michigan it may be possible for Sanders to leave that state having won four out of the last six Democratic contests, with the only exceptions being two deep South states no one gave him any prayer of winning. Not only that, but for Bernie to win in Michigan he will have had to demonstrably over performed current expectations of him. He will either have had to significantly decrease the percentage by which Hillary has been winning minority votes and/or strongly dominate the working class white vote and/or turn out the youth vote in much higher numbers than has generally been the case so far. None of that will be easy, which is precisely why it will instantly become very news worthy if Bernie Sanders wins in Michigan.

Obviously what determines who wins the Democratic nomination for President comes down to who wins the most delegates, not who has the best campaign narrative or the most momentum in mid March of 2016. But when the question is asked can Bernie Sanders still win the delegates he needs to become the nominee, the answer is yes. Not likely, but still definitely yes. If and when momentum strongly shifts, so does subsequent political reality. It is rare for momentum to swing back and forth like a pendulum, which is why whoever has it at this stage of a race usually builds on it and coasts to victory. That is why it seems so virtually impossible to many for Bernie Sanders to still turn this around, for him to win enough of the remaining states with big enough margins of victory to overtake the lead in delegates that Hillary Clinton now enjoys. But a scenario like the one I describe above is one that could open that window of opportunity for him.

The Clinton camp will deny that possibly vehemently. It is in their self interest to do so, to do so loudly, and to do so loudly repeatedly. Momentum, after all is ultimately an intangible that frequently spawns a self fulfilling prophesy. Based on current campaign dynamics, and the difficulty involved in altering those meaningfully, the odds do clearly favor Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination for President. But there is a real factual basis for extrapolating how that can still change. And with a strong and passionate base of support and plenty of money in the bank, it is still possible for Bernie Sanders to do that. The seemingly improbable has happened before. Bernie Sanders has already shown that.

The second scenario is also a long shot, and I am not in any way arguing for it, but Hillary Clinton's campaign could still end up in serious difficulty if Hillary Clinton does herself, in regards to the FBI investigation of her emails etc. I really do not expect that to happen, but it is not beyond being conceivable. In the very unlikely event hat Hillary Clinton is forced to leave the race her delegates would then be up for grab in an open convention. If Bernie Sanders remains in this race and wins a considerable number of contests and delegate from here on out while doing so, it would become harder for the Democratic Party establishment to deny him the nomination by pushing for someone who didn't compete, say Joe Biden, instead. Under the circumstances it is prudent for Bernie Sanders to continue to actively contest the Democratic nomination throughout the full primary season.

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There are still two way for Sanders to win the Democratic Nomination (Original Post) Tom Rinaldo Mar 2016 OP
I don't deny the possibility auntpurl Mar 2016 #1
K & R !!! WillyT Mar 2016 #2
Michigan is not going to happen. Kalidurga Mar 2016 #3
Bernie has done remarkably well in "non progressive" areas of states... Tom Rinaldo Mar 2016 #7
Well there is a glimmer of hope. Kalidurga Mar 2016 #8
The delegate math is ominous for Bernie... SidDithers Mar 2016 #4
Outside of the South his victoy margins last night were large Tom Rinaldo Mar 2016 #5
Which states, realistically, do you think Bernie will win by 30 or 40 points?... SidDithers Mar 2016 #6
He needs a good number of 20 point plus victories, and many 10 plus wins Tom Rinaldo Mar 2016 #9
Hillary Clinton is not winning southern states because of geography. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #10
The Southern States are notable because of how large a percent the AA vote is there Tom Rinaldo Mar 2016 #11
FL, CA, NY, NJ, IL, MI, PN, OH , et cetera... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #13
I don't know if Sanders can significantly increase his support from minority voters Tom Rinaldo Mar 2016 #15
This is a good summary and analysis Cheese Sandwich Mar 2016 #12
If Bernie has a "virtual tie" in Michigan and a solid win in Ohio say... Tom Rinaldo Mar 2016 #23
Bernie is not going to win and here's why. CajunBlazer Mar 2016 #14
If Bernie wins 3 out of 4 contests before Michigan... Tom Rinaldo Mar 2016 #16
Yes, there have been bumps in the road, my friend... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #18
We agree. And Louisiana was the 4th out of 4 I count on Sanders losing Tom Rinaldo Mar 2016 #19
I will give you that... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #20
No, because even if he were to win 3 out of 4.... CajunBlazer Mar 2016 #21
Kentucky is in May on the Democratic side. Maine is March 6th Tom Rinaldo Mar 2016 #22
You're entitled to your hopes and dreams CajunBlazer Mar 2016 #24
The bottom line is nearly 40% of all Democratic primary voters are minority voters DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #17
kick! kath Mar 2016 #25

auntpurl

(4,311 posts)
1. I don't deny the possibility
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 12:16 PM
Mar 2016

Anything is possible. This is a bit spinny, but it is a possible scenario.

Good luck to Bernie and his supporters.

Kalidurga

(14,177 posts)
3. Michigan is not going to happen.
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 12:27 PM
Mar 2016

I would love to be an optimist on this. But, I grew up there and well it's not a progressive state by any stretch of the imagination.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,912 posts)
7. Bernie has done remarkably well in "non progressive" areas of states...
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 12:37 PM
Mar 2016

...that he has either won or been competitive in. He did well in Nevada for example outside of Las Vegas which is the Democratic strong hold there.

Kalidurga

(14,177 posts)
8. Well there is a glimmer of hope.
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 12:39 PM
Mar 2016

I really hope he does well in Michigan even if it isn't an outright win it will make me feel better about the chances of Michigan getting out of the deep economic depression they are in.

SidDithers

(44,228 posts)
4. The delegate math is ominous for Bernie...
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 12:29 PM
Mar 2016

As one writer put it "He needs landslides to counter landslides, and he doesn't have them"

Sid

Tom Rinaldo

(22,912 posts)
5. Outside of the South his victoy margins last night were large
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 12:35 PM
Mar 2016

And this despite solid negative press about his campaign's chances since the Nevada caucus. If momentum changes it can be dramatic, and there are far more contests remaining than have been decided so far.

SidDithers

(44,228 posts)
6. Which states, realistically, do you think Bernie will win by 30 or 40 points?...
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 12:35 PM
Mar 2016

Edit: and don't say California. Hillary won 70% of the Latino vote in Texas yesterday, which bodes well for California.

Sid

Tom Rinaldo

(22,912 posts)
9. He needs a good number of 20 point plus victories, and many 10 plus wins
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 12:41 PM
Mar 2016

I don't think Bernie has to win contests by 30 or 40 points. Bernie did much better with the Latino vote in Nevada than he did in Texas. He will need to do much better with the African American vote in Michigan than he did in Georgia. He could still lose the majority of them however.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
10. Hillary Clinton is not winning southern states because of geography.
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 12:41 PM
Mar 2016
Outside of the South, Hillary Clinton has had a had time putting Sanders away in any contest by anything approaching a resounding manner


Hillary Clinton's march through the south has little to do with geography and much do to demography and the delegate rich states left on the calendar are all heterogeneous, ergo:

HRC is + 29 in Florida:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-3556.html

HRC is +21 in New York:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html

HRC is + 19 in Pennsylvania:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary-4249.html

HRCis + 21 in Ohio:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary-5313.html

HRC is + 19 in Illinois:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary-5313.html


HRC is + 19 in North Carolina:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-5175.html


HRC is +14 in California:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html

HRC is +19 In Michigan:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html

HRC is +31 in New Jersey:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nj/new_jersey_democratic_presidential_primary-3443.html


Senator Sanders is losing the states he is losing now . not because a quirk of the primary calendar, but because they are heterogeneous. The more heterogeneous the state the worse Senator Sanders does. That's an empirical observation and not a normative one.


The second scenario is also a long shot, and I am not in any way arguing for it, but Hillary Clinton's campaign could still end up in serious difficulty if Hillary Clinton does herself, in regards to the FBI investigation of her emails etc. I really do not expect that to happen, but it is not beyond being conceivable




I eschew hypotheticals but in the highly... highly ,,, highly unlikely event this was come to pass the lion's share of Hillary Clinton's won and earned delegates would go to Joe Biden. Why? because he is the vice president of a beloved Democratic president and because of his policies he's every Hillary Clinton supporters' second choice. Throw in the fact that the beloved Democratic president would be infinitely more comfortable campaigning for and with Joe Biden than an independent senator cum Democrat and you have your answer.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,912 posts)
11. The Southern States are notable because of how large a percent the AA vote is there
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 12:48 PM
Mar 2016

Nevada was fairly heterogeneous and it was pretty close, Harry Reid swung it for Hillary. With so many well respected Hispanic leaders, not to mention union leaders present inside the caucuses in Las Vegas watching where people lined up to be counted, I suspect that directly influenced some important votes.

But that's why I said Michigan is important. Hillary should win it for the reasons you stated. If she doesn't some assumptions will have to be revisited.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
13. FL, CA, NY, NJ, IL, MI, PN, OH , et cetera...
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 12:59 PM
Mar 2016

FL, CA, NY, NJ, IL, MI, PN, OH , et cetera... all have substantial minority populations, with some more substantial than others. Off the top of my head the racial composition of FL, CA, and NY rival the deep south when it comes to minority population.



The actors have changed but the same demographic dynamics that asserted themselves in 2008 are asserting themselves in 2016. The race was essentially over in South Carolina when Hillary Clinton started hemorrhaging African American votes. The damage was mitigated by her strength among Hispanic voters but alas it wasn't enough. In retrospect it just took her a long time to give up the ghost, which is understandable.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,912 posts)
15. I don't know if Sanders can significantly increase his support from minority voters
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 01:09 PM
Mar 2016

Clearly he has to or he can not win. He has to begin to turn that around in Michigan, though he doesn't need to come out on top with minorities there - just do better. African American voters are at their highest concentration in Deep South Democratic primaries, not so many white Democrats down there. That breakdown of Democratic Party primary voters by race is less skewed elsewhere - that is a significant difference right there.

On top of that I do not know and won't claim to be in a position to guess whether any specific regional cultural or historical variables influenced Southern minority voter choices in a way that might not play out the same in another region of the nation. I am making no inferences in saying that, simply acknowledging that there sometimes are differences between regions that can effect voting patterns.

 

Cheese Sandwich

(9,086 posts)
12. This is a good summary and analysis
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 12:51 PM
Mar 2016

I would add Ohio into that mix too.

And another angle is that Bernie can keep getting "virtual ties" in a lot of places, like maybe Michigan, and win some other states like maybe do well in the mountain time zone, maybe Arizona, just keep collecting delegates that keep him alive to the point that larger wins on the west coast can put him over the top.

I find that to be a good motivating idea personally, that our job now is to just collect as many delegates as possible to position Bernie to be able to win in California. It's definitely a long shot. We're still the underdog campaign by far. But it's important to remember none of these states are winner take all and it's possible Bernie could have some natural strength out west especially in California. Again not likely but possible.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,912 posts)
23. If Bernie has a "virtual tie" in Michigan and a solid win in Ohio say...
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 03:56 PM
Mar 2016

...that would work out well in terms of him over achieving in the expectations game, which is a big part of a media campaign narrative. The delegate haul would not be dramatically different if Sanders narrowly won or lost Michigan. However a narrow win in Michigan would probably make it easier for him to go on and win another tough state like Ohio - speaking to that issue of perceived "momentum".

Conversely if Hillary loses Nebraska and Kansas and Maine and then Michigan, while only winning Louisiana and Mississippi, that opens up a new narrative: that Clinton is struggling outside of the South.

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
14. Bernie is not going to win and here's why.
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 01:02 PM
Mar 2016

First as DecocratSinceBirth has pointed out, even before the route on Super Tuesday, Bernie was behind by double digits in many states, including those with the most delegates. That alone should put a huge dampener on any chance Bernie has to win. However, that is just the start of his problems, because proportional distribution of delegates is a double edged sword.

Of course the loser doesn't get as far behind because he still gets delegates in states that he loses. However, it also means that once the loser gets too far behind (where Bernie is now) there is almost no way for him to catch up without huge wins of his own.

So think about it which states are Bernie going to win big enough make up for the 74 delegates difference in Texas, 34 in Alabama, 43 in GA, 33 in SC, 29 in VA and 18 in Tennessee? And that's not even counting the Southern states which haven't voted yet. The answer is nowhere. Hillary does well enough with white voters that it simply is not going to happen. Look at all of the states on DecocratSinceBirth's list; Bernie would not only have to catch up with Hilliary in those states, he would have to beat Hillary by large margins in some of the biggest states. It's simply not going to happen.

And as long as Hillary stays ahead on pledged delegates, her super delegates are not going to move.

The logical conclusion: Hilary wins the nomination, Bernie loses.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,912 posts)
16. If Bernie wins 3 out of 4 contests before Michigan...
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 01:15 PM
Mar 2016

...and then wins Michigan also it will be time to revisit some assumptions about Hillary's inevitable path to victory. That is all that I have said, and nothing that you wrote changes my opinion as expressed above. There were plenty of air tight logic arguments made for how Bernie was certain to fade away after the Paris terrorist attacks and Hillary's sterling performance during the Benghazi hearings also.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
18. Yes, there have been bumps in the road, my friend...
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 01:20 PM
Mar 2016

Yes, there have been bumps in the road, my friend, but we have the race we always thought we would have, with Hillary Clinton the prohibitive favorite, and the fundamentals asserting themselves.

BTW, Louisiana votes on Saturday and it's a closed primary. I think we can stipulate that Louisiana will be an easy Clinton win.



Tom Rinaldo

(22,912 posts)
19. We agree. And Louisiana was the 4th out of 4 I count on Sanders losing
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 01:31 PM
Mar 2016

But I will simply add that this isn't the race most expected us to have prior to shortly before Iowa. I sure as hell didn't expect Bernie Sanders to have won five states against Hillary at this stage of the contest back when he first announced.

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
21. No, because even if he were to win 3 out of 4....
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 01:49 PM
Mar 2016

.... he would win a some more delegates, but unless he win real big - we are talking about Bernie winning by results like 68% to 32% in all those states - he won't come anywhere close to making up the huge number of delegates he loss last night.

The next states to vote on March 5th are: Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska. Only one has recent polls - Louisiana which has Clinton up by 31%. Even without polls I can confidently predict that Bernie is going to be beat, probably by big numbers, in Kentucky and there is little chance that the will win by big numbers in Kansas and Nebraska. Even if he does win Kansas and Nebraska, Louisiana and Kentucky will easily cancel those two states out.

So, so much for the next four states. So four more states are down and Sanders is still going to be way behind.

If you want to get real discourage see DemocratSinceBirth's post above and see how Bernie is doing in the biggest states left on the primary calendar - the ones he need to win big in order to have a chance of catching Clinton.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,912 posts)
22. Kentucky is in May on the Democratic side. Maine is March 6th
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 03:47 PM
Mar 2016

And in regards to looking further ahead down the calendar, the future is always rewritten by the present. That is the concept of shifting momentum, and that is why I sketched out the scenario that I did.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
17. The bottom line is nearly 40% of all Democratic primary voters are minority voters
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 01:16 PM
Mar 2016

I haven's seen the break down of Asians but Senator Sanders is losing African Americans 4-1 and Hispanics 2-1. Even allowing for regional difference among groups none of the data suggests it is substantial.

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