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leveymg

(36,418 posts)
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:13 PM Mar 2016

Here's the Super Tuesday pattern: where HRC won, Dem turnout was severely suppressed.

There is no question that HRC has showed her strength in South Carolina and conservative, southern Super Tuesday states. However, the alarming fact is that Democratic turnout on Super Tuesday was down 32% overall, while GOP participation rose more than 60 percent compared to 2008. So far, Democratic primaries have attracted 26% fewer Democratic caucus goers and ballots than eight years ago. See, http://www.npr.org/2016/03/02/468918065/republican-super-tuesday-turnout

The exception to this was Colorado that went for Sanders with record Democratic turnout. In Oklahoma and Massachusetts, where Sanders showed strongly or beat Clinton, Democrats also showed up in large numbers. The Denver Post reported:

March 2, 1:29 a.m.: With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Bernie Sanders had 58.9 percent of the vote over Hillary Clinton's 40.3 percent. Colorado Democratic Party chairman Rick Palacio said that the turnout for Democrats surpassed that of the 2008 caucuses. Tuesday night, at least 121,232 people voted.

http://www.denverpost.com/election/ci_29581980/colorado-offers-sanders-chance-super-tuesday-favoring-clinton


Nationally, this may have been Hillary's night in seven states versus four won by Bernie. But, Democrats saw a steep plunge in turnout on Super Tuesday, while numbers for Republicans were sharply higher than in 2008.

Overall, 5.8 million Democrats voted in 11 Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses. That’s well off the 8.56 million that hit the polls in those same states in 2008, which saw a new wave of Democratic registrants eager to cast a vote for then-Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.

Turnout virtually cratered in Texas, which Clinton won in both cycles. There, just over 1.4 million voted this go-round compared to 2.87 million in 2008. The 51 percent slide is the steepest of any of the contests held Tuesday.

Turnout was also down significantly in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and Tennessee. It fell 28 percent, 34 percent, 29 percent, and 41 percent in those states, respectively.

The upside for Clinton, who won seven of the 11 Super Tuesday states that were up for grabs, is that the states with the largest drop in turnout are red and are unlikely to select a Democrat come November.

But turnout also dipped significantly in Virginia, a key battleground state. In 2008 just over 986,000 voted in the primary. This year, around 780,000 showed up, marking a 21 percent decline.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/02/democratic-turnout-down-32-in-super-tuesday-states-compared-to-2008/

Meanwhile, in Oklahoma, which had a record turnout and where Bernie won by a solid margin, Democratic numbers were less than 2012.

Oklahomans Cast Votes In Record Numbers In Primaries [View all]
OKLAHOMA CITY - Oklahoman had record voter turnout in Tuesday's primary. The state election board reports just over 795,000 people came out to vote.

More than 335,000 Democrats voted. That's three times as many in 2012, but less than 2008.

And nearly 460,000 Republicans cast a ballot. That's a new record for a party in a presidential primary.

Oklahoma voters bucked the national trend for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in presidential primaries, handing victories instead to their challengers on opposite ends of the political spectrum.

http://www.newson6.com/story/31364488/oklahomans-cast-votes-in-record-numbers-in-primaries


The takeaway from this is obvious. NBC summarized it this way as the final votes were being counted late last night:

Trading places?

In 2008, Democrats shattered voter turnout records in their epic presidential primary clash. This year is starting to look like a mirror image — but this time, with an advantage to the Republicans.

A tally of nine states where Democrats and Republicans both headed to the polls on Tuesday shows that total turnout looks much like it did eight years ago — but the numbers are reversed by party.

More than 5.6 million votes were cast in the Democratic contest on Tuesday in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia. About 8.3 million were cast on the GOP side in the same set of states.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/super-tuesday-voter-turnouts-similar-08-republicans-democrats-reversed-n530071

15 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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noamnety

(20,234 posts)
9. Some of them do.
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:32 PM
Mar 2016

We had people here that were downright gleeful at the thought of a snowstorm suppressing the college vote.

 

elehhhhna

(32,076 posts)
3. Houston tv news didn't mention early voting at all this year...
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:23 PM
Mar 2016

Cons and Dnc don't want us to vote in the primary.

 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
4. M$M reports were.....
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:28 PM
Mar 2016

Nearly all Trump this and Trump that.

When mentioned it was: Hillary is to be crowned.

When mentioned: Bernie is a socialist who hasn't a chance.

___________________

Our DNC refused to have debates in quantity or quality thereby handing over all the PR to the republicans.

And the Clinton machine is happy as can be turnout was dismal.

questionseverything

(9,651 posts)
7. i have a theory about trump
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:31 PM
Mar 2016

i think he was supposed to run as a rep,screw up the party then after the repubs kicked him out, he would run 3rd party

splitting the repub vote so hc could win

that is why the dnc didnt worry about giving the repubs a 2 month head start in the debates...and that 2 month head start is why we are having low turn out numbers

watching him last night, i wondered if he is having second thoughts about doing the 3rd party thing...like maybe he is thinking to himself...i could win this

oddest election of my life for sure

leveymg

(36,418 posts)
14. Along with NPR, NBC and the Denver Post
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:53 PM
Mar 2016

The overall summation at that segment from DailyCaller was concise and inclusive. I don't like the rag, it's RW, but the numbers are sound. I could have omitted the link and you'd never have known it. But, for the sake of transparency, the sourcing is included. If there's anything inaccurate, I'm sure someone will point that out. Until then, you just don't like the message. You shouldn't like the message.

RufusTFirefly

(8,812 posts)
11. The greatest threats to Hillary aren't Trump and the Republicans
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:39 PM
Mar 2016

They're 1) time and 2) the voters

The longer the campaign lasts and the more Democrats get out and vote, the greater trouble she'll be in.

Luckily, her campaign knows this. And so does the DNC.
(Or am I repeating myself?)

leveymg

(36,418 posts)
15. No. The opposite is true - where Sanders did well, Democrats generally turned out in large numbers.
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 05:59 PM
Mar 2016

This also illustrates the effect of Hillary's so-called enthusiasm gap. Most alarming, this indicates serious problems with our GOTV in November if she heads the ballot. But, some of her partisans won't grasp the evidence and the obvious implications.

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
13. Turnout was down only 5% in Massachusetts, which was the only contested election Hillary won
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:51 PM
Mar 2016

Turnout was down in Texas and the Southern states in part because they weren't contested.

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