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Chichiri

(4,667 posts)
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:28 PM Mar 2016

Bernie's advantages from here on out

Last edited Wed Mar 2, 2016, 07:02 PM - Edit history (1)

We know that most of the states going forward from here on out give a demographic advantage to Bernie. But what's more: we can quantify that advantage. That is, we can look at the demographics and other factors, and we can see not just whether Hillary or Bernie will win, but how much they will win by.

For example, Hillary had a 4-delegate advantage in Arkansas; that is, if the national vote is tied, we would expect Hillary to take 18 of the 32 delegates from that state, to Bernie's 14. (Hillary actually took 22.)

Another example: Hillary's massive advantage in Texas amounted to an expected 30 delegate lead; she was expected to take 126 delegates, to Bernie's 96. (She actually took 139 or more; the delegate count isn't finished yet.)

In short, while the states thus far have advantaged Hillary more than they have Bernie, that advantage works out to 37 delegates; that is, if the national vote is tied, Hillary should be 37 delegates ahead of Bernie; this is what we would expect from an American population split evenly between Bernie and Hillary.

As of this writing, Hillary is 197 delegates ahead.

In the 35 states and few odd territories to come, Bernie needs to exceed, not Hillary's numbers, but his own target numbers by an average of over 5 delegates each. In those places where he fails to meet that benchmark (and it's actually mathematically impossible for him to do so in a few of the territories), he needs to make up the difference elsewhere.

In fact, there are seven states -- Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Delaware, New Jersey -- and one territory, DC, which are demographically skewed toward Hillary, but that Bernie nevertheless needs to win. Again, if he loses, he needs to make up the difference elsewhere.

Here's a breakdown by state. The first number is the number of delegates in each state, the second is Bernie's target number based on demographics, the third is the number Bernie actually needs to take the nomination, and the fourth is the percentage of the total number of delegates he needs from that state. The blue-shaded states are demographically advantaged for Hillary, the green states for Bernie. The greater the percentage Bernie needs from each state, the deeper the red in the fourth column.






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Bernie's advantages from here on out (Original Post) Chichiri Mar 2016 OP
It certainly doesn't look very good for him. NurseJackie Mar 2016 #1
In short: outlook bleak for Team Bern. JaneyVee Mar 2016 #2
I can't wait for this to be over. grossproffit Mar 2016 #3
"pathetic." I think that is what Bernie referred to the vote outcome in SC. Not good. nt Jitter65 Mar 2016 #4
I celebrated. MoonRiver Mar 2016 #8
I celebrated in private. Chichiri Mar 2016 #17
K&R mcar Mar 2016 #5
Bookmarking! Thanks for this. livetohike Mar 2016 #6
I'm sorry - could you explain where the advantages are? brooklynite Mar 2016 #7
Take Vermont, for example. Chichiri Mar 2016 #12
I meant "from here on out" brooklynite Mar 2016 #13
I'm not sure what you're asking. Chichiri Mar 2016 #14
K&R! Laser102 Mar 2016 #9
Hard to argue with numbers NastyRiffraff Mar 2016 #10
It's easy to forget that around here. nt Chichiri Mar 2016 #19
Kick treestar Mar 2016 #11
Message auto-removed Name removed Mar 2016 #15
On the subject of money, I'll just leave this here . . . Chichiri Mar 2016 #16
K&R brer cat Mar 2016 #18
K&R. nt UtahLib Mar 2016 #20
Thankie for the info! Lucinda Mar 2016 #21
K & R eom KitSileya Mar 2016 #22
Great info! FrenchieCat Mar 2016 #23
K&R for visibility lunamagica Mar 2016 #24
K&R NEDem Mar 2016 #25
K & R SunSeeker Mar 2016 #26
Thanks for posting Gothmog Mar 2016 #27

grossproffit

(5,591 posts)
3. I can't wait for this to be over.
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:41 PM
Mar 2016

So much nastiness. It's really sad that Clinton supporters couldn't even celebrate her win last night. Actually, it's pathetic.

MoonRiver

(36,974 posts)
8. I celebrated.
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:57 PM
Mar 2016

Not really, but I felt very good about how she did, And btw everybody wants to WIN, including Bernie.

Chichiri

(4,667 posts)
17. I celebrated in private.
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 07:01 PM
Mar 2016

But not very loudly, because I was disappointed about Minnesota -- although Hillary did come in above target here.

Chichiri

(4,667 posts)
12. Take Vermont, for example.
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 05:35 PM
Mar 2016

It's extremely white, extremely liberal, and is Bernie's home state. Because of these factors, we expected that he would get significantly more delegates than Hillary. That's what advantage means in this case. But more than that, by analyzing the demographics, we can put a number on the advantage and say, if the population as a whole in the country is split evenly between the two candidates, the skewed population in Vermont, because it has a much greater share of Bernie-friendly demographics, will vote for him in such large numbers that he would take 14 of the 16 candidates. If he had gotten less than 14, he would have underperformed, and would have to make up the difference in other states. (As it happened, he got all 16 from Vermont, which means Hillary has to make up two delegates elsewhere.)

Hope that makes sense.

Chichiri

(4,667 posts)
14. I'm not sure what you're asking.
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 05:40 PM
Mar 2016

If you mean who has what advantages where, I've color coded them green and blue. If you want to know how big the advantages are, compare Bernie's target number with half the total for the state.

Response to Chichiri (Original post)

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