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Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:28 PM

Bernie's advantages from here on out

Last edited Wed Mar 2, 2016, 07:02 PM - Edit history (1)

We know that most of the states going forward from here on out give a demographic advantage to Bernie. But what's more: we can quantify that advantage. That is, we can look at the demographics and other factors, and we can see not just whether Hillary or Bernie will win, but how much they will win by.

For example, Hillary had a 4-delegate advantage in Arkansas; that is, if the national vote is tied, we would expect Hillary to take 18 of the 32 delegates from that state, to Bernie's 14. (Hillary actually took 22.)

Another example: Hillary's massive advantage in Texas amounted to an expected 30 delegate lead; she was expected to take 126 delegates, to Bernie's 96. (She actually took 139 or more; the delegate count isn't finished yet.)

In short, while the states thus far have advantaged Hillary more than they have Bernie, that advantage works out to 37 delegates; that is, if the national vote is tied, Hillary should be 37 delegates ahead of Bernie; this is what we would expect from an American population split evenly between Bernie and Hillary.

As of this writing, Hillary is 197 delegates ahead.

In the 35 states and few odd territories to come, Bernie needs to exceed, not Hillary's numbers, but his own target numbers by an average of over 5 delegates each. In those places where he fails to meet that benchmark (and it's actually mathematically impossible for him to do so in a few of the territories), he needs to make up the difference elsewhere.

In fact, there are seven states -- Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Delaware, New Jersey -- and one territory, DC, which are demographically skewed toward Hillary, but that Bernie nevertheless needs to win. Again, if he loses, he needs to make up the difference elsewhere.

Here's a breakdown by state. The first number is the number of delegates in each state, the second is Bernie's target number based on demographics, the third is the number Bernie actually needs to take the nomination, and the fourth is the percentage of the total number of delegates he needs from that state. The blue-shaded states are demographically advantaged for Hillary, the green states for Bernie. The greater the percentage Bernie needs from each state, the deeper the red in the fourth column.






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Arrow 27 replies Author Time Post
Reply Bernie's advantages from here on out (Original post)
Chichiri Mar 2016 OP
NurseJackie Mar 2016 #1
JaneyVee Mar 2016 #2
grossproffit Mar 2016 #3
Jitter65 Mar 2016 #4
MoonRiver Mar 2016 #8
Chichiri Mar 2016 #17
mcar Mar 2016 #5
livetohike Mar 2016 #6
brooklynite Mar 2016 #7
Chichiri Mar 2016 #12
brooklynite Mar 2016 #13
Chichiri Mar 2016 #14
Laser102 Mar 2016 #9
NastyRiffraff Mar 2016 #10
Chichiri Mar 2016 #19
treestar Mar 2016 #11
Name removed Mar 2016 #15
Chichiri Mar 2016 #16
brer cat Mar 2016 #18
UtahLib Mar 2016 #20
Lucinda Mar 2016 #21
KitSileya Mar 2016 #22
FrenchieCat Mar 2016 #23
lunamagica Mar 2016 #24
NEDem Mar 2016 #25
SunSeeker Mar 2016 #26
Gothmog Mar 2016 #27

Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:32 PM

1. It certainly doesn't look very good for him.

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:37 PM

2. In short: outlook bleak for Team Bern.

 

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:41 PM

3. I can't wait for this to be over.

So much nastiness. It's really sad that Clinton supporters couldn't even celebrate her win last night. Actually, it's pathetic.

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Response to grossproffit (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:49 PM

4. "pathetic." I think that is what Bernie referred to the vote outcome in SC. Not good. nt

 

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Response to grossproffit (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:57 PM

8. I celebrated.

Not really, but I felt very good about how she did, And btw everybody wants to WIN, including Bernie.

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Response to grossproffit (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 07:01 PM

17. I celebrated in private.

But not very loudly, because I was disappointed about Minnesota -- although Hillary did come in above target here.

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:53 PM

5. K&R

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:54 PM

6. Bookmarking! Thanks for this.

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:55 PM

7. I'm sorry - could you explain where the advantages are?

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #7)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 05:35 PM

12. Take Vermont, for example.

It's extremely white, extremely liberal, and is Bernie's home state. Because of these factors, we expected that he would get significantly more delegates than Hillary. That's what advantage means in this case. But more than that, by analyzing the demographics, we can put a number on the advantage and say, if the population as a whole in the country is split evenly between the two candidates, the skewed population in Vermont, because it has a much greater share of Bernie-friendly demographics, will vote for him in such large numbers that he would take 14 of the 16 candidates. If he had gotten less than 14, he would have underperformed, and would have to make up the difference in other states. (As it happened, he got all 16 from Vermont, which means Hillary has to make up two delegates elsewhere.)

Hope that makes sense.

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Response to Chichiri (Reply #12)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 05:37 PM

13. I meant "from here on out"

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #13)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 05:40 PM

14. I'm not sure what you're asking.

If you mean who has what advantages where, I've color coded them green and blue. If you want to know how big the advantages are, compare Bernie's target number with half the total for the state.

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 05:01 PM

9. K&R!

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 05:24 PM

10. Hard to argue with numbers

Even Bernie can't make 2+2=5.

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Response to NastyRiffraff (Reply #10)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 09:21 PM

19. It's easy to forget that around here. nt

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 05:27 PM

11. Kick

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)


Response to Name removed (Reply #15)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 06:11 PM

16. On the subject of money, I'll just leave this here . . .

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 07:49 PM

18. K&R

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:26 PM

20. K&R. nt

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 12:58 AM

21. Thankie for the info!

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 01:45 AM

22. K & R eom

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 02:13 AM

23. Great info!

Thanks!

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Fri Mar 4, 2016, 07:42 PM

24. K&R for visibility

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Fri Mar 4, 2016, 08:27 PM

25. K&R

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Fri Mar 4, 2016, 10:26 PM

26. K & R

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Response to Chichiri (Original post)

Fri Mar 4, 2016, 10:57 PM

27. Thanks for posting

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