# 2016 Postmortem

Related: About this forum# Bernie's advantages from here on out

Last edited Wed Mar 2, 2016, 07:02 PM - Edit history (1)

We know that most of the states going forward from here on out give a demographic advantage to Bernie. But what's more: we can *quantify* that advantage. That is, we can look at the demographics and other factors, and we can see not just whether Hillary or Bernie will win, but how much they will win *by.*

For example, Hillary had a 4-delegate advantage in Arkansas; that is, if the national vote is tied, we would expect Hillary to take 18 of the 32 delegates from that state, to Bernie's 14. (Hillary actually took 22.)

Another example: Hillary's massive advantage in Texas amounted to an expected 30 delegate lead; she was expected to take 126 delegates, to Bernie's 96. (She actually took 139 or more; the delegate count isn't finished yet.)

In short, while the states thus far have advantaged Hillary more than they have Bernie, that advantage works out to 37 delegates; that is, if the national vote is tied, Hillary should be 37 delegates ahead of Bernie; this is what we would expect from an American population split evenly between Bernie and Hillary.

As of this writing, Hillary is 197 delegates ahead.

In the 35 states and few odd territories to come, Bernie needs to exceed, not Hillary's numbers, *but his own target numbers* by an average of over 5 delegates each. In those places where he fails to meet that benchmark (and it's actually mathematically impossible for him to do so in a few of the territories), he needs to make up the difference elsewhere.

In fact, there are seven states -- **Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Delaware, New Jersey** -- and one territory, **DC**, which are demographically skewed toward Hillary, *but that Bernie nevertheless needs to win.* Again, if he loses, he needs to make up the difference elsewhere.

Here's a breakdown by state. The first number is the number of delegates in each state, the second is Bernie's target number based on demographics, the third is the number Bernie *actually needs* to take the nomination, and the fourth is the percentage of the total number of delegates he needs from that state. The blue-shaded states are demographically advantaged for Hillary, the green states for Bernie. The greater the percentage Bernie needs from each state, the deeper the red in the fourth column.

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#### NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)#### JaneyVee

(19,877 posts)#### grossproffit

(5,591 posts)So much nastiness. It's really sad that Clinton supporters couldn't even celebrate her win last night. Actually, it's pathetic.

#### Jitter65

(3,089 posts)#### MoonRiver

(36,974 posts)Not really, but I felt very good about how she did, And btw everybody wants to WIN, including Bernie.

#### Chichiri

(4,667 posts)But not very loudly, because I was disappointed about Minnesota -- although Hillary did come in above target here.

#### livetohike

(22,936 posts)#### brooklynite

(96,882 posts)#### Chichiri

(4,667 posts)It's extremely white, extremely liberal, and is Bernie's home state. Because of these factors, we expected that he would get significantly more delegates than Hillary. That's what advantage means in this case. But more than that, by analyzing the demographics, we can put a number on the advantage and say, if the population as a whole in the country is split evenly between the two candidates, the skewed population in Vermont, because it has a much greater share of Bernie-friendly demographics, will vote for him in such large numbers that he would take 14 of the 16 candidates. If he had gotten less than 14, he would have underperformed, and would have to make up the difference in other states. (As it happened, he got all 16 from Vermont, which means Hillary has to make up two delegates elsewhere.)

Hope that makes sense.

#### brooklynite

(96,882 posts)#### Chichiri

(4,667 posts)If you mean who has what advantages where, I've color coded them green and blue. If you want to know how big the advantages are, compare Bernie's target number with half the total for the state.

#### NastyRiffraff

(12,448 posts)Even Bernie can't make 2+2=5.

#### Chichiri

(4,667 posts)#### treestar

(82,383 posts)Response to Chichiri (Original post)

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#### Chichiri

(4,667 posts)#### brer cat

(26,180 posts)#### UtahLib

(3,180 posts)#### Lucinda

(31,170 posts)#### KitSileya

(4,035 posts)#### FrenchieCat

(68,868 posts)Thanks!