Boston Globe: Bernie Sanders loses like a Republican

[Cali_Democrat]

By Evan Horowitz
GLOBE STAFF
MARCH 02, 2016

Tuesday’s Massachusetts Democratic primary revealed something surprising about Bernie Sanders: The self-proclaimed democratic socialist lost like a Republican.

Town-by-town, the map of yesterday’s contest looks like a Sanders blowout, a western sea of Bernie victories with a mid-sized archipelago left for Hillary Clinton. The trouble, for Sanders, is that most voters live on those Clinton-friendly eastern islands.


This “Greater Boston vs. everywhere else” breakdown resembles a general election more than a primary, with Sanders playing the part of a Republican candidate like Scott Brown. Exit polls reinforce the idea, showing that Sanders did well with the right wing of Democratic primary voters, including independents and moderates.

Here’s the town-by-town map, with Sanders’ strongholds in blue and Clinton’s in green. You can see how utterly dominant Sanders was across Central and Western Massachusetts.



Read more:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/03/02/bernie-sanders-loses-like-republican/rBEtRMQZHoBQSGDCf62GnN/story.html

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This is very interesting analysis. Bernie also lost most of the major cities in the South including places like Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas.

Those are areas where Democratic voters are heavily concentrated.

[bravenak]

1. Wow!

That is a stark contrast between area and vote totals.

[Bread and Circus]

32. The flip of this is if Clinton can't win crossover votes in the rural areas how can she be expected

to win?

But that would be above your usual discourse.

[mythology]

40. If Sanders can't win minority votes, how can he win?

It's easy to play this game.

[Bread and Circus]

43. Because black voters vote Democratic en bloc. Also there are 95,000,000 white votes up for grabs

and only 17,000,000 black votes, 14,000,000 Hispanic votes, and 7,000,000 Asian votes.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html

Check the stats from 2012, use their calculator, and see what you think.

It's not a game and it's not one you are likely to win if you ignore the amount of voters there are, where they are, and what they are interested in.

The real question is who can win the swing states and to be honest I haven't done that calculation. But right now, South Carolina, Georgia, and Texas are not swing states.

Think before you post next time.

[anigbrowl]

42. She can be expected to win easily enough

As a majority (81% according to Wikipedia) of Americans live in cities. Obviously this is about as shallow an analysis as you can get, but if you're unfamiliar with the fact that the majority of US citizens live in cities and how this plays out at election time, then you're probably not interested in nuance or detail.

I mean, we go through this regularly. Every election season Republicans point to a county-level map of the results and say 'look, it's almost all red, suck it Democrats,' and Democrats wearily remind the Republicans that land doesn't vote, people do.

[Bread and Circus]

44. The vast majority of voters are white, and she is not doing well with whites.

Here's the evidence the vast majority of voters are white:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html

And it's plain to see that half of Democratic whites don't like her, most white independents don't like her, and Republican whites don't like her.

Use the calculator at that link.... budge the wide vote slightly and watch the electoral changes....

Now budge the other racial groups.... watch how things don't electorally change.

[itsrobert]

2. If Bernie can't win the traditional blue areas, how can he win the General?

[fontagobay]

26. Of Course He Will

http://fontagobay.com/2016/03/01/a-sanderista-revolution/

[GreatGazoo]

28. 2012: Romney 37% Obama 61% 2016: Clinton 50.1% Sanders 48.7% = not the same

And the delegates get split proportionally unlike a GOP vs DEM race. That blows their bogus frame.

The western part of the state went heavily for Obama in 2012 and for Sanders yesterday.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Massachusetts,_2012

[auntpurl]

3. Assuming it's diversity?

The more diverse the area, the better Hillary does.

It's something I'm quite proud of, that I support the candidate who is pulling in the most richly diverse Democratic electorate.

[fontagobay]

24. OR

the wealthier areas like Boston's suburbs... And before we get started talking about Cape Cod, Nantucket, and the Vineyard lets remember that the people who live and vote in those areas are largely not the wealthy people who play there over the summer.

[auntpurl]

25. I think we can agree that Hillary's supporters in vast majorities

Are not part of the 1%.

[fontagobay]

36. Obviously...

But likely part of the 45%

[KingFlorez]

4. His best areas are consistently the most Republican areas

Clinton wins where the most Democrats are.

[auntpurl]

5. Could it be because he wasn't a Democrat until recently?

Not sniping at all, sincere question.

I know it's one of the things that gives me pause, and certainly didn't help when I was considering who to support. I've basically been a Democrat since I was born, lol. I've voted for the Democrat in every election since I turned 18.

[KingFlorez]

6. Probably

Outside of New Hampshire, Clinton has carried voters to identify as Democrats. It's really hard for someone who switched to a party just to run in a primary to win over self-identified members of said party.

[auntpurl]

7. He's also distanced himself from Obama

Dems love Obama. That may not have been a winning strategy.

[Larkspur]

12. Thi Democrat has never loved Obama

I was never inspired by his speeches.

I was an Anyone but Hillary voter in 2008 and he got my vote mainly because he was the main leading rival to her in 2008.

Was disappointed but not surprised that he governed like Bill Clinton ver 2.0.

[auntpurl]

13. I was a fan of Bill Clinton as president

And I am a fan of Obama (now. In 2008 I supported Hillary).

Of course, I'm a moderate. That's probably why.

[blackspade]

14. no he hasn't.

Clinton has attempted to drive that wedge though.

[vdogg]

18. Bernie has only recently tried to snuggle up to Obama

Bernie himself said he was one of Obama's toughest critics and he wanted to primary him in 2012. Bernie drove that wedge himself, Clinton didn't need to do a thing.

[blackspade]

23. Being a critic is one thing.

Slandering Obama is Clinton's deal.
Now Clinton is trying to use Obama's coat tails to attach herself to his policies and legacy.

[earthside]

17. Not in Colorado.

Mrs. Clinton lost like a Republican in Colorado yesterday.

Actually, she didn't even do that well.
In Colorado, a swing state, Sanders wins where the most Democrats are.

Sanders wins almost everywhere

[URL=.html][IMG][/IMG][/URL]

[KingFlorez]

20. That was a caucus

Caucuses can produce different results than primaries. In regular primaries, Sanders has a pattern of only winning where Republicans do best.

[earthside]

31. Which is even more troubling for Clinton.

These are the most committed activists ... and they don't like Hillary.

Mrs. Clinton will not win a general election in Colorado.

Just ask former Sen. Udall how it turns out in Colorado when you ignore and disrespect the liberal/progressive base here.

[KingFlorez]

34. Polling says otherwise

http://onsightpublicaffairs.com/admin/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/KR-ONSIGHT-3-2-2016-XTABS.pdf

Clinton 49%
Trump 39%

[earthside]

35. Polling and pundits also said that ...

... Mrs. Clinton would win here yesterday (although it was very clear that momentum was all in Sander's direction -- we like real progressives here, not the fake kind who take money from Walmart and attend fundraisers hosted by an NRA lobbyist).

Clinton got clobbered -- 59 percent to 40 percent.

http://www.inquisitr.com/2844092/latest-democrat-super-tuesday-polls-2016-primary-caucus-exit-numbers-may-spell-bye-bye-bernie/

[JPnoodleman]

8. Perhaps we should rejoice that Conservative folk are embracing a Democratic Socialist? n/t

[greymouse]

9. the states where Bernie won

are the ones by and large that go Democratic in the general. Mass is the exception. Hillary won the states that go red in the general. So, repeat after me, if Hillary is the nominee, Trump wins the general.

[JaneyVee]

11. LOL. Massachusetts, Virginia, + many more to come.

By your logic, Oklahoma doesnt count.

[KingFlorez]

15. It's basic political science not to compare primaries to general elections

Take a political science course, do some studying and then try again.

[vdogg]

19. Virginia and Mass both went blue the last 2 elections.

Where are you getting this from?

[JaneyVee]

10. Most of that blue is unpopulated farmland.

Hillary wins the people.

[jfern]

16. Lamest attack ever

Primaries aren't general elections. And in the 2012 general election, Berkshire county was Obama's best county. Bernie did quite well there.

[NCTraveler]

21. I was horrified when I read the headline. Lol

Very good analysis and worthy of a look.

[XRubicon]

22. I grew up on the north shore, this map is telling of who Bernie isn't connecting with.

[mcar]

27. Very interesting!

[mhatrw]

29. It's a lot harder to commit fraud where the votes are hand counted.

And you get a lot more bang for your fraud buck in highly populated areas.

[XRubicon]

30. It couldn't be Bernie... no, it's clearly fraud.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

33. Hi, Karl Rove

Were they handing cigs out to homeless people for votes too?

What a disgusting, and quite frankly, borderline racist claim. This is shit Rove, Rince Penis, and others have alleged against our party in general elections for years. You should be ashamed.

[Trust Buster]

37. What that map shows is that Bernie did poorly with minorities.

Bad news for Bernie.

[Depaysement]

38. Maybe you should stick to California

He won many dem areas: the university towns in Western Mass, Brockton, etc.

[intheflow]

39. The problem with this analysis is it assumes independent voters in Mass are conservative.

This is wrong. Some of the most liberal places in Massachusetts are in the Western part of the state: the five college towns of Northampton, Amherst, and South Hadley all went to Bernie, for instance. The artist communities in the Berkshires mostly went Bernie. The places that didn't go Bernie? The richest parts of the state. So don't tell me we're all Republicans west of Weston. The Republicans who make this part of the state conservative didn't vote in the Democratic primary. The poor artists and students and teachers and professors did. And we voted for Bernie.

[DCBob]

41. I was thinking the same thing.

He wins the white male vote and losing almost everything else... just like a Republican versus a Democrat.

Texas is a good example..

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/01/us/elections/texas-democrat-poll.html?_r=0