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Thu Mar 3, 2016, 12:24 AM

White Lives Electorally Matter!!!

I think people need to understand that, electorally, this is still a country that is dominated by White voters (much to my chagrin, because they tend to vote Republican). But with all the talk lately about the Black vote in South Carolina and elsewhere we have lost sight there is a bigger prize here and that is the White House and the path to it goes right through lily white picket fences, across farm fields, and down the street to suburban cul-de-sac(s).

Before you say "but the Democratic base is Black" please understand that even the Democratic Party was comprised of more white votes than any other single demographic in 2012 (this was Obama's re-election year, mind you). The good thing is, all those progressive White supremacist hippy dairy farmers from Vermont were able to pull off their white sheets and douse their burning crosses to vote for Obama just in the nick of time!!!

Look at 2012's electoral demographics at this link. Go ahead. I double dare you.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html

What you will find is that in 2012 there were 79,000,000 white votes up for grabs. Aside that, there were 17,000,000 Black, 15,000,000 Hispanic, and 7,000,000 Asian votes. Altogether, the PoC vote did not equal the white vote and probably won't for a decade or two, maybe more (anyone have the projection on that?).

And what do we know about Clinton if we are honest with ourselves? Say it, class....she seems to have a White problem.

Nearly half of White Democratic voters in the Democratic Party don't really like her enough to vote for her (i.e. the folks that nominated Obama and the folks now supporting Sanders) and it seems most Independent Whites don't either. Then there's the Republican White vote...which I think is safe to say they really don't like her. In other words, "White voters just really aren't all that into you, Hillary".

The other thing is, a lot of White voters are pissed off these days. Call it White Privilege if you want but a lot of people have seen a decline or stagnation in their prosperity over the past few decades. Yes, it is mostly due to right wing policy (started by Reagan) but it has been aided and abetted by the Democratic Party as well (consider that we have had a Democratic President for 16 of the past 24 years as food for thought).

Outside of this stagnation, there is a real decline in life expectancy for Whites as of late. This is actually a shocking statistic. When you look at the reasons why, some of it can be linked back to declining prosperity and muted hope (alcoholism is part of that statistic). Some may say, "welcome to our neighborhood" which probably has some karmic poetry to it, but I don't think "a sinking tide lowering all boats" is a good political or societal goal.

The leaf has turned within the Republican Party and it is a seismic event that Trump is leading that race. We can sit back and laugh (or cry) but it is a symptom of something that is deep and cannot be laughed off. I seriously doubt we are 1930's Germany but it is scary when a guy rises to power using racial minorities as scapegoats and political punching bags.

The leaf is at least fluttering near sideways in the Democratic Party. The powers that be may vanquish the Sanders insurgency after all, but did anyone really predict "Mr. 3% Socialist Shouty Fringe Candidate" was going to give the Clintons a run for their money? If things get worse or at the very least fail to get better, continuing "Obama's Legacy" won't be good enough next time.

So, if what I say above has a grain of truth to it, be braced for a few things. Number one, believe it or not, Trump might win. Go to that website I linked and play with their electoral calculator. Adjust the numbers for the white vote a bit. It won't take much in terms of percentage change or turnout change to turn the electoral college Republican Red. The same cannot be said for the Black, Hispanic, or Asian subgroups. Number two, there is a very strong anti-establishment mood among working class / middle class whites. That latter point should go without saying but I literally had a Clinton supporter here say to me that she was not aware of this anti-Establishment vein. I was gobsmacked to say the least. Given that Clinton really is "the machine" and Trump is not, this is not a good thing for Democrats. The third thing is the Republicans are out of power, they are like Rocky after he gets beat in the first half of the movie: they are hungry, working out in the sweaty gym with bare walls, and chasing chickens to get back into power (just look at the last 2 midterms as an example of that). In other words, we may see a huge turnout of Republicans. If you think they are gonna sit on their hands because Trump is nasty, I seriously doubt it. Do you honestly believe they will fall on their sword for the good of the country when the Supreme Court is on the line?

But the above paragraph does not mean "pivot to the right" or "go to the center" or "act like Republicans to win"

Repeat....

The above paragraph does not mean "pivot to the right" or "go to the center" or "act like Republicans to win"

What it does mean though, is the value of understanding what the white electorate is so damn pissed off about. Many feel betrayed and abandoned by our institutions on the "Left" (I put that in quotes because our Democratic heads barely act "Left" when money, guns, and blood is on the line) and on the Right.

The reason they feel betrayed it is because they have been. Their prosperity was outsourced to the lowest bidder.

My older siblings can fondly remember when a high school education and blue collar job could get you a good lifestyle (i.e. before the Reagan Revolution). Now it is not uncommon to have college grads who can't afford to not go back and live with their parents. And those are the young adults that were lucky enough to be able to get a college education. The ones who couldn't are struggling going from one poor paying job to another.

My solution is to STOP BETRAYING THEM. Why this is so hard to do, I don't know, but I think campaign contributions have something to do with it. I wouldn't be surprised if large sums of money exchanged for "giving speeches" may also have something to do with it as well. Just a hunch.

My point of this post is not to denigrate or diminish the electoral value of the African Americans, Latinos, Asians or anyone else. I congratulate Hillary Clinton on winning and keeping the affection of the majority of people of color and especially of blacks. I am sure in some ways she has earned it, despite her obvious periods of time when she chose political expediency over what was right at the time. I am also certain the the Democratic Party would not be what it is today without those votes and their interests.

However, I think in our hubris of dissecting the path to the nomination we have lost sight of some current electoral realities which can result in some pretty serious ill effects if we are not careful. If the triumphant tone of those who may likely be on the "winning side" of the nomination think they can thumb their noses at "white states that don't matter" and act as if the Black Vote + Latino Vote alone can carry this party to victory in November then they are sadly mistaken. Math matters.

On the other hand, I guess Hillary Clinton can be thankful for low gas prices right now or all hell might have broke out (even more than it has) on the Left as well.

111 replies, 5479 views

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Arrow 111 replies Author Time Post
Reply White Lives Electorally Matter!!! (Original post)
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 OP
Agschmid Mar 2016 #1
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #3
RobertEarl Mar 2016 #10
bravenak Mar 2016 #4
Luminous Animal Mar 2016 #14
Agschmid Mar 2016 #42
William769 Mar 2016 #15
Starry Messenger Mar 2016 #25
bigtree Mar 2016 #41
amborin Mar 2016 #2
JaneyVee Mar 2016 #20
TheFarS1de Mar 2016 #5
Purveyor Mar 2016 #7
Dem2 Mar 2016 #8
Betty Karlson Mar 2016 #32
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #54
Kittycat Mar 2016 #85
ismnotwasm Mar 2016 #6
Luminous Animal Mar 2016 #12
ismnotwasm Mar 2016 #13
Luminous Animal Mar 2016 #17
ismnotwasm Mar 2016 #18
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #21
ismnotwasm Mar 2016 #26
JustAnotherGen Mar 2016 #40
monicaangela Mar 2016 #56
JustAnotherGen Mar 2016 #64
ALBliberal Mar 2016 #9
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #53
Bluenorthwest Mar 2016 #103
ALBliberal Mar 2016 #104
JTFrog Mar 2016 #11
YCHDT Mar 2016 #37
wildeyed Mar 2016 #59
PotatoChip Mar 2016 #80
wildeyed Mar 2016 #92
Uncle Joe Mar 2016 #16
JaneyVee Mar 2016 #19
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #22
Dem2 Mar 2016 #24
Gwhittey Mar 2016 #23
davidn3600 Mar 2016 #27
joshcryer Mar 2016 #35
davidn3600 Mar 2016 #43
joshcryer Mar 2016 #46
Gwhittey Mar 2016 #70
Perogie Mar 2016 #63
joshcryer Mar 2016 #66
Herman4747 Mar 2016 #97
Name removed Mar 2016 #39
MaggieD Mar 2016 #28
JTFrog Mar 2016 #29
betsuni Mar 2016 #36
mcar Mar 2016 #71
thucythucy Mar 2016 #102
Perogie Mar 2016 #30
joshcryer Mar 2016 #34
Perogie Mar 2016 #60
joshcryer Mar 2016 #65
Perogie Mar 2016 #79
Waiting For Everyman Mar 2016 #31
joshcryer Mar 2016 #33
YCHDT Mar 2016 #38
Adrahil Mar 2016 #45
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #52
Adrahil Mar 2016 #55
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #77
YCHDT Mar 2016 #109
yardwork Mar 2016 #44
noamnety Mar 2016 #47
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #50
noamnety Mar 2016 #51
PonyUp Mar 2016 #72
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #84
yardwork Mar 2016 #86
noamnety Mar 2016 #88
yardwork Mar 2016 #89
Cobalt Violet Mar 2016 #110
wildeyed Mar 2016 #94
NCTraveler Mar 2016 #62
Adrahil Mar 2016 #48
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #49
EndElectoral Mar 2016 #69
noamnety Mar 2016 #57
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #76
noamnety Mar 2016 #81
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #82
noamnety Mar 2016 #87
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #90
JustAnotherGen Mar 2016 #107
Kittycat Mar 2016 #91
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #93
Kittycat Mar 2016 #96
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #98
Kittycat Mar 2016 #100
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #101
JTFrog Mar 2016 #105
wildeyed Mar 2016 #58
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #74
wildeyed Mar 2016 #95
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #99
NCTraveler Mar 2016 #61
Jester Messiah Mar 2016 #67
Pisces Mar 2016 #68
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #73
wildeyed Mar 2016 #106
grossproffit Mar 2016 #75
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #83
AgerolanAmerican Mar 2016 #78
Recursion Mar 2016 #108
Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #111

Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 12:28 AM

1. ...

Good lord.

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Response to Agschmid (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 12:33 AM

3. I know, right!?!

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Response to Bread and Circus (Reply #3)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 01:01 AM

10. That was something good

 

That's all I can say at this time, as I have decided to step back from the circular firing squad. Glad you made it past the alert. <grin>

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Response to Agschmid (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 12:37 AM

4. +1

 

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Response to Agschmid (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 01:08 AM

14. You did not read it. There is plenty of nostalgia for the old DU and some of it fantasy

but a lot of it true. Many members of the old DU would have actually read the OP and would have taken the time to respond to the OPs position.

The new DU on the other hand….

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Response to Luminous Animal (Reply #14)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 07:21 AM

42. I did read it, and I've been here for 8 years.

So I am the old DU.

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Response to Agschmid (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 01:08 AM

15. Perfect response.

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Response to Agschmid (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 02:12 AM

25. Right?

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Response to Agschmid (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:26 AM

41. lol

...nuff said

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 12:32 AM

2. Bernie won the Latino vote hugely in Colorado; he won 41% non-white vote in Mass

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Response to amborin (Reply #2)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 01:19 AM

20. Caucuses arent broken down by race.

 

You have a link?

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 12:42 AM

5. Results of Jury

On Wed Mar 2, 2016, 08:30 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

White Lives Electorally Matter!!!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511400972

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

Oh Jesus f@ck the right off with this mockery of Black Lives Matter.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Wed Mar 2, 2016, 08:40 PM, and the Jury voted 0-7 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Just based on the tone of the alert this deserves to stay . The entire piece is opinion with nothing remotely resembling the claim made , it is one persons opinion and I will be damned if I am going to start silencing people for having a viewpoint .
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: You put a lot of thought and effort into this. I'd rather have the argument.
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: A discussion forum is meant to be a place to have discussions. There is nothing inherently wrong with the OP.
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given

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Response to TheFarS1de (Reply #5)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 12:46 AM

7. Uh oh. Somebody isn't going to be alerting for 24hrs. 0-7 vote...

 

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Response to TheFarS1de (Reply #5)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 12:48 AM

8. Poor jurors had to read a rather lengthy post

Makes me chuckle.

I think the piece is thought-provoking and not controversial like the title is.

Clearly the alerter alerted on the title alone.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #8)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 03:14 AM

32. The title certainly spells more trouible than the insightful argument. eom

 

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Response to TheFarS1de (Reply #5)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:47 AM

54. 7-0 Leave it alone. I appreciate that. Thank you.

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Response to TheFarS1de (Reply #5)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 11:49 AM

85. I really wish we could avoid inflammatory titles

It does nothing for discourse, and only takes away from thoughtful discussion. too many OPs worth discussion on both sides have gone down in flames and added annimocity for this very reason.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 12:46 AM

6. WTF?

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Response to ismnotwasm (Reply #6)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 01:02 AM

12. I almost hid it for the title and then I read each and every word.

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Response to Luminous Animal (Reply #12)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 01:06 AM

13. Yeah what do you suppose was happening in AA communities

During that magical time of white blue color worker jobs? He's talking 60's and 70's now.

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Response to ismnotwasm (Reply #13)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 01:15 AM

17. Scouring the OP for a "magical time" and not finding it.

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Response to Luminous Animal (Reply #17)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 01:16 AM

18. Ok

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Response to ismnotwasm (Reply #13)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 01:26 AM

21. A lot of African Americans did very well with blue collar jobs.

Thats why there was a huge black migration North and why Detroit is 80% Black.

It used to be a very properous city with great jobs.

History matters.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Reply #21)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 02:16 AM

26. That's why huh.

Well well. History certainly does matter.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Reply #21)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:43 AM

40. The Warmth Of Other Suns

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B003EY7JGM/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?ie=UTF8&btkr=1

The tail end - the very tail - were educated (collegiate level) blacks in the late 60's and 70's who could have given two shits about a Union Job. They were the "shit just got real" moment for those Northern Cities. They are the people (including my family) who had money to overcome the Red Line and invade comfy cozy white suburbs.

You need to read the book - then come back to this point.

Some things to consider -

The start point was 1915. With so many white men at war and restrictions on immigration the labor was needed in industrial cities.

Look to Red Summer - 1919. Competition for housing and jobs and blacks being used as strike breakers added to that. I don't blame those black men - they had to get ahead - and unions tended to shut them out. That went on until the I Am A Man campaign in 1968. They did the right thing for their families. Makes you wonder if white blue collar workers did not benefit the most from mass incarceration - less competition - right?


Anyways - aside from a need for labor by white industrialists - that they could get cheaper than white men (still goes on today - white men make more) the book will also inform you on the economic restrictions and social limitations on black people (we wouldn't be real Americans until 1964/65) in the South. Examples: Inability to votes, inequality in education, oppressive whites only laws, black professions (agriculture, porters, home care, home cleaners) being locked out of Social Security. If you worked in a factory you got it. If you sharecropped or worked as a maid - you paid taxes but didn't get the benefit down the road.

You should check out the book. Stay awoke!

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Response to JustAnotherGen (Reply #40)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 09:19 AM

56. I see you got the message.

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Response to monicaangela (Reply #56)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 09:59 AM

64. I beg your pardon?

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 12:52 AM

9. This post is fascinating. Thank.you. In some way it clears up the puzzle of why

OK went for Sanders. Disaffected white voters angry at the establishment. Would you agree that could be a reason?

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Response to ALBliberal (Reply #9)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:47 AM

53. I have not studied what happened in Oklahoma but I think the sense of betrayal

People feel by the Democratic establishment has fueled a large part of Sanders' rise every where.

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Response to ALBliberal (Reply #9)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 03:53 PM

103. OK many misread. OK is 75.1% White, the US 77.4% White...

 

While OK has just 7.7% African Americans compared to a national 13.2, they also have 9% Native American population compared to the national 1.2%. OK has 9.8% Latino, 2% Asian. 24.9% non white.
South Carolina has far more African Americans, 20% more, but less Native People, less Latinos, fewer Asians and far fewer persons who identify as more than one race-5.9% in OK, 1.7% in South Carolina.
For 'white alone' it's SC: 64.1% OK 68.7% and that's not much of a difference.


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Response to Bluenorthwest (Reply #103)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 03:55 PM

104. I would guess Bernie won the Native American vote

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 01:02 AM

11. *sigh*

 




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Response to JTFrog (Reply #11)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 04:43 AM

37. +1

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Response to JTFrog (Reply #11)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 09:45 AM

59. :facepalm:

[URL=.html][IMG][/IMG][/URL]

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Response to wildeyed (Reply #59)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 11:19 AM

80. That gif is very disturbing.

Ugh.

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Response to PotatoChip (Reply #80)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 12:55 PM

92. So is the OP.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 01:13 AM

16. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, Bread and Circus.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 01:17 AM

19. So let me guess: nominate Bernie to appeal more to white voters?

 

That is literally everything thats wrong with the conversation about race in America. White people need to listen to and care about minorities concerns, not the other way around.

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #19)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 01:27 AM

22. My point of making this post is mainly to remind people of stark reality.

What conclusions you want to draw from that reality is up to you.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Reply #22)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 02:02 AM

24. stark reality

Well, it is and it isn't. It's definitely worth considering, but let not forget that

states like ME, NH & VT are > 94% white and voted for Obama 2X each.

States in the South that vote massively against Democrats offset the averages quite a bit. Adjusting the generic white vote nationwide may or may not be a legitimate predictor of electoral college outcomes.



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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #19)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 01:56 AM

23. You are right.

 

Do you feel a candidate them selves saying they appeal more to white voters be a negative against a candidate?

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #19)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 02:21 AM

27. But that's not really how it works, is it?

 

The polls have been showing for a while that the Democrats are losing white, male voters. And it's not rich, white male voters. It's working class white male voters. These are whites who live paycheck to paycheck and put in a hard days work every day. They are not racist. Most of them voted for Obama in 2008. But now they a Democratic party that is increasingly vilifying them and completely ignoring their issues and concerns.

Those whites are leaving the party. And that could be a problem for Democrats in the northern, industrial states, especially Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, etc. If Hillary struggles in these states....we got a problem. There is already concern that union workers may actually be more attracted to Trump as he will likely go to a very populist message towards the middle class in the general election.

Seriously...if you are an average white male worker in this country worried about the economy and losing his job someday....how do you relate to Hillary Clinton?

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Response to davidn3600 (Reply #27)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 04:10 AM

35. Romney got the largest share of whites in modern history.

Yet he still lost.

Why?

Because American demographics aren't like the 80s anymore.

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #35)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 07:37 AM

43. You didnt answer the question

 

If you are an average white male worker in this country, working paycheck to paycheck, worried about the economy and losing his job someday....how do you relate to Hillary Clinton?

Don't make the mistake of assuming that all of Obama's voters will automatically go to Hillary now, or go to her with the same enthusiasm. Politics doesn't work that way. Obama was very likable, even among white, working class voters in the north. His support held firm in the northern, industrial swing states in 2012. The increase in whites voting for Romney happened mainly in the south.

Hillary on the other hand is a highly disliked candidate whose negatives are as high as Trump. Remember, Democrats have had their asses kicked every election that Obama isn't on the ballot.

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Response to davidn3600 (Reply #43)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:16 AM

46. Billionaire openly using the system...

...vs multi-millionaire who made the lions share of their money doing paid speeches and selling books?

I can see it now.

Trump: "I am against all those Chinese people taking our jobs!"

Clinton: "Yet you were a huge proponent of outsourcing jobs. Your whole line of suits are made in Mexico."

Trump: "I used the system and everything my companies did were legal!"

Clinton: "Your companies lobbied to make the unethical stuff your companies did legal."

Trump's populism is fake, completely made up crap. Please, oh please, let him get the nomination. He will be eviscerated. The working people of America, the white working people of America since they're the subject here, will see right through it.

Oh. And let's have a really big talk about tariffs that Trump supports. Let the American people hear about how much that will hike prices for cheap goods. Never underestimate the will of the American consumer.

Trump: "I will put tariffs on Chinese made goods! I'll force their hand!"

Hillary: "Well, I, for one, would not like to see America look like Europe with VAT and extremely high import fees. The problem is companies like your own, who use tax loopholes and lobby the government to cheat the system."

And, yeah, for all the bluster, odds are they'll release a chunk of the speech transcripts (at least all of the ones for the banks). There's nothing there. There's a reason they kept transcripts. The Clinton's are the most highly scrutinized people in politics in history.

What you're not accepting is that the requirement for the white vote share for Republicans grows every cycle. They need 64% of the white vote and 30% of the non-white vote this time around. It's nearly insurmountable, particularly if women shift their vote for personal reasons (and yes, I am of the opinion that people can have whatever reason they want to vote for someone and if a woman votes for Clinton because she's a woman, that is not a terrible and horrible thing; I don't see the problem).

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #46)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 10:16 AM

70. You are kind right

 

but off in how Trump is going to attack her. See Trump was one billionaires giving Hillary money to do his bidding. She did not make her money because she gave sound advice on investing when she made over 9 million off speeches to Wall Street. Trump makes more off speeches than that and he was not a person trying to run for office until now. See Trump is going to change his message in GE, kinda how Hillary is doing now that she thinks she has it in bag. For pete's sake she is hosting a fundraiser that is being co-hosted by a NRA lobbyist this week. Why because she is going to try and use them to get elected and soft her I am strong on gun control she has been harping at Bernie about. Now do you want a candidate who is pandering to others just to get a vote? I mean how do you not know she is pandering to you on same issues that you like.

Remember the old saying "Fool me once shame on me, Fool me twice shame on you"

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #35)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 09:57 AM

63. It's not just about winning President.

Romney lost but Republicans control Congress and most states Legislation. Real change in this country won't happen until the Dems control congress and more states.

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Response to Perogie (Reply #63)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 10:05 AM

66. That is without question.

But you'll note those whites want John Bel Edwards types, which the OP dismisses. Southern whites want pro gun anti abortion candidates. It's sucky.

But the OP is about the presidency.

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #35)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 02:18 PM

97. What proves your allegation about Romney?

 

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #19)


Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 02:39 AM

28. OMG

 

I can't even believe some of the stuff that gets posted here. We need a face palm icon.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #28)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 02:41 AM

29. Indeed!

 

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Response to JTFrog (Reply #29)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 04:21 AM

36. This and your other gif in this thread are simply marvelous!

Perfect.

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Response to JTFrog (Reply #29)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 10:33 AM

71. The perfect gif for this OP!

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Response to JTFrog (Reply #29)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 03:34 PM

102. The gif that keeps on giving. Nt.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 02:53 AM

30. Valid points

The link is enlightening.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html

The Democratic Party is only getting 40% of the white votes. They can't win elections since the other races are close to being tapped out. African Americans votes 93% for Dems. Latinos are 72%. They have to get the white votes back to change the political landscape of state assemblies and more importantly change congress back to Democratic control. That's when we will see real progressive change in this country. The ACA is being f'ked up because the Red states are not participating so it's not working because the cost isn't being spread among all the people. Draconian laws limiting abortion are being passed in Red states.

A 10 point swing in white votes is possible and would change the political landscape a lot.

If all POC voted 100% for Democrats it doesn't change the the map as much as getting 10% of whites to come over to the Democratic party.


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Response to Perogie (Reply #30)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 04:05 AM

34. White uneducated shift to Dems 3% every four years.

White educated grows by 1% (which vote Dem) every four years.

The Dems are already earning the white vote.

Maybe it's not good enough for some.

But it's damn sure good enough to keep a racist bigot like Trump out of the White House.

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #34)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 09:45 AM

60. May I ask where you got those figures?

I don't seem to be able to find anything that supports it, but would like to have all the information available.

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #65)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 11:19 AM

79. Thanks

Great info, but it doesn't say well educated whites that vote for democrats increases 1%

"In contrast, white degree-holders — who still lean Republican but are much likelier to support Democrats than whites without a degree — rise a percentage point every four years."

Following the links takes you to an Electoral map showing 59% of well educated whites vote Republican.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/#Latino:0.297%7C0.47,Black:0.087%7C0.662,CEW:0.592%7C0.772,NCEW:0.647%7C0.567,A/O:0.337%7C0.491

Well educated whites are more likely to vote Democratic that under educated whites, but they still mostly vote Republican.

They are the new swing vote.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 02:56 AM

31. K&R Lots of facts that are being missed by many.

I recomment reading the whole thing.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 03:59 AM

33. So the core of the party cannot carry the party?

Give me a break.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 04:56 AM

38. One of Sanders big tactical mistakes was to focus on issues of economic insecurity and expect

the ALREADY economically insecure to be as alarmed as those who are not.

The other was to expect to go campaign against one of the most popular dem presidents inside the DNC since JKF and FDR, that happened to be endeared by black and Hispanic voters, and win their votes.

3rd was to spend too much of his introduction in parts of the country where his message was already heard with people who didn't like the aforementioned too.

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Response to YCHDT (Reply #38)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:14 AM

45. The problem is that Bernie comes off as...

 

Saying that black peoples' problems can be solved in same way as poor white people. He might not actually believe that, but the fact that he turns every conversation that direction is a problem for him. Black people have unique problems and they need to be addrssed specifically.

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Response to Adrahil (Reply #45)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:44 AM

52. Your point is important and has often been made here on DU as if late.

My original post here was to cast a light on something we have been ignoring here in DU.

Even though your post is a bit of a derail to this thread I am curious as to what quotes exactly has Bernie Sanders made that makes people feel the way you depict?

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Response to Bread and Circus (Reply #52)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 09:05 AM

55. It happens in almost every speech I hear.

 

And it is subtle. I heard him addressing a black church (I think in SC?) and he gave a good speech. BUT, after a preamble about his passion for civil rights, and I believe he really does feel that passion, he pivoted right back into his standard stump speech about income inequality and needing to fight millionahs and billionahs. It's a good speech, but you could practically SEE the audience slip away from him. He should have kept that speech focused on black issues. My wife (who is a Bernie supporter, by the way) said this when I talked to her about it: "Of course he did that. He is a base and superstructure thinker.... he believes racism is a product of class oppression." My wife uses Marx in a lot of her academic work. So I do think Bernie can solve most racial inequalities through wealth redistribution. And he's not completely wrong, but I think he overlooks that even that redistribution would be tainted with racism, and that many working class whites have internalized racism.

I was glad to hear him say in a speech recently that he would focus investments in traditionally disadvantaged communities, but a black friend of mine reacted to that: "Why didn't he say black and other traditionally disadvantaged communities? Dude has a hard time focusing on black issues, even when talking to a black audience." (I think that was a speech are Morehouse, maybe... I dunno, I keep cable news on in the background while I work.)

Well there ya go. I don't wanna completely derail you thread, so I won't further reply unless you want me too.

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Response to Adrahil (Reply #55)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 11:09 AM

77. I love your post. Well thought out. Insightful. Thanks.

I agree that Sanders can seem like a broken record. I don't fault anyone for feeling that way.

It is not just a dismissal of Black issues though . There's a lot he doesn't talk about or focus on.


Again, thanks for you post.

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Response to Adrahil (Reply #45)

Fri Mar 4, 2016, 07:12 AM

109. This too

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:02 AM

44. Nobody says they don't. /nt

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:26 AM

47. This post does not represent all Bernie voters.

 

I know it will be used as The Representative Post, but in the way that Albright doesn't speak for All Women - the same is true here.

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Response to noamnety (Reply #47)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:40 AM

50. I agree. It doesn't and shouldn't. It is just one opinion.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Reply #50)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:43 AM

51. What is more interesting to me

 

Is that people who are in retirement or almost there are supporting Hillary, and people who still have to depend on finding decent jobs are supporting Bernie.

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Response to noamnety (Reply #51)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 10:36 AM

72. They got theirs. n/t

 

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Response to noamnety (Reply #51)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 11:44 AM

84. Very astute point.

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Response to noamnety (Reply #51)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 11:53 AM

86. I'm a white person nowhere close to retirement and I support Hillary.

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Response to yardwork (Reply #86)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 12:09 PM

88. Yep - and I am nearing retirement and support Bernie.

 

We are both outliers in terms of statistics.

Neither candidate has a lock on 100% of any demographic. Anecdotes about exceptions don't change the big picture.

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Response to noamnety (Reply #88)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 12:10 PM

89. I've seen no evidence that I'm any kind of outlier.

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Response to noamnety (Reply #88)

Fri Mar 4, 2016, 09:04 AM

110. Me too!

I also run a tiny business and would be exponentially better off if the average Joe and Jane had more spending power.

Go Bernie!

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Response to yardwork (Reply #86)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 01:00 PM

94. Me too.

She has a better (or only) small business plan and I own one of those. I employ dozens of millennials too, full time and benes. When I make money I hire and promote even more.

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Response to noamnety (Reply #47)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 09:52 AM

62. +1 nt

 

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:32 AM

48. White voters, as a percentage of the electorate, has declined, and will continue to decline.

 


I don't think anyone thinks we can win the general based on the votes of POC alone, but we sure can't win without their enthusiastic support!

To be honest, I can't discern what this post is actually about. I don't think supports any policies that alienate white voters, except maybe the fact that POC seem to like her?

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Response to Adrahil (Reply #48)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:39 AM

49. I think your last sentence is missing a word.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Reply #49)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 10:16 AM

69. Tough subject, but needed to be said. Disagree that Trump is the nominee though. Here's why...

Every vote for Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, etc is going to be compounded at the convention into one approved GOP candidate.

For example if the GOP wants Rubio to win - every Kasich, Cruz vote will go to Rubio at the convention. The GOP establishment does NOT want Trump to win the nomination anymore than the DNC wants Sanders to win the nomination.

The convention is about getting a candidate that meets the party approval. Unless Trump is able to get over 50% of all GOP delegates he will not get the nominations.

My guess the GOP approved candidate is Rubio. Cruz will be deemed too polarizing.

So we'll have a HCR-Rubio race or if the DNC allows a Sanders-Rubio race.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 09:26 AM

57. I'm hoping you get a chance to read Adrahil's thread

 

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511402352

The only other thing I'd add to that is that regardless of whatever arguments you are making about blue states and red states and demographics, it's most definitely never appropriate to be co-opting a slogan like Black Lives Matter to talk about the importance of the majority white people. I know I'm not saying that strongly enough - but please take a minute to contemplate why that is.

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Response to noamnety (Reply #57)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 11:04 AM

76. The problem I have with Adrahil's post is that he or she implies

..we white progressives who suppprt Sanders are furthering systemic racism which is apparently not ok but there is one candidate here, Clinton, who has repeatedly said racist things and promoted racist policies, but gets a hall pass for it again and again.

Until people own up to this it is a nonstarter with me.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Reply #76)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 11:31 AM

81. Regardless of that

 

What you've done in your post is take the Black Lives Matter cause, which is about the basic right of black people to even EXIST in this country without being murdered in cold blood by government officials without repercussions, and you're riding on their backs and repurposing their message to make it about white people being marginalized.

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Response to noamnety (Reply #81)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 11:42 AM

82. No, that's not what I am doing. My title is to get attention of something we have been ignoring.

It is a play on words but it doesn't diminish the importance of justice for African Americans.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Reply #82)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 11:59 AM

87. Can't tell you how strongly I disagree.

 

"My title is to get attention of something we have been ignoring."

Your title is using black people's struggle for the right to exist to get attention of something that matters to you, the belief that white people's votes are being ignored.

You see it as a harmless play on words, but I think a whole lot of people will see it very differently. It is entirely dismissive of their struggle to say, yeah, sure that's important and all, but how can I use it in a clever fun way now to draw attention to my issue?

When I see that, I shut down - in the same way I would shut down if Bill Clinton tried to become a spokesman for a law protecting women from sexual harassment in the work place. The law could be the best law ever, but I'm not listening to a word he says about it because of where he's starting from.

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Response to noamnety (Reply #87)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 12:11 PM

90. We will have to just disagree then and that is ok.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Reply #90)

Fri Mar 4, 2016, 07:00 AM

107. It's dismissive

The poster is correct.

Why not - White Voters Thrown Away - for a title?

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Response to Bread and Circus (Reply #82)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 12:30 PM

91. Intent vs perception for attention

Please, I'm a Sanders supporter. I understand what you are trying to convey here. I've been saying for a while that we need to see how things fall in swing and battle ground states. Indies out number both r and d. We need to make sure we support our base, but poll them to see if we appeal to them or can within our party beliefs.

But honestly, you can't use a title like this. Not here or anywhere. It diminishes what is happening all across America, and the value of the BLM that stands apart from voter awareness issues. Please, consider restarting this thread in a couple of days with a better title. Tensions are already high here, and this only serves to fuel an unnecessary divide.

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Response to Kittycat (Reply #91)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 12:56 PM

93. I am sorry but this got alerted and was approved 7-0

I am not going to apologize for the title. I think it is a good title and makes sense.

Also don't be surprised if Hillary is claiming "All Lives Matter" by November. If she wins the nomination she will almost certainly pivot in a direction that will likely be inconsistent with hiw she is currently acting.

I think people should be more upset with her and not me.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Reply #93)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 02:09 PM

96. I know you did.

That doesn't mean it's any less inflammatory. This isn't about HRC, whom we can agree has thrown out any sense of decency when it comes to campaigning. See 2008 if there was ever a question of that, we don't even have to mention this year's issues to understand where she comes from. That said, this is a real issue - and I think you lose the value of discussion when you do this. And yes, you take a swipe at other significant issues - even if you didn't mean to, by trying to co-opt a message to draw shock and awe with an attention-getting title. As I said, your OP is very much worth the value of the discussion, your title demeans it. Do you think all this distraction served your OP value? Did you get the conversation you were hoping by putting that title up there? Probably not.

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Response to Kittycat (Reply #96)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 02:45 PM

98. I am sorry but I err on the side of free speech over avoiding rankling feathers.

My goal is to challenge people. It makes them uncomfortable but we need that to get them to think.

I really do not like "thought police".

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Response to Bread and Circus (Reply #98)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 03:13 PM

100. So what was your challenge then, BLM or what was in the OP?

This isn't about thought police or free speech. You distracted from your own message. Which was very challenging and thought provoking. Instead, you got a secondary discussion. You don't have to take anyone's advice, or hear the anger or frustration on how it was misperceived. You are entitled to free speech, but free speech doesn't mean people will listen. And it's a shame, because as I stated, it was worthy of discussion. That is all.

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Response to Kittycat (Reply #100)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 03:17 PM

101. It seemed like you wanted me to change the title but I am telling you I disagree.

That's how I am leaving this discussion. Anything else I said to you is up to you to interpret.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Reply #93)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 04:18 PM

105. A jury of possibly many right wing trolls does not mean that it's ok.

 

Just an FYI... Skinner has banned people for bigoted posts that have stood up to juries 0-7.

So, if you think that you got a claim to this shit being all peachy keen... Nope. It just means you got really lucky with that jury. Juries which Skinner has told us are heavily weighted 6-1 with Bernie supporters.



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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 09:41 AM

58. What are you blathering on about now?

Trying to paint the "core constituencies" as antisemitic didn't work, so now you want us to all bathe in a bucket of white tears?

Divisive much?

Clinton does not have a "white" problem. Nearly half of white DEMOCRATIC voters choose a different candidate in a PRIMARY. There is no reason to think that the real Democrats who participated will not support Clinton in the GE. And many of us primary Obama supporters chose Clinton this time. So you are dead wrong about that, too.

Nobody is denigrating any part of the Democratic coalition. And we nearly all agree that white working-class and college-aged citizens are getting a raw deal. We want to improve that for them and for all Americans. It is not JUST a white problem. But racism IS uniquely a POC problem that needs to be acknowledged and give priority too. People who cannot deal with that are the ones getting all thin skinned. IMO.

Obama's winning coalition consists of black and educated white voters, demographically. So the calculator you posted is wrong. If you calculate the white vote based on educated/uneducated whites, you get a much better feel for how shifts will affect the GE.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

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Response to wildeyed (Reply #58)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 10:57 AM

74. You can b.s. all you want but you can't argue with 79,000,000 votes.

By the way it is not my calculator, it is real clear politics calculator I believe. Argue with them if you want.

But if you want to keep burying your head in the sand, the last two midterm elections would like to have a word with you.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Reply #74)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 01:09 PM

95. You posted it.

I will argue with you. Fivethirtyeight's is more nuanced and yields more realistic results.

It's on y'all if you don't vote in midterms. That is WHY we don't have a public option, better college plan, etc. But keep pointing the finger at others, see where that gets you.

We can do BOTH. Deal with race AND address economic issues. But not when white "progressives" are all up in black people's grill about which individual candidate is "best for their rights". Go see if you got bingo yet. You might be a winner already

[URL=.html][IMG][/IMG][/URL]

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Response to wildeyed (Reply #95)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 02:52 PM

99. I do not believe your misdirections and deceptions thus we cannot have a real conversation.

I am sorry but I do not think you are honest or worthy of the effort it takes to carry discussion. That is something I rarely say but that is all I can say to you at this point.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 09:48 AM

61. I didn't know people were saying white votes don't matter.

 

I have seen it stated the other way.

Very interesting.

#thisistodayswinningmessage

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 10:08 AM

67. Whew, that's gonna piss some people off. n/t

 

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 10:13 AM

68. How long do we have to suffer right wing dog whistles on this board????????

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Response to Pisces (Reply #68)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 10:53 AM

73. This isn't a dog whistle. I am directly saying white votes matter

There's no code or secret to it. I am putting it right out there.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Reply #73)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 04:41 PM

106. It's not a dog whistle.

You ARE putting it right out there. That is a true statement.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 11:02 AM

75. So, whites won't vote for Hillary, but POC will line up to vote for Bernie in the GE?

Interesting.

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Response to grossproffit (Reply #75)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 11:43 AM

83. Reframing but mistating what I said may seem like effective argumentation but it isn't really..

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 11:13 AM

78. Totally agree

 

Nominating Hillary Clinton would be a huge middle finger to the white working class who are still the bulk of the electorate in the USA and will continue to be for quite some time.

Even the uneducated know the elites are playing a ruthless game and that Hillary is their point woman in this election.

We can either harness and capture the just indignation of the 99% by nominating Sanders or be on the wrong end of that righteous fury by nominating the bankers' agent. It shouldn't be a difficult decision.

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Response to Bread and Circus (Original post)

Fri Mar 4, 2016, 07:09 AM

108. It's crucial, when you have a point you care about, to articulate it in the most offensive

and off-putting way possible.

That is, now as ever, a political truth.

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Response to Recursion (Reply #108)

Fri Mar 4, 2016, 04:27 PM

111. Ummm......ok?

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