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Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:28 PM

 

What is Sanders path to victory, specifically?

So it looks to me like Sanders is going to lose LA, MI, MS, FL, IL, and MD by pretty large margins. He may come close in OH, WI, NC, and PA if we are being generous. I think he will lose OH, PA, UT and NC but not by large margins. He may win WI, but not by a large margin.

Do you think he will get half the 166 Mar 8th Delegates (MI and MS)? No way. Maybe a third at best.

Do you think he will half the 691 March 15th delegates (OH, NC, IL, MO, and FL)? Again, nope.

Unless the polling is very far off (when it hasn't been in previous states) he has no chance to catch up after the 15th. In fact, realistically, I think he will be trailing her by over 300 delegates by then (versus the 200 delegates he is trailing now).

If I am correct, will he drop out after the 15th? If the situation comes about as predicted, what would be the reasoning to stay in the race? Is it credible to think he would win each of the remaining states by 70% or more in order to catch up to the lead she has built?

Thoughts?

132 replies, 4447 views

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Reply What is Sanders path to victory, specifically? (Original post)
MaggieD Mar 2016 OP
ChairmanAgnostic Mar 2016 #1
MaggieD Mar 2016 #5
DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #29
BlueMTexpat Mar 2016 #12
Hortensis Mar 2016 #25
BreakfastClub Mar 2016 #124
redstateblues Mar 2016 #38
JaneyVee Mar 2016 #51
peggysue2 Mar 2016 #88
Chichiri Mar 2016 #60
riversedge Mar 2016 #76
lunamagica Mar 2016 #78
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Mar 2016 #111
asuhornets Mar 2016 #123
Ed Suspicious Mar 2016 #2
MaggieD Mar 2016 #8
gcomeau Mar 2016 #32
Raster Mar 2016 #33
MaggieD Mar 2016 #56
Raster Mar 2016 #61
MaggieD Mar 2016 #64
Raster Mar 2016 #66
MaggieD Mar 2016 #70
dchill Mar 2016 #35
Jester Messiah Mar 2016 #42
morningfog Mar 2016 #3
MaggieD Mar 2016 #9
morningfog Mar 2016 #10
MaggieD Mar 2016 #19
kristopher Mar 2016 #23
MaggieD Mar 2016 #58
riversedge Mar 2016 #77
bkkyosemite Mar 2016 #96
MaggieD Mar 2016 #97
bkkyosemite Mar 2016 #118
MaggieD Mar 2016 #119
bkkyosemite Mar 2016 #120
morningfog Mar 2016 #129
Xipe Totec Mar 2016 #4
MaggieD Mar 2016 #11
morningfog Mar 2016 #13
MaggieD Mar 2016 #17
morningfog Mar 2016 #20
bkkyosemite Mar 2016 #98
MaggieD Mar 2016 #100
bkkyosemite Mar 2016 #101
MaggieD Mar 2016 #103
bkkyosemite Mar 2016 #117
Blus4u Mar 2016 #126
firebrand80 Mar 2016 #6
Ed Suspicious Mar 2016 #16
MaggieD Mar 2016 #21
potone Mar 2016 #44
bkkyosemite Mar 2016 #99
metroins Mar 2016 #7
MaggieD Mar 2016 #15
metroins Mar 2016 #18
MaggieD Mar 2016 #22
Joe the Revelator Mar 2016 #113
Alfresco Mar 2016 #14
zappaman Mar 2016 #24
MillennialDem Mar 2016 #37
zappaman Mar 2016 #43
MillennialDem Mar 2016 #48
SpazCabinet Mar 2016 #26
wendylaroux Mar 2016 #28
MaggieD Mar 2016 #47
SpazCabinet Mar 2016 #74
SidDithers Mar 2016 #27
MaggieD Mar 2016 #41
merrily Mar 2016 #30
Ed Suspicious Mar 2016 #53
LineLineLineReply .
merrily Mar 2016 #95
NurseJackie Mar 2016 #31
MillennialDem Mar 2016 #34
MaggieD Mar 2016 #36
MillennialDem Mar 2016 #46
MaggieD Mar 2016 #49
MillennialDem Mar 2016 #54
MaggieD Mar 2016 #59
MillennialDem Mar 2016 #71
MaggieD Mar 2016 #75
MillennialDem Mar 2016 #79
MaggieD Mar 2016 #85
MillennialDem Mar 2016 #90
MaggieD Mar 2016 #92
MillennialDem Mar 2016 #106
Joe the Revelator Mar 2016 #115
Adrahil Mar 2016 #84
MillennialDem Mar 2016 #86
Adrahil Mar 2016 #89
MillennialDem Mar 2016 #91
Adrahil Mar 2016 #93
Gothmog Mar 2016 #39
DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #40
alcibiades_mystery Mar 2016 #45
MaggieD Mar 2016 #50
MillennialDem Mar 2016 #55
MaggieD Mar 2016 #62
MillennialDem Mar 2016 #80
Qutzupalotl Mar 2016 #63
HooptieWagon Mar 2016 #52
OhZone Mar 2016 #57
Chichiri Mar 2016 #65
Raster Mar 2016 #67
bkkyosemite Mar 2016 #102
Skid Rogue Mar 2016 #68
beachbum bob Mar 2016 #69
onenote Mar 2016 #72
taught_me_patience Mar 2016 #73
bkkyosemite Mar 2016 #104
Jester Messiah Mar 2016 #128
Kaleva Mar 2016 #81
Jon Ace Mar 2016 #82
Adrahil Mar 2016 #83
brooklynite Mar 2016 #109
Adrahil Mar 2016 #110
cherokeeprogressive Mar 2016 #87
morningfog Mar 2016 #94
Agnosticsherbet Mar 2016 #105
MineralMan Mar 2016 #107
SheenaR Mar 2016 #108
Depaysement Mar 2016 #112
dubyadiprecession Mar 2016 #114
noamnety Mar 2016 #116
asuhornets Mar 2016 #121
MaggieD Mar 2016 #122
Alfresco Mar 2016 #125
jillan Mar 2016 #127
polly7 Mar 2016 #130
ladjf Mar 2016 #131
Alfresco Mar 2016 #132

Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:30 PM

1. Indictment

Trial
Conviction.

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Response to ChairmanAgnostic (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:34 PM

5. Well that's not going to happen

 

Is that really what you are hanging your hopes on? You're in for some real disappointment.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #5)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:55 PM

29. I was told they aren't hoping for an indictment...

Of course they know in their bones the Vermont independent has no chance of beating Hillary Clinton strg8 up.

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Response to ChairmanAgnostic (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:38 PM

12. ....

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Response to ChairmanAgnostic (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:49 PM

25. I shouldn't laugh. But hanging your hopes

on the perennial promise that Hillary will be indicted? A whole generation of young conservatives has been born and grown up while their parents and grandparents waited impatiently for Hillary to be indicted in the latest of dozens of "scandals." Don't you realize the promises were always just lies tossed to mean conservatives to keep them happy?

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #25)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 11:42 PM

124. LOL, I can't believe repubs tricked DEM's into believing their nonsense this time! nt

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Response to ChairmanAgnostic (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:07 PM

38. Grasping at straws

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Response to ChairmanAgnostic (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:12 PM

51. I thought Breitbart died.

 

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #51)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 07:51 PM

88. Hahaha

His ghost obviously lingers within certain brains. Honestly, the numbers are the numbers. And if anyone is waiting for a big, bad indictment--like holding your breath for it to happen?

Boom! You're worm meat with Breitbart.

It doesn't get much dumber or desperate than this.

Hillary will still be standing.

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Response to ChairmanAgnostic (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:22 PM

60. Troopergate! nt

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Response to ChairmanAgnostic (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 07:05 PM

76. I would expect to see a RW write that post.

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Response to ChairmanAgnostic (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 07:15 PM

78. That's pathetic

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Response to ChairmanAgnostic (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:33 PM

111. Bingo

That's all the hope you have left.

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Response to ChairmanAgnostic (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 11:34 PM

123. LOL..

.Funny I must admit, ,but not going to happen

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:30 PM

2. He will not drop out. Get over it.

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Response to Ed Suspicious (Reply #2)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:34 PM

8. So he won't drop out even if he cannot possibly win

 

Is that what you are saying? Never seen a candidate to that. Why do you suppose he would?

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #8)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:57 PM

32. Why wouldn't he stay in?

 

Him being in is the only thing pulling Clinton kinda-sorta-to the left and forcing a discussion of issues everyone else wants to wave off and ignore. As long as he's doing that he's accomplishing something even if he doesn't win.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #8)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:59 PM

33. Because this is NOT ABOUT GETTING BERNIE ELECTED AS THE END RESULT!

This is about trying to return some control of this country back to the actual citizens, from the bankers and the corporations.

This is not a cult of personality. This is not something Bernie Sanders is doing because he's planned for it for years, or he thinks it's his turn. This is something he feels he has to do because he feels like the common, ordinary man and woman have been completely disenfranchised by our government.

This is a movement. And piss all over the concept as you wish. But there are a hell of alot of people who don't give a damn if this is Hillary's moment. There are a hell of alot of people - of all ages - that see the direction this country is moving AND BELIEVE IT IS WRONG.

AGAIN, this is NOT ABOUT FULFILLING THE GREATER GLORY OF AN INDIVIDUAL. This is about a place at the table for Joe and Jane Average. This is about being able to have kids knowing they will have opportunities to do better than you did.

And of course you've never seen a candidate to that, because they have always been part of the same crooked, rigged system, and that's they way they were expected to behave in the system.

Do you really think Bernie Sanders is doing this because he wants to? Do you really think Bernie Sanders is doing this for the glory of Bernie?

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Response to Raster (Reply #33)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:19 PM

56. How does that work in practice?

 

Poll after poll shows that most Dem voters are not pissed; they do like Obama; they want Obama's policies continued; etc., etc. I know a hell of a lot of Dem voters (been an activist for years) and they are not pissed at Democrats. The vast majority loathe republicans and blame them. But Bernie wants you to blame everybody in government, including Dems.

And I just don't think most Dem voters agree with that. Sure doesn't seem so from the 6.5 million that have voted so far.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #56)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:25 PM

61. This is NOT just about Dem voters, in fact, far from it.

And this is not about assigning blame. This is about making a change in direction. This is about re-evaluating what we hold dear and near as a people, not as a party. A people.

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Response to Raster (Reply #61)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:29 PM

64. I think you misunderstand the purpose of a primary

 

The loser doesn't get to facilitate the change in direction they campaigned on. Thank god, I might add. Hail Democracy!!!

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #64)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:33 PM

66. Perhaps. And I think may you misunderstand the definition of DEMOCRACY.

Have a nice day.

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Response to Raster (Reply #66)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:41 PM

70. No, I think I understand it

 

And love it. She's whooping the pants off your guy.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #8)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:06 PM

35. Neither will Hillary.

She's already proved/is proving that.

Specifically, why do you ask? And whom are you asking?

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #8)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:08 PM

42. Because to hell with your corporatist war-monger, that's why. n/t

 

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:32 PM

3. A recent candidate said something about staying in the race even after trailing

 

and without a viable pth to victory.

Oh yeah. It was Hillary 08. Bernie's not going anywhere.

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Response to morningfog (Reply #3)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:36 PM

9. Clinton / Obama was 47.31% to 48.04% at the end

 

Bernie is no where near that close. So what is the rationale going to be after Mar 15th? Any idea?

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #9)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:37 PM

10. Until mathematically eleimnated, stay in.

 

Easy.

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Response to morningfog (Reply #10)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:43 PM

19. So should he stay in assuming he will get 70-100% of the remaining delegates?

 

I think that would tarnish his image and make him look rather foolish.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #19)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:48 PM

23. Are you even aware that threads like this have the smell of fear on them?

There are 35 states that have yet to vote.
Consider not acting out of fear and anxiety while we allow the process to go forward, please.

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Response to kristopher (Reply #23)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:20 PM

58. LOL - I don't think for one second that Bernie is going to win

 

Never have. I just wonder how long he will scream and shout once the rest of the country knows it.

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Response to kristopher (Reply #23)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 07:07 PM

77. No, not fear at all. No one ansered what Sander's path to Victory is yet.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #19)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:18 PM

96. Sorry Maggie he is staying in and we are backing that!

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Response to bkkyosemite (Reply #96)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:19 PM

97. I get that - the question is why?

 

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #97)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 09:20 PM

118. Perhaps you should go to BernieSanders . com and research research research or do you

prefer to just believe in the stuff that Hillary touts out to you. I think it's the latter.

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Response to bkkyosemite (Reply #118)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 09:32 PM

119. Why do you think I haven't?

 

I have very specific criticisms of his proposals, so I certainly understand them. I think pretending her supporters are just stupid is an obvious attempt to marginalize her supporters.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #119)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 11:08 PM

120. never said anyone was stupid. Why do you try to put words in mouths.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #97)

Fri Mar 4, 2016, 08:17 AM

129. To piss you off.

 

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:33 PM

4. Step 1. Gather enough delegates. Step 2. Profit! nt

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Response to Xipe Totec (Reply #4)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:37 PM

11. That could be the motivation

 

But I wonder if the real motivation is simply to tear down the Democratic party.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #11)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:38 PM

13. He's so stealthy.

 

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Response to morningfog (Reply #13)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:41 PM

17. Can you provide a rational alternative reason?

 

I've tried to think of one, but that's all I can come up with. I assume he and his team are competent at math. I suppose he could be slinging the same baloney all politicians sling before they drop out.

What do you think?

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #17)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:44 PM

20. I already have you one. There are many.

 

Influence, unexpected turn of events, still has support. Just use your brain.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #11)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:20 PM

98. No it's to tear down the corrupt politicians in the Democratic Party that bow down

to the corporate and Wall Street ptb...oh wait and the rethugs too.

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Response to bkkyosemite (Reply #98)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:22 PM

100. Thanks for admitting that

 

So he really isn't trying to start a revolution. Because if he ensures Dems get buried in Nov as seems to be his aim, how does that help? He can't explain that, and none of his supporters will ask him to. What is the plan once he gets what he wants?

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #100)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:24 PM

101. If Dems get blamed? You try to blame it on Bernie LOL...it will be your Queen who will

cause that...untrustworthy, dishonest that's what they say.

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Response to bkkyosemite (Reply #101)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:25 PM

103. The only one I have seen be dishonest in this campaign is Bernie

 

Like this example regarding paying for his proposals:

Please tell us who these 130 economists and healthcare experts are? They do not exist.

"CUOMO: Alright, in terms of what you want to provide, then you get to the wealth, will that be enough? Will that pay for it?

As you're aware, four former chairs of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, all appointed by Democrats, by the way. Say there's no credible economic research that supports the positive impacts that you're touting. One of them goes as far to say that it's like magic flying puppies with winning lotto tickets tied to their collars.

SANDERS: Those economists were organized by the Clinton campaign. It's a wild and crazy guess.

CUOMO: No, that's not true, they weren't...

SANDERS: ... We have well over a hundred, it's a 130 economists, and healthcare experts who will say the same."


http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1602/23/se.01.html

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #100)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 09:18 PM

117. tear is the word you used...I didn't admit anything. He is trying to make it known

that it is rigged, fraudulent and corrupt..Tear it down tear it down. We are sick of the corruption in our government....I absolutely admit that! That is why I am voting for Bernie Sanders. He is NOT like Clinton or the other candidates he tells the truth! You will try to tear him down anyway you can MaggieD. Your posts are really aggressive towards Bernie and his supporters.

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Response to bkkyosemite (Reply #117)

Fri Mar 4, 2016, 07:41 AM

126. Ooh ---- ALERT ALERT ALERT

Danger, Will, danger!
I better 'return to top' to see if I have a jury summons.

Peace

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:34 PM

6. I don't think he'll drop out

I believe he got into the race not believing he had a chance to win, he just wanted to shine the light on his pet issues. After flirting with the possibility that he could win for a few months, he's now free to stay in for the same reason he ran in the first place.

I do find it funny that Bernie's supporters have moved the goalposts from "he's going to win!" to "he's not dropping out before the convention."

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Response to firebrand80 (Reply #6)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:41 PM

16. No we have not! We still absolutely feel he will win. You guys cite polls as they are today.

Obviously we feel our candidate will gain momentum. We absolutely feel he is in it to win it and this party is just getting started.

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Response to Ed Suspicious (Reply #16)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:45 PM

21. How? What is the path to winning?

 

Because it seems pretty impossible if you look at the data and demographics. I don't blame him for staying in NOW, but after the 15th I think he starts to look kind of foolish and unable to accept reality.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #21)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:08 PM

44. There are many primaries after the 15th.

This is not just about what Bernie wants; it is about letting all of us have a say in who becomes our nominee. I find it very objectionable that so many Hillary supporters want to deny those of us in states that have later primaries or caucuses any voice in the process. Do you truly not understand that? Or are you just wanting him to drop out so that the decision is made for us? If so, that is truly undemocratic.

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Response to firebrand80 (Reply #6)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:22 PM

99. His pet issues are what the average American's need to address and get rid of those

who do not agree with his many many top of the line issues....

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:34 PM

7. He shouldn't drop out

But he and his supporters should stop attacking her and helping the Republicans.

It's pretty clear Hillary will be the nominee, it's time to unite and focus on the Republicans.

Him still running will help get out the vote, there's no upside to her sailing into the convention.

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Response to metroins (Reply #7)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:40 PM

15. I can agree with that being a good thing

 

But I fear his motivation to stick around is to continue to tear down the Democratic party. I don't think he and his supporters have a different mode (at least not that I have seen).

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #15)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:42 PM

18. I think we're going to have to hope

Bernie is the leader he says he is and helps rally his supporters to the nominee, Hillary.

Republicans are having record turnout, no Democrat can risk burning bridges.

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Response to metroins (Reply #18)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:45 PM

22. I got you, but candidates don't do that before dropping out

 

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #15)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:36 PM

113. 'continue to tear down the democratic party'

 

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:40 PM

14. Spike Lee said Bernie will do the right thing. We'll see.

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:48 PM

24. Easy.

#berniemath

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Response to zappaman (Reply #24)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:07 PM

37. M.S. in math and Bernie can still win. Your qualifications? It's very unlikely and the polling would

 

have to be massively off (in particular in FL and MI) or Hillary would have to have a gaffe or meltdown.

I love when people who don't understand numbers play with them.

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Response to MillennialDem (Reply #37)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:08 PM

43. Uh uh.

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Response to zappaman (Reply #43)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:10 PM

48. Again, your qualifications?

 

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:51 PM

26. RE: What is Sanders path to victory, specifically?

Sanders grassroots movement has been doing very well. Sanders has come from less than 3 percent in the polls nationally to being tied with Hillary in some recent polls. Climbing such a steep hill so quickly is a big deal. Sanders has a chance because his supporters are spending record breaking amounts of time and money on his campaign. Sanders is not over by a long shot. Hillary's slam dunks are behind her and it is time for both campaigns to kick it in to over time.

Lastly you mentioned that polling hasn't been off in previous states, you should look into Minnesota. The polls were a start difference. This also plays into the Sanders campaigns grassroots efforts to climb steep hills.

A long-shot maybe but a long-shot a lot of people think is worth it.

Best Regards!

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Response to SpazCabinet (Reply #26)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:54 PM

28. Very nice Spaz!!



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Response to SpazCabinet (Reply #26)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:10 PM

47. So you think money can buy elections after all?

 

That still doesn't explain the path though, unless you're saying money will buy him blow out wins where polls are showing he will lose big. Is that what you're saying?

Sorry, I am the analytical type and so his plan is unclear to me. Sounds a lot like wishful thinking.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #47)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:54 PM

74. RE: So you think money can buy elections after all?

Due to the nature of political campaigns and the rhetoric thrown around regarding Citizens United one might take what I said about the money that Sanders has raised as me trying to correlate dollars with votes but that is not what I am trying to do. The amount of money that the Sander's Campaign is raising correlates more to his number of grassroots supporters. That matters because they get out the vote.

You do make an interesting point though when you ask me if I think money can buy elections. You see if money can buy elections (and it has been shown that it does) Hillary would be the winner. I think few would want their candidate to win simply because they have more money

Thank you for taking the time to respond to my post it is very kind of you and sorry if my first post was a tad non-sequitur I was in a parking lot going to my car.

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:53 PM

27. He doesn't have one...

Not after the blowouts in the southern states on Super Tuesday.

If he'd been within 15% in those states, maybe there's be a path.

But losing them all by more than 30%?

Nope.

Sid

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Response to SidDithers (Reply #27)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:08 PM

41. I agree - nope

 

There is no plausible scenario if the polls through the Mar 15th contests hold true (and they sure have up to this point). He's toast.

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:56 PM

30. Best call him and tell him to drop out, right fucking now!

Of course, Hillary remained in the 2008 primary well after a win for her was mathematically impossible, but Bernie still has a chance. Still, he should drop out. It's her turn, damn it!!111/1

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Response to merrily (Reply #30)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:15 PM

53. I mean, after all, we do remember what happened to Bobby Kennedy.

I don't want him to drop out early in case he needs to be there during that sort of tragic event. I think that's what Hillary would tell us on the matter.

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 05:56 PM

31. He has NO PATH to the nomination. None. Nada. Zip. Zilch. Zero.

Go, Hillary! We love you!


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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:04 PM

34. This tells you his potential path to victory.

 

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Response to MillennialDem (Reply #34)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:07 PM

36. Yes, but he has met almost none of those targets

 

Hence, my post.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #36)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:10 PM

46. He's at 84% of his target so far. He is absolutely the underdog now, but if you're claiming

 

he's mathematically knocked out you're 100% wrong.

Appeal to self authority, but I have an M.S. in math, so be careful with numbers around me.

If the FL and MI poll numbers are correct though, he's going to be nearly knocked out. But primaries can be tricky to poll, and support in primaries can swing pretty wildly. It's not like the GE where each side is virtually guaranteed 45% of the vote.

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Response to MillennialDem (Reply #46)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:11 PM

49. No, I'm saying he has no clear path now

 

And no viable path whatsoever after Mar 15th if the polls continue to be as accurate as they have been.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #49)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:17 PM

54. Define clear and viable paths please, PRECISELY. I am a mathematician after all, and

 

if there is anyone more anal than an attorney or an accountant about definitions, it's us.

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Response to MillennialDem (Reply #54)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:22 PM

59. Okay, give me a realistic scenario

 

Because I don't think him sweeping 65%-70% of the remaining delegates after Mar 15th is realistic. Do you?

Remember, I predicted he would be down 200 delegates as compared to her after ST. And he is down 199. I think I did pretty good with that math. Your turn.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #59)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:50 PM

71. You didn't define the two things i asked. You are also saying realistic scenario, and that doesn't

 



have a precise definition either.

But anyway.

Current scenario:
Could be wrong. If I am correct me here. There are 4051 non-super delegates and 717 super delegates. One must have 2,383 delegates to win.

Not counting super delegates, Bernie has 412 delegates and Hillary has 609 where I see (that's a 197, not 199 difference). Let's assume that whoever wins the majority of the non-super delegates will almost all of the super delegates so let's consider that a non-factor.

Right now, Bernie would need to win 198 more of the 3030 remaining non super delegates than Hillary. That would mean he needs to win

of the remaining 3030 delegates that means Bernie would need to win 1614 (or more) and Hillary would need to not win more than 1416.

1614/3030 = 53.3% (rounded up).

Now for the after March 15th scenario:

This depends how he does on March 15th. If he does as well as fivethirtyeight says he needs to, he will win 326/691 on March 15th, 3/6 on March 12th, 80/166 on March 8th 15/25 on March 6th, and 52/109 on March 5th.

That would put him at 888 delegates.

Hillary would be at 1124 delegates.

A difference of 236 delegates.

The number of remaining delegates would be 2039. Bernie would need to win 1138 of them. That's 55.8%.

For a less favorable Sanders scenario

Let's assume that Sanders has 856 delegates and Hillary has 1156 delegates, a difference of 300. Then he would need to win 1170 of the remaining delegates, which is 57.4% of the remaining delegates.

for an even less favorable scenario

Let's assume Bernie has 806 delegates and Hillary has 1206. A difference of 400.

In which case Bernie would need to win 1220 of the remaining delegates, which is 59.8%.

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Response to MillennialDem (Reply #71)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 07:02 PM

75. I see - so your method is to ignore the polls

 

... that up until this time have been almost spot on correct. Got it.

I think what you're really saying is you do not want to face the results of what is going to occur in the next 12 days.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #75)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 07:18 PM

79. #Hillarymath. Seriously, what the fuck? I gave mathematical scenarios, not predictions. Is Hillary

 

predicted to have a more than 400 delegate lead on Bernie the morning of March 16th? I can run the numbers for you then too, but I don't see how Bernie is going to need to pull in 65% (or more) of the remaining vote after March 15th. That would require Bernie only picking up 300 delegates (out of 997, in other words Hillary winning by an average of 70%-30%) between now and March 16th.

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Response to MillennialDem (Reply #79)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 07:50 PM

85. Your math ignores the drubbing he will take by Mar 15th

 

As I stated she will be 300 delegates or more ahead by then. I see you declined to face that reality in favor of pretending he will get some 55% of the votes where he is currently polling under 30%.

But I think you made my point, so thanks. It's #Berniemath.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #85)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 07:54 PM

90. No I didn't. RTFP. I gave the scenario of him being down 300 and being down 400 on

 

the morning of March 16th!

If he's down 300, he will need to win 57.4% of the remaining delegates.

If he's down 400, he will need to win 59.8% of the remaining delegates.

It's not 65% unless Hillary beats him by 70-30 average between now and 3/16.

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Response to MillennialDem (Reply #90)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:02 PM

92. Okay, 57.4% - is that realistic?

 

And she is going to beat him by nearly that much in several states. But even if we go with your rosy scenario, how realistic is it that he is going to win 58-60% of all future delegates?

In which states will this happen? All of them? Really?

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #92)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:27 PM

106. He only needs to win 58-60% average, not every remaining state. I honestly don't

 

know how likely that is, but the primaries are pretty favorable to him after 3/15.

A lot of it is going to depend on how well he reaches hispanic voters out west I think. He's obviously doing piss poor with african americans in the south, so he may completely flub there.

That said, it's still way too early to count him out and saying he needs to win 65-70% of the remaining vote is a rosy Hillary scenario. She'd need to win 85% of the delegates between now and 3/16 for Bernie to need to win 70% of the remaining after 3/16.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #85)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:41 PM

115. You are seriously getting out classed here...nt

 

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Response to MillennialDem (Reply #46)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 07:44 PM

84. There is a different between mathematically possible, and plausible.

 

Yes, if something dramatic happens, he could potentially still win the nomination. But is it plausible?

Right now, the trends are not good for him. He under-performing his targets by quite a bit, with no sign that the trend will change. In fact, recent national polls suggest he may be peaked.

If things continue as expected through March 15th, Hillary could lose every contest after that by a 65-35 margin and STILL get a majority of delegates. Think about that.

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Response to Adrahil (Reply #84)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 07:50 PM

86. Do you have the exact projection for that? Because the only way I'm getting Bernie needing 65% of

 

the remaining delegates after March 15th is if Hillary wins 697 out of 997 of the delegates in the contests between now and March 16th.

That's winning 69.9% of the delegates in the 3/5, 3/6, 3/8, 3/12, and 3/15 contests, by the way.

That's fine if true, but do you have polls to all the states voting that indicate that?

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Response to MillennialDem (Reply #86)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 07:54 PM

89. I ball parked the number based on Hillary winning 2/3rd of the delegates....

 

... based on the predicted outcomes on 538, though not all those contests are well-polled. It could be off +/-5% or so.

The point being that after the 15th, Bernie's path to a nomination gets extremely improbable.

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Response to Adrahil (Reply #89)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:00 PM

91. That's a pretty big assumption, IMO. It could be right, but what if it's a 58/42 split?

 

Then he would "only" need to win 59.2% of the post March 15th delegates.

Which is tough, but the post March 15th states do favor him.

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Response to MillennialDem (Reply #91)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:04 PM

93. That is true.

 

Which is why I think we will not really know until the 15th. But let's say that scenario happens. Sanders is even deeper in a hole and now he needs to be winning the delegate split by 60/40 +. That's a tall order.

But honestly I am not interested in trying to hound Bernie and his supporters out of the race. I don't see any real benefit to that. Let's let the chips fall where they may over the next couple weeks and then look at it again.

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Response to MillennialDem (Reply #34)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:07 PM

39. That pathway is not longer viable

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:08 PM

40. Senator Sanders should peer into his conscience and do what he thinks is right.

It's up to him to run his campaign and decide when to terminate it, if ever.

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:08 PM

45. I want to see the vote in every state

 

I want the Sanders people to see the vote in every state.

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #45)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:12 PM

50. Why?

 

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #50)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:19 PM

55. Not sure what other poster meant but I do too. As for why? chance for my voice to be heard. If Hilla

 

ry quits now, I don't get to vote until I hold my nose for her in November. Oh and even then my vote doesn't count (I'm in WI. My vote will not matter. Contrary to what republicans think, we are a blue state in presidential elections).

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Response to MillennialDem (Reply #55)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:28 PM

62. WI is prior to the March 15th date I'm talking about

 

So don't you always get your say?

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #62)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 07:24 PM

80. WI is April 5th.

 

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #50)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:29 PM

63. So we all have our voices heard.

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:15 PM

52. Earning delegates until the Convention.

 

That should be obvious.

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:19 PM

57. Can he win the most imporatant state, doe?

The State of Denial!

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:30 PM

65. As a Hillary supporter, I hope Bernie doesn't drop out.

The moment he does, after some awesome coverage of her victory lap, all the media coverage is going to turn to the Republican race. The question everyone is going to be asking now is, will Trump get a majority of delegates, and what happens after he does or doesn't? But if the Democratic race is still a two person race, then the media will cover it, right up until she gets 2,026 pledged delegates - and while her lead will fluctuate, she will be the front runner for that entire time.

Plus, it doesn't hurt to keep giving Bernie's ideas as much exposure as we can with this opportunity. Because this is the direction we should be going, and the best way to do it is bottom up.

So yeah, Bernie should stay in it.

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Response to Chichiri (Reply #65)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:37 PM

67. OMG, Thank you for that!

"Plus, it doesn't hurt to keep giving Bernie's ideas as much exposure as we can with this opportunity. Because this is the direction we should be going, and the best way to do it is bottom up."

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Response to Chichiri (Reply #65)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:25 PM

102. If you feel this way shouldn't you be supporting Bernie?

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:39 PM

68. I certainly don't see a path for him,

but if he stays in he'll keep his supporters energized and organized. That's a positive. However, once we get to June, the constant Hillary bashing needs to stop. After that point, it becomes an overall drag on the party, not just hurting Hillary, but everyone down ticket, too.

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:40 PM

69. a hope and a prayer at this point...in 12 days not so much...

 

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:50 PM

72. I voted for Bernie in Virginia and while I don't see a path for him to get the nomination I see no

reason for him to drop out of the race.

He should stay in and at the convention even if it has become mathematically impossible for him to get the nomination and, when the maximum attention is directed his way, have a "unity" appearance with Clinton. Indeed, he should follow Clinton's lead from 2008 and be the one to move that Clinton be nominated by acclamation.

Then we should go forward knowing that the seeds for change have been planted and while they have only begun to sprout, with appropriate care and effort, those who have been excited by Bernie's campaign can continue to make a difference in future house and senate races.

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:52 PM

73. He has no chance and should dial back the criticism of Clinton n/t

 

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Response to taught_me_patience (Reply #73)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:26 PM

104. Why he is against a hawk, one who flip flops and so are his supporters.

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Response to taught_me_patience (Reply #73)

Fri Mar 4, 2016, 07:59 AM

128. Or else what? n/t

 

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 07:27 PM

81. Hillary being indicted before the convention.

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 07:33 PM

82. Polling is sparse according to RCP, so I can't give you a specific path

It'll be an uphill battle, that's for sure.

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 07:39 PM

83. Something like this....

 

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Response to Adrahil (Reply #83)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:31 PM

109. Ah, Sidney Harris. He lived in my apartment when I was growing up.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #109)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:33 PM

110. Cool! That cartoon is an all-time fave.

 

I'm an senior engineer, and I use it a lot to call out hand-waving junior engineers.

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 07:51 PM

87. Votes

 

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:05 PM

94. More delegates than Hilary at the convention.

 

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:27 PM

105. From what I've heard....he intends to

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:28 PM

107. Well, if he's gonna win, he'll have

to get more delegates than Hillary. Simple, huh?

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:31 PM

108. Specifically

By winning:

KS, NE, ME, MI, MO, OH, AZ, ID, UT, AK, HI, WA, ND, WI, WY, NY, CT, DE, PA, RI, IN, WV, KY, OR, CA, MT, NJ, NM, SD

That's as specific as I'll get for now.

Hope this suffices. You asked , I answered. Don't shoot the messenger.

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:35 PM

112. Bernie is building a progressive movement

Unlike Hillary, he is not only running to get elected and to wield power.

Sorry, he is in it until he can't go anymore: either the money runs out or hordes of people stop showing up.

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:38 PM

114. That's like asking what hitler's path to victory is after losing in africa, losing on the east..

front and now the allies are landing in france. Defeat is inevitable! Bernie is feeling the bern!

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 08:43 PM

116. I haven't taken time to look at specific states.

 

But I will tell you that I'm taking all predictions from Hillary supporters with a grain of salt. When they say "ah, this is what he will win or lose, this is the date I think he will drop out" - I flash back to old threads. For example, from just this Sunday, there was a poll in the hillary group.

Is it possible that Bernie will only win Vermont on Tuesday?

17 people said he will only win Vermont. (53%)
12 people said he will only win 2 states.
2 people said he would win 2 states.
0 people said he would win 3,4, or 5 states
1 person said he would win 6 states.

DU may not be representative of the rest of the Hillary supporters in the world, of course. But it did send a clear message to the rest of DU that we should disregard their opinions about what he will or won't win.

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 11:22 PM

121. Over for Bernie...

The guy from Daily Kos was on Mark Thompson radio show on Sirius and what happened was he said March 15th is over for Bernie.

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Response to asuhornets (Reply #121)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 11:24 PM

122. That's my point

 

He can flail on, but there is no purpose to that IMO.

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Fri Mar 4, 2016, 07:28 AM

125. kick

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Fri Mar 4, 2016, 07:51 AM

127. He's going to follow the yellow brick road with all his

little followers lined up behind him all the way to Oz.

Is this a silly answer? Why yes of course it is. It's the perfect answer to your question. This is a democracy we let people vote. When one of our candidates have enough delegates then we can talk.
You are not a political analyst. You are a poster on a forum who is trying extremely hard to get all the Bernie supporters defend him and all the Hillary supporters say he has no path. Clear as glass.

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Fri Mar 4, 2016, 08:18 AM

130. The will and wishes of the people. nt.

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Fri Mar 4, 2016, 08:29 AM

131. What is your motivation for asking that question? nt

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Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Tue Mar 8, 2016, 04:44 AM

132. March 8th has arrived.

Go Hillary!

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