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Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 04:53 PM Mar 2016

Looking at the latest primary predictions from 538, it's safe to say Bernie is pretty much finished

Bernie has almost no chance in Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Illinois, and Ohio. These are massive states with a lot of delegates.

This is terrible news for Bernie and his camapign.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/

It's clear that Bernie struggles as states get more diverse.

If he had done a better job of reaching out to minorities, he may have had a better chance. But his singular focus on income inequality is what doomed his campaign.

34 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Looking at the latest primary predictions from 538, it's safe to say Bernie is pretty much finished (Original Post) Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 OP
It's been safe to say that since last October Renew Deal Mar 2016 #1
Oh dear, this won't end well. grossproffit Mar 2016 #2
Yup. He's toast... SidDithers Mar 2016 #3
Classy as usual Sid. nt Logical Mar 2016 #15
K&R! stonecutter357 Mar 2016 #4
I don't know, with billions and billions of democrats leaving the party if Bernie isn't the nominee. still_one Mar 2016 #5
Lob this tidbit over into the HRC group. TheCowsCameHome Mar 2016 #6
Bernie was a great candidate. His campaign staff?? oasis Mar 2016 #7
When the South Carolina result was announced, he wasn't even in South Carolina Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #8
I guess the commitment to a 50 state strategy was conditional. oasis Mar 2016 #11
His only chance now would be the indictment the Bernie diehards are praying for. DCBob Mar 2016 #9
I'm glad you're speaking for all his supporters. JRLeft Mar 2016 #29
Its safe to say that 538 is not a perfect predictor of the future Go Vols Mar 2016 #10
Yes, but there were lots of reasons BlueMTexpat Mar 2016 #18
Yes, March 15th will seal the deal. Alfresco Mar 2016 #12
Here are the actual poll composites BlueMTexpat Mar 2016 #13
LOL, another classless post from you. Soon you will be begging for sander supporters. nt Logical Mar 2016 #14
+1,000 TheCowsCameHome Mar 2016 #16
To do what? rock Mar 2016 #28
To vote for a corporate democrat who loves war and wall street! nt Logical Mar 2016 #30
Maybe they just want to spite their face? rock Mar 2016 #31
Uh-huh. Aha Mar 2016 #17
"Reaching out to minorities" wouldn't have changed a damn thing. Lizzie Poppet Mar 2016 #19
He'll just contest the result at the convention KingFlorez Mar 2016 #20
Sanders won't do that. Codeine Mar 2016 #21
Agreed ... salinsky Mar 2016 #34
no. those are just probability numbers. I still have faith Bernie will do great in Michigan and bernie_FTW Mar 2016 #22
Looking at the primary predictions from 538, it's safe to say Trump and Cruz are finished! Links: Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #23
Nate Silver correctly predicted every state in the 2012 prez election. kstewart33 Mar 2016 #24
Nate Silver has said his model does not apply to primaries. Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #25
Blah blah blah. Shadowflash Mar 2016 #26
I've been saying this for weeks ... NurseJackie Mar 2016 #27
Oh thank god! I thought we were in danger... actslikeacarrot Mar 2016 #32
Great, Lloyd Blankfein can breathe easier. Broward Mar 2016 #33
 

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)
8. When the South Carolina result was announced, he wasn't even in South Carolina
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 05:18 PM
Mar 2016

He was on a plane bound for Minnesota.

He didn't campaign very much in the states with a large proportion of black voters.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
9. His only chance now would be the indictment the Bernie diehards are praying for.
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 05:18 PM
Mar 2016

That is pretty much a zero chance also.

 

JRLeft

(7,010 posts)
29. I'm glad you're speaking for all his supporters.
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 07:18 PM
Mar 2016

I can't say what I really want, but I would definitely say it to your face.

Go Vols

(5,902 posts)
10. Its safe to say that 538 is not a perfect predictor of the future
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 05:26 PM
Mar 2016
What We Got Wrong In Our 2015 U.K. General Election Model

No calculations are necessary to see that we missed badly in our forecast of the U.K. election.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/

BlueMTexpat

(15,365 posts)
18. Yes, but there were lots of reasons
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 05:47 PM
Mar 2016

whose effects could not reasonably have been anticipated. One thing that I have not seen discussed in the media, apart from the gross defection - ultimately dissolution - of Lib Dems (although I must confess that I haven't been looking), is that not only were many Labour voters unhappy with Ed Miliband, they actually feared that Labour would be forced to ally with the SNP and this prospect alienated many Labour voters in Northern Ireland and Wales, especially. Such voters actually voted for Conservatives.

This view is more anecdotal than anything because it was discussed among several of my Expat Brit friends. I told them that I thought it was similar to so many US voters who vote against their best interests or don't vote at all. IMO - and theirs, btw - the Cameron government has been disastrous.

 

Aha

(53 posts)
17. Uh-huh.
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 05:45 PM
Mar 2016

Mmmm-hmmm...

Nate Silver was wrong in the UK, the Canada election and the Scottish referendum.

He'll be wrong on this one, as usual.

 

Lizzie Poppet

(10,164 posts)
19. "Reaching out to minorities" wouldn't have changed a damn thing.
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 05:52 PM
Mar 2016

A person with an unimpeachable and decades-long civil rights record can't "reach out" any more than their record itself does. That voting group was clearly never on the table for Bernie, due in large part to its obvious loyalty to the Clinton name.

I'd also speculate that the other big reason was that the AA voting community simply isn't nearly as far-left as Bernie (and a goodly percentage are conservative, not just less-liberal). That contingent isn't likely to accept any Republican (since that party contains so many racists and doesn't fight for issues important to them). The more-conservative Democrat is the obvious choice.

Do I think economic injustice should be at or near the top for every non-1%'er voter, regardless of race. Of course. What progressive wouldn't think that? Not my call to make, though..

In any case, I have to reiterate: the AA vote (jury's out on the Latino vote) was never on the table for Bernie in the first place. Kinda like the young voter demographic isn't for Hillary, regardless of how hard she might try. They don't trust her. It's fucked up that the candidates would seem to have to pick one (and only one)...but it sure looks like that's the way it's gone.

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
20. He'll just contest the result at the convention
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 05:55 PM
Mar 2016

Him and his supporters will make a massive scene at the convention even if he is far behind in pledged delegates.

 

Codeine

(25,586 posts)
21. Sanders won't do that.
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 05:58 PM
Mar 2016

He's an honorable, stand-up guy.

His followers, OTOH? Yeah, I could see them getting a little pissy at the convention.

salinsky

(1,065 posts)
34. Agreed ...
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 08:26 PM
Mar 2016

... Bernie has a hell of a lot more class and sense than many of his supporters display here.

bernie_FTW

(43 posts)
22. no. those are just probability numbers. I still have faith Bernie will do great in Michigan and
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 06:00 PM
Mar 2016

California, New York, Oregon, Washington, and other populous states. Bernie is going to pull off the upset.

I KNOW Bernie is going to win the entire west coast.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
23. Looking at the primary predictions from 538, it's safe to say Trump and Cruz are finished! Links:
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 06:06 PM
Mar 2016

Whenever someone cites 538 as a reason to think the Sanders campaign is doomed, that's a good time to review the collected genius and wisdom of 538:

Let’s Be Serious About Ted Cruz From The Start: He’s Too Extreme And Too Disliked To Win

Ted Cruz Has A Huge Math Problem

The Glass-Half-Empty Case Against Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz Is Just Like Reagan In 1980, Except People Actually Liked Reagan

Ted Cruz’s General Election Strategy Is Wishful Thinking

Donald Trump’s Six Stages Of Doom

Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously

Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates

Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?

Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention

Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News

Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner!

Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls

Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate

kstewart33

(6,551 posts)
24. Nate Silver correctly predicted every state in the 2012 prez election.
Sun Mar 6, 2016, 06:12 PM
Mar 2016

No one else came close to that. He also beat all polls in predicting the US Senate outcomes.

He may be occasionally wrong, but his predictions for the next two weeks' races will be right on, with one, maybe two exceptions.

Why? His track record.

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