2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumLooking at the latest primary predictions from 538, it's safe to say Bernie is pretty much finished
Bernie has almost no chance in Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Illinois, and Ohio. These are massive states with a lot of delegates.
This is terrible news for Bernie and his camapign.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/
It's clear that Bernie struggles as states get more diverse.
If he had done a better job of reaching out to minorities, he may have had a better chance. But his singular focus on income inequality is what doomed his campaign.
Renew Deal
(81,844 posts)But that's another story
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)You may need this
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)bernt toast.
Sid
Logical
(22,457 posts)stonecutter357
(12,693 posts)still_one
(92,061 posts)TheCowsCameHome
(40,167 posts)The diners are always hungry for red meat.
oasis
(49,326 posts)Well, they tried at least.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)He was on a plane bound for Minnesota.
He didn't campaign very much in the states with a large proportion of black voters.
oasis
(49,326 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)That is pretty much a zero chance also.
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)I can't say what I really want, but I would definitely say it to your face.
Go Vols
(5,902 posts)No calculations are necessary to see that we missed badly in our forecast of the U.K. election.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/
BlueMTexpat
(15,365 posts)whose effects could not reasonably have been anticipated. One thing that I have not seen discussed in the media, apart from the gross defection - ultimately dissolution - of Lib Dems (although I must confess that I haven't been looking), is that not only were many Labour voters unhappy with Ed Miliband, they actually feared that Labour would be forced to ally with the SNP and this prospect alienated many Labour voters in Northern Ireland and Wales, especially. Such voters actually voted for Conservatives.
This view is more anecdotal than anything because it was discussed among several of my Expat Brit friends. I told them that I thought it was similar to so many US voters who vote against their best interests or don't vote at all. IMO - and theirs, btw - the Cameron government has been disastrous.
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)BlueMTexpat
(15,365 posts)per today.
Michigan http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html
Florida http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-3556.html
North Carolina http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-5175.html
Illinois (nothing more recent than 2/20) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/il/illinois_democratic_presidential_primary-5567.html
Ohio (nothing more recent than 2/20) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary-5313.html
Things do look good, although there has been some tightening in the polls. If Hillary can win by these margins at least, she should be in excellent to outstanding shape after March 8.
Logical
(22,457 posts)TheCowsCameHome
(40,167 posts)Logical
(22,457 posts)rock
(13,218 posts)Aha
(53 posts)Mmmm-hmmm...
Nate Silver was wrong in the UK, the Canada election and the Scottish referendum.
He'll be wrong on this one, as usual.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)A person with an unimpeachable and decades-long civil rights record can't "reach out" any more than their record itself does. That voting group was clearly never on the table for Bernie, due in large part to its obvious loyalty to the Clinton name.
I'd also speculate that the other big reason was that the AA voting community simply isn't nearly as far-left as Bernie (and a goodly percentage are conservative, not just less-liberal). That contingent isn't likely to accept any Republican (since that party contains so many racists and doesn't fight for issues important to them). The more-conservative Democrat is the obvious choice.
Do I think economic injustice should be at or near the top for every non-1%'er voter, regardless of race. Of course. What progressive wouldn't think that? Not my call to make, though..
In any case, I have to reiterate: the AA vote (jury's out on the Latino vote) was never on the table for Bernie in the first place. Kinda like the young voter demographic isn't for Hillary, regardless of how hard she might try. They don't trust her. It's fucked up that the candidates would seem to have to pick one (and only one)...but it sure looks like that's the way it's gone.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Him and his supporters will make a massive scene at the convention even if he is far behind in pledged delegates.
Codeine
(25,586 posts)He's an honorable, stand-up guy.
His followers, OTOH? Yeah, I could see them getting a little pissy at the convention.
salinsky
(1,065 posts)... Bernie has a hell of a lot more class and sense than many of his supporters display here.
bernie_FTW
(43 posts)California, New York, Oregon, Washington, and other populous states. Bernie is going to pull off the upset.
I KNOW Bernie is going to win the entire west coast.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Whenever someone cites 538 as a reason to think the Sanders campaign is doomed, that's a good time to review the collected genius and wisdom of 538:
Lets Be Serious About Ted Cruz From The Start: Hes Too Extreme And Too Disliked To Win
Ted Cruz Has A Huge Math Problem
The Glass-Half-Empty Case Against Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz Is Just Like Reagan In 1980, Except People Actually Liked Reagan
Ted Cruzs General Election Strategy Is Wishful Thinking
Donald Trumps Six Stages Of Doom
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump Surge Seriously
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
Donald Trump Wont Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
Donald Trump Wont Win A War Against Fox News
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Cant Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner!
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trumps Polls
Why Donald Trump Isnt A Real Candidate
kstewart33
(6,551 posts)No one else came close to that. He also beat all polls in predicting the US Senate outcomes.
He may be occasionally wrong, but his predictions for the next two weeks' races will be right on, with one, maybe two exceptions.
Why? His track record.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Shadowflash
(1,536 posts)Yadda yadda yadda
The primaries aren't over yet.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... Nate could have just asked me and saved himself some time.
actslikeacarrot
(464 posts)...of electing someone who isn't a multi millionaire!