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Mon Mar 7, 2016, 02:06 AM

Hillary has only regional appeal and her model is dependent on low turnout. She can't fix that.

Hillary is winning in the Dixiecrat states. These 13 states compose one of the most anti-Progressive regions in the United States (the Deep South is least supportive of reproductive health liberties, collective bargaining rights, GLBT equality, etc.). Hillary has so far put together a clean sweep of these states because the Clintons rose to power in the Deep South, which is ideologically inclined against the Progressive message of Sanders.

Assume Clinton is insurmountably preferred over Sanders in the 13 states of the Deep South.

Even if Hillary is liked in the Deep South, why is Clinton performing so poorly outside of the Deep South?

This is a problem we need to address before we choose a nominee.

Look at the data behind Sanders' 8 big wins versus Clinton's 3 narrow wins outside the Deep South:

Iowa - Clinton won by 0.3% in a dirty, close race (closest in Iowa's history)

New Hampshire - Sanders won by a wide 22.4% margin

Nevada - Clinton won by 5.3% in a narrower win than her win over Obama in 2008

Colorado - Sanders won by a wide 18.5% margin

Massachusetts - Clinton won dirty by a very narrow 1.4% margin

Minnesota - Sanders won by a wide 23.2% margin

Oklahoma - Sanders won by a wide 10.4% margin

Vermont - Sanders won by a wide 72.5% margin

Kansas - Sanders won by a wide 35.4% margin

Nebraska - Sanders won by a wide 14.2% margin

Maine - Sanders won by a wide 28.8% margin

In a year when the Republican race is setting turnout records, all of Hillary's wins have come in states where Democratic turnout is way down.

In contrast, Sanders has won setting turnout records in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska (which had a huge turnout despite switching from a primary in 2008 to a caucus in 2016), and Maine.

How many states does Hillary have to lose outside of the Deep South and how many races she can win with anemic turnout before we can have an adult discussion about the implications of these results for her electability prospects?


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Reply Hillary has only regional appeal and her model is dependent on low turnout. She can't fix that. (Original post)
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 OP
LonePirate Mar 2016 #1
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #5
putitinD Mar 2016 #8
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #17
jmowreader Mar 2016 #39
Bluenorthwest Mar 2016 #59
Major Hogwash Mar 2016 #43
vdogg Mar 2016 #52
vdogg Mar 2016 #54
Katashi_itto Mar 2016 #2
Nonhlanhla Mar 2016 #3
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #9
Major Hogwash Mar 2016 #44
metroins Mar 2016 #4
SidDithers Mar 2016 #7
metroins Mar 2016 #10
RobertEarl Mar 2016 #22
metroins Mar 2016 #23
RobertEarl Mar 2016 #26
metroins Mar 2016 #27
RobertEarl Mar 2016 #28
metroins Mar 2016 #29
Hortensis Mar 2016 #50
fourcents Mar 2016 #40
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #12
metroins Mar 2016 #14
lumberjack_jeff Mar 2016 #6
MFM008 Mar 2016 #11
BainsBane Mar 2016 #13
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #15
HooptieWagon Mar 2016 #16
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #18
HooptieWagon Mar 2016 #56
BainsBane Mar 2016 #20
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #31
ucrdem Mar 2016 #19
Nye Bevan Mar 2016 #21
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #25
Hekate Mar 2016 #24
RobertEarl Mar 2016 #32
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #34
Garrett78 Mar 2016 #30
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #33
RobertEarl Mar 2016 #35
Vote2016 Mar 2016 #49
Garrett78 Mar 2016 #36
Lorien Mar 2016 #37
Ichingcarpenter Mar 2016 #38
Major Hogwash Mar 2016 #45
Vote2016 Mar 2016 #48
Uncle Joe Mar 2016 #41
Vote2016 Mar 2016 #42
Spitfire of ATJ Mar 2016 #46
Vote2016 Mar 2016 #47
thereismore Mar 2016 #51
DCBob Mar 2016 #53
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #55
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #57
DCBob Mar 2016 #58

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 02:07 AM

1. She is widely predicted to win MI on Tuesday by 10+ points. How does that impact your narrative?

Another dirty win?

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Response to LonePirate (Reply #1)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 02:13 AM

5. We'll see how it turns out. She won Nevada and that's outside the Deep South. I don't expect Sanders

to beat Hillary 30 states to 20 (Obama only beat her 28 states to 22) - I expect her to win more states between today and the convention.

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Response to LonePirate (Reply #1)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 02:16 AM

8. I predict Bernnie wil crush Hillary in Michigan on Tues.

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Response to putitinD (Reply #8)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 02:58 AM

17. Should be close. Sanders is definitely treading.

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Response to putitinD (Reply #8)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 04:25 AM

39. Since you can't even spell his name, what good is your prediction?

I predict Hillary takes Michigan by 50 points and Bernie falls below the 15-percent threshold in Mississippi and leaves the state with no delegates.

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Response to jmowreader (Reply #39)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:42 AM

59. Bernie won Michigan, got 16.5% of Mississippi's very low turnout so you were wrong about all of it.

 

'You're gonna take a walk in the rain and your gonna get wet. I predict.'- Sparks

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Response to LonePirate (Reply #1)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 04:54 AM

43. Wrong! Bernie is ahead by at least 2 points in the last poll.

In fact, he should win by more than 5 points, but since it is only Monday, maybe there is still time for him to open up a wider lead.

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Response to Major Hogwash (Reply #43)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 11:51 AM

52. Hogwash is right

Which poll would you be referring to?

Her lowest is +11. Her highest, out yesterday, is +37. Bernie has never been up in Michigan. Where do you guys get this stuff?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/march8dem.html

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Response to Major Hogwash (Reply #43)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 11:56 AM

54. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

Perhaps you were talking about national polls. Well....
There is one, from mid February, that has Sanders plus 3. One poll has her plus 2, everything else is double digit Clinton lead.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 02:09 AM

2. K&R! Down with 3rd Way, the Vichy Dems

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 02:09 AM

3. And yet she's ahead in pledged delegates

and also ahead in the polls in most of the upcoming states, including large diverse ones.

She wins in more diverse states.

Sounds like a winning coalition to me.

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Response to Nonhlanhla (Reply #3)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 02:16 AM

9. Let's see how the delegates are allocated after the stretch from March 22 to April 9

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #9)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 04:56 AM

44. March 17th is the day that Bernie will become the frontrunner.

St Paddy's Day.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 02:10 AM

4. Oh jeez

I thought about responding in detail, but I'll just let Tuesday do the talking for me.

Please bump your thread after Tuesday night.

Then bump again after FL, OH, PA and other actual GE swing states.

I won't need to type anymore.

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Response to metroins (Reply #4)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 02:15 AM

7. +1...

The analyses of this poster have been "flawed" from the very beginning.

Sid

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Response to SidDithers (Reply #7)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 02:18 AM

10. I almost said I don't blame them

Because I know pretty soon it becomes insurmountable for Bernie to win and some supporters are becoming desperate.

But I do blame the OP for trying to deride Clinton to boost Sanders.

There is nothing to gain by bringing down members of your own party.

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Response to metroins (Reply #10)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 03:12 AM

22. becoming desperate?

 

Shows how little you know.

We have been desperate for a long time. Obama said Hope for Change. Didn't happen.

We are desperate for a clean environment, no more wars, no more black kids getting slaughtered by police, solutions to avert global warming, jobs, clean drinking water, and the list goes on and on.

Anyone who is not desperate is someone not paying attention.

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Response to RobertEarl (Reply #22)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 03:15 AM

23. I'm not desperate at all

My life is going great at the moment.

Statistically, America is better than its been in at least 8 years. I wanted to give a longer number of years but I didn't want to google things.

I'd love an extension of Obama, which is Hillary. Things will continue to go up up up.

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Response to metroins (Reply #23)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 03:19 AM

26. That's what I thought

 

You have yours. Why should you bother your beautiful mind with any body else's problems?

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Response to RobertEarl (Reply #26)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 03:21 AM

27. No biography here

I could post what my wife and I do on a daily basis to help others. (Hint, we own a non profit and my wife has a MS in Social Work).

If you wish to diminish others feel free.

I'm supporting the candidate who will win the Primary, GE and continue the cause. Just like she's done for decades.

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Response to metroins (Reply #27)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 03:25 AM

28. I'm done with you

 

You are on ignore.

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Response to RobertEarl (Reply #28)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 03:27 AM

29. That's ok

You tried to insult me while I kept on the issues. Just remember, you engaged me first.

Enjoy your night.

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Response to metroins (Reply #29)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 11:39 AM

50. Well, March 8, 12 and 15 are rushing upon us.

The "regional" theory will once again be tested.

Now that this is winding down, I'm thinking that the pleasure the righteous warriors on the far left have from styling reality to suit themselves derives not just from the euphoria each seeming victory brings but also from the power it gives them in combat. Truth may set us free, but a virtually endless supply of lies is a virtually endless supply of obviously very satisfying weaponry. What I can't figure is, who would shake helplessly and who would drop the lies like hot potatoes, or which ones, if their lives depended on it. Just don't know.

Whatever, this year's battle-euphoria-crash syndrome is heading for its resolution. And with it finally coming together for a great purpose and *an end to all the candidate bashing.* It will also be nice when the voices of all those Bernie people who want and intend to support The Democratic Nominee are properly heard, instead of too often lost among all the hostilities.

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Response to metroins (Reply #23)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 04:29 AM

40. Yeah Statistically we are headed for another crash and we Dems might get blamed for it .......

 

uh huh Statistically we are headed for another crash and we Dems might get blamed for it, that's a good reason to have Bernie as POTUS not Hillary, which like it or not is the poster child of wall street & the banks.

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Response to metroins (Reply #4)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 02:26 AM

12. I'm not saying Hillary cannot beat Sanders - she's the favorite and he's the underdog. I'm saying

Hillary looks weak in the general election.

She wins in low turnout races predominantly in one anti-Progressive region.

When turnout is high, she loses.

Outside the Deep South, she's won 27% of the contests by narrow wins and lost 73% of the contests by wide margins.

If you think she's going to win the nomination, these numbers should worry you for the general election.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #12)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 02:31 AM

14. Swing states

Literally all that matter in the GE.

Who will win those states?

Let's say by a Miracle, Sanders won CA. Who will CA vote for in the GE? A D, no matter who it is.

Hillary currently has more raw votes than any candidate.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 02:14 AM

6. Worse, that region is irrelevant to the general election. n/t

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 02:22 AM

11. Karl Rove math?

Sanders has only won in caucus states except for 1 i think.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 02:28 AM

13. She'll win Michigan, IL, FL, NY and probably California

and she already has 1.5 million votes more than Bernie. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html?_r=0

Clinton does better in states with more diverse populations and in primary states with greater turnout. Bernie's campaign said a few months ago they were specifically targeting caucus state, which have lower voter turnout. Their strategy is born out in the results we are seeing.

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Response to BainsBane (Reply #13)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 02:42 AM

15. I like her chances in FL. Much will transpire between now and NY so who knows how it will turn out

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #15)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 02:58 AM

16. Florida has a closed primary...

 

...which helps Clinton a lot. She doesn't have to worry about Sanders large Indie support. If it was an open primary, I think Sanders would win.

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Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #16)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 03:00 AM

18. The closed primary phenomenon is a huge boost to the candidate with ZERO appeal to independents

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #18)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 04:46 PM

56. Yes exactly.

 

And with independents outnumbering Ds and Rs, neither party can win with without capturing a majority of Is.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #15)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 03:08 AM

20. Yes, it's still early

but you're mistaken that her appeal is limited to the South. The differences in the states the two candidates won are demographic.

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Response to BainsBane (Reply #20)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 03:46 AM

31. If you factor out the demographics (i.e., compare Deep South whites to Kansas whites or compare Deep

South African America voters to Massachusetts African America voters), there is a noticeable issue where Sanders is under-performing in the Deep South and Hillary is under-performing everywhere else.

Hillary's numbers are so low everywhere, I'm not sure she's winning in the Deep South so much as perhaps Sanders is really not connecting in the Deep South so Clinton's meh performance is carrying her in the Deep South but nowhere else. Hillary 2016 is literally doing worse than Hillary 2008 by a landslide. That's worrisome.

This should be a source of worry for all Democrats.

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Response to BainsBane (Reply #13)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 03:06 AM

19. Definitely CA if its gets that far. Early June.

Short of catastrophe there's no way Bernie could hope to pull out a win which gives his campaign a rather macabre cast which I've thought all along.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 03:11 AM

21. How many women will pull the lever for Donald "blood coming out of her wherever" Trump in the GE,

as opposed to electing the first woman president?

How many minorities will vote for the Donald over Hillary? How many Latinos?

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Response to Nye Bevan (Reply #21)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 03:16 AM

25. Probably just Republicans and independents; young Democrats will probably split between Stein and

Clinton.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 03:15 AM

24. What is it with this "Dixiecrat" crap tonight? Those by definition are white racists who ....

.....went to the GOP thanks to Nixon's Southern Strategy. In those "deep red states" Hillary wins the remaining Democrats, i.e. African Americans and non-racist white Democrats.

What point do you think you are making?

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Response to Hekate (Reply #24)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 03:49 AM

32. SC had 13% turnout

 

What does that tell you?

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Response to RobertEarl (Reply #32)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 04:00 AM

34. 369,240 Democrats voted in South Carolina in 2016. In 2008 532,468 Democrats voted in South Carolina

That's huge in terms of the drop off.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 03:42 AM

30. We're talking about the Democratic electorate.

We're not talking about the likes of David Duke or Jeff Sessions supporters. You can't conflate the Democratic electorate of Louisiana or Georgia with the Republican electorate in those states. Well, you *can* and have, just as many others have...but that doesn't make it right.

The demographics in the Deep South more closely resemble the overall Democratic electorate than do the states Sanders has been winning (Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota, New England states, etc.) and is most likely to win going forward (Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, etc.). I'm tired of having to point out that rather obvious fact, but people keep ignoring that reality.

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #30)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 03:53 AM

33. You are wrong. Deep South Democrats are not as Progressive as Democrats elsewhere. They are more

religious, less accepting of gays and reproductive health liberties, less enthusiastic about unions, etc. We need Democrats of all stripes -- I'm a big tent Democrat. I'm not saying that Deep South Democrats shouldn't get a vote in choosing the nominee (I'm a Texas Democrat), but I'm saying that front loading the Deep South states early in the primary calendar and trying to declare victory based on the less Progressive doing better in the less Progressive states is a recipe for disaster.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #33)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 04:03 AM

35. Front loading the deep south helps conservatives

 

By design.

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Response to RobertEarl (Reply #35)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 10:58 AM

49. The rigging of the calendar to promote a less liberal nominee is definitely a feature, not a bug

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #33)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 04:05 AM

36. You're conflating the Democratic electorate with the overall electorate in the Deep South.

I guess time will tell. Rather, the larger blue and purple states that have yet to vote will tell. Michigan, Illinois, Florida, North Carolina, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, etc.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 04:15 AM

37. It's impossible for her to win a general election, period.

1). She's only winning (by any appreciable margin) States that will go to the GOP candidate

2). Most people are figuring out that Trump is a boogyman created BY the Clintons, for the benefit OF the Clintons (in fact, Hillary fans have been crowing about this). Nobody appreciates being manipulated, and they won't turn out for the person manipulating them.

3). Hillary, having burned her bridges with the "Bernie Bro" bullshittery and the rest of her fans attacks on Bernie supporters, will not have the support of at least half of all Bernie supporters in the Blue and Purple states critical for a Dem win. Bernie is carrying those States by a significant margin.

4). Hillary has ZERO crossover appeal. Though many Repugs may hate the choices that they've been given, they'll gladly turn up to vote against one of the most hated figures in the Dem establishment.


With the MSM's help and scum bag tactics she may with the battle, but she will without a doubt lose the war. So, how many Clinton fans really want a President Trump?

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 04:15 AM

38. I would call it the bible belt vs dixiecrat

Organize evangelistic megachurch religion is strong in the south among all social groups as compared to the rest of the nation. That includes blacks and whites.

Even the bible belt doesn't explain it well but it does better than the dixiecrat label. I think that's called blue dog democrats coalition now, which to me are republicans lite.

kick and nominated.

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Response to Ichingcarpenter (Reply #38)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 04:58 AM

45. How about the "bible belt buckle"?

Sounds reasonable to me.

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Response to Major Hogwash (Reply #45)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 09:53 AM

48. The NASCAR belt?

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 04:30 AM

41. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, Attorney in Texas.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 04:48 AM

42. kicked and rec'd

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 05:05 AM

46. Many of these voters are first timers in a primary too.

 

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Response to Spitfire of ATJ (Reply #46)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 09:28 AM

47. Those new voters aren't with us in November if we fumble this ball by picking Hillary

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 11:51 AM

51. Correct. The divide is age and income. Bernie needs young people's turnout and he is getting it.


MI will be tough. A win would help him with the media, because they are stupid and talk in black-and-white terms. We know that a 1% win is
essentially the same as a 1% loss in terms of delegates, but the media does not care. Luckily, Bernie fans are wise to the media's tricks and don't give a shit.

Today, another $27 to Bernie!

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 11:53 AM

53. You will need to revise this after Tuesday.. then again after March 15th.

Then again.. and again.. and again.

Good luck with all that!

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Response to DCBob (Reply #53)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 01:35 PM

55. I'm sure I will be revising all the way to the convention!

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Response to DCBob (Reply #53)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:43 AM

57. Hillary wins a Deep South state and loses another state outside the Deep South. Not much to revise!

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #57)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 07:02 AM

58. You got it right this time.

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