Where is Bernie's next win?

[oberliner]

Here are the upcoming states:

1. Michigan
2. Mississippi
3. Florida
4. Illinois
5. Missouri
6. North Carolina
7. Ohio

Those are the states between now and March 15th (inclusive). About 1,000 delegates total.

Do folks think Bernie will win any of those states outright?

If so, which one(s)?

Edit to Add: There is also the Northern Marianas caucus on March 15.

[firebrand80]

1. Why do you want to disenfranchise

The Northern Mariana Islands?

[oberliner]

3. Thanks

Added to the list!

[Buzz Clik]

2. Polls:

Michigan: Sanders down 20

Mississippi: Sanders down 30+

Florida: Sanders down 27

Illinois: Sanders down 19 (3 weeks old)

Missouri: (no data)

North Carolina: Sanders down 20

Ohio: Sanders down 8

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster#2016-primaries

Not looking good.

[oberliner]

4. Ohio maybe?

That one could be close.

[Buzz Clik]

5. Ohio should be his wheelhouse. Not quite like New England, but his message should resonate.

But, apparently not.

[Rebkeh]

10. A lot of people don't know who he is

The only other option is a celebrity.

[oberliner]

11. People know who he is

He has been running for president for close to a year and has won numerous states.

[Rebkeh]

13. Most people don't pay attention to politics

At least not in America.

[Svafa]

22. Add the media blackout to that....

[merrily]

33. Are you still claiming to be undecided?

[sufrommich]

6. If Clinton wins big in Michigan,Sanders numbers in Ohio

will shrink. I don't see him winning any of those states.

[Fairgo]

26. Its fun to read this

now

[Chan790]

35. It is.

I never thought I'd say this but "If Sanders can hold tight through March 16 in pledged delegates, it becomes his race to lose."

If he can pull off another couple wins in that time (perhaps OH and MO)...I think we can stick a fork in Clinton; her candidacy will be dead. The rest of the road to Philly looks like a hike up Everest for Hillary if Sanders has the momentum going past mid-March.

[CajunBlazer]

7. The entire month of March looks bleak for Sanders

March Democratic Primaries and Caucuses – Polls and Projections

[marions ghost]

8. He needs to pick up whatever he can in March

so plenty of reason to keep support high as possible, even if not a win.

[seattleite]

58. Washington votes in March.

Hillary's going to get smashed here.

[BainsBane]

12. They seem excited about a 2 point poll lead in the Utah caucuses

I had no problem believing he can carry Utah.

[CajunBlazer]

16. Not really, ....

I am a lot more excited about Hillary's 26 point lead in Michigan, her 44 point lead in Mississippi and her 24 point lead in Florida.

March Democratic Primaries and Caucuses – Polls and Projections

[kenfrequed]

44. Don't look behind you...

One of those three just evaporated.

[CajunBlazer]

49. Don't look forward or behind you

While Sanders did much better than expected in Michigan, the states delegates will essentially be split. That's not good enough for Sanders. He has to start winning a lot of states by at least 60% to 40% margins to gain any lost ground.

He has to do like Hillary did in Mississippi where her 44 point lead in the polls expanded to 62% in the primary meaning that she got 29 of the 36 delegates up for grabs in Mississippi and Sanders got 7 for a 22 point difference. Even with a narrow loss in Michigan Hillary was awarded 58 delegates to Sanders' 65 delegates according to the latest figures for a difference of -7. So yesterday Hillary increased her lead over Sanders by 15 delegates.

And don't forget those pesky super delegates that with Sanders slipping even further behind, remain firmly in Hillary's column.

And let me point out that Sanders received the support of 72% of the "independent" voters while Clinton received the support of a large majority of registered Democrats, meaning that independents were the reasons for Sanders' very narrow win. Let me remind you that Florida is a closed primary.

So crow all you want about the big win in Michigan, but remember that now that the March 8th primaries are over, the net result is that your candidate is even further behind.

[kenfrequed]

50. Uhm

Illinois and Ohio are both open primaries. We only need to hold the line or win or lose by a small amount. (Mayor Rahm Emmanuel isn't going to be very helpful for you guys) These states could swing either way pretty easily.

You guys might get Florida and North Carolina.

After that we have a lot of Bernie favored states leading right up to New York and California.

If Bernie pulls ahead in regular delegate count of Hillary those Superdelegates are going to read the writing on the wall, identify where the heaviest turn outs and enthusiasm has been, and switch.



I will grant you that this outcome is not certain. But Hillary is no longer a sure thing and she cannot take any states for granted again.

[CajunBlazer]

54. How is Sanders going to catch up...

...if he doesn't start winning states by large margins. He can't catch up wining states by a few percentage points. Clinton could tie Sanders in each of the remaining states and still lead by more than 200 delegates and win on the first vote at the convention. That's where all of those Super Delegates come into to play.

So which states are you predicting that Sanders will win by margins like 70% to 30% or at least by 60% to 40%?

[kenfrequed]

57. Wait and see... primary season isn't over.

There will be states after the 15th that are going to favor him. Washington, Oregon, and California are going to be good for Bernie as long as he hangs in close in Ohio and Illinois.

[Lizzie Poppet]

14. This is why a lot of people have predicted Bernie doesn't start closing the gap unti after the 15th.

Whether he'll be in too deep a hole is the question. The corporate media being all-in for Hillary might make the difference, as just enough Bernie voters lose hope in the face of a constant barrage of "Hillmentum" propaganda and marginalizing of Bernie's issues.

[DCBob]

15. Idaho.. probably.

maybe.

[oberliner]

18. I think he wins Idaho and the 4 caucuses that follow

Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington are all states he can win, but I think he will lose all the contests leading up to those.

[NCTraveler]

17. Reelection for Senate in the Great State of Vermont.

He is a shoe-in.

[Analytics_American]

19. Bernie's previous wins v. his next wins...

Check out the data from the last 50 years; upcoming states have an awful lot of importance.

50 years of election results are not insignificant, and as our access to data grows exponentially, our ability to decipher it becomes more and more detrimental!

Analytics@American created this infographic illustrating the states' accuracy in predicting the eventual nominee. The blog post also provides more insight into caucus and primary season.

https://onlinebusiness.american.edu/blog/presidential-primary-predictions/

[Kali]

20. welcome to DU - friendly advice/reminder

posting multiple times about your blog may get you in trouble for spamming. you are free to put a blurb and a link in your signature line instead.

[John Poet]

21. When is the next F.B.I. leak about Hillary going to come?

I'm not a prophet.. either...

[oberliner]

24. Haven't they released all the emails?

Or is there more to come?

[Persondem]

23. Idaho, possibly Utah, with MO an outside chance. Clinton gets the rest. K & R nt

[oberliner]

25. Very impressed that he won Michigan

If he can win the states this Tuesday then the revolution is on for sure.

[Joe the Revelator]

27. Put me on the record: Bernie is going to win Ohio.

[Vinca]

28. I think he could pull out Ohio since his trade policy message is getting through.

Forget the states that traditionally vote Republican - they go to Hillary.

[Recursion]

29. I'd say MO and OH are in play. (nt)

[merrily]

32. Even with mouthy McCaskill?

[Armymedic88]

30. Ohio by 2, Missouri by 12, and a delegate tie in North Carolina

[oberliner]

42. What do you think it will look like in Florida and Illinois?

Do you think those could be close?

[Armymedic88]

43. I think in Illinois Bernie can get within 10 points and in Florida I see 12-15 point win for Clinton

[kenfrequed]

45. Depends

How much of a factor will Rahm Emmanuel be?

I suspect he will be hiding under his desk or away for vacation during the race.

[Armymedic88]

47. If Bernies close in Illinois it's over for Clinton I believe

[ieoeja]

59. Rahm is a non-factor. Democratic Committeemen run Chicago.

And the Democratic Committeemen have slated Hillary. Personally, I have yet to meet a Hillary supporter in Chicago. And I have seen only one Hillary sign. But I don't doubt the city will go for Hillary anyway because lots of Democrats in Chicago vote the slate.

The suburbs are also probably a lock for Hillary. Suburbs are the core constituency of Third-Wayers.

Bernie should win "downstate". But that is a pretty small percentage of the vote.

[kenfrequed]

60. Turnout is a factor

I was talking about the primary and whether Rahm will be a bit of an albatross for Hillary.

[merrily]

31. Why are you stopping at March 15? Primaries and Bernie will go until June.

[oberliner]

34. I didn't think he would win any states between the day I posted and 3/15

I was very impressed by his victory yesterday in Michigan. The sky is the limit at this point.

[merrily]

36. That's exactly why I thought you made 3/15 the cutoff--because you didn't think he could win any.

crappy tactics

Same for "outright win"

[oberliner]

37. Yes, that was the point of the question

Could he win any of the primaries that were coming up in the next week. The answer was a resounding yes! I am very bullish on his chances at this point to say the least. I look forward to having the opportunity to vote for him myself next month.

[Motown_Johnny]

38. Bwahahahaha !!!!! n/t

[oberliner]

40. Bernie really has something special going on

His win in Michigan was amazing.

I now expect him to go on a run that will culminate in him getting the nomination.

[PonyUp]

39. I keep hearing Hillary will win here in NC, but I haven't seen any support for her here. n/t

[oberliner]

41. Good point

I think Bernie could take NC along with Ohio and Missouri.

[kenfrequed]

46. The Hill will probably take North Carolina

And she will probably take Missouri as well. Ohio... well that is a bit open. The mayor of Chicago will be a factor.

[oberliner]

48. No she won't

She was only leading by 10 points in February. The momentum is with Bernie. He has opened numerous campaign offices across the state and will be making several appearances there in the coming days. The more people get to know him, the more he wins.

[Ferd Berfel]

51. WOrking hard to make it Illinios

[scscholar]

52. I'm still waiting on the media to report...

his last win!

[oberliner]

55. It's been reported on extensively

I'm not sure how you missed it.

[scscholar]

56. The only thing I've seen the past 12 hours about it...

has been about how they're taking even more delegates from Sanders. Taking more delegates.

[cherokeeprogressive]

53. In the bag?

[MineralMan]

61. I don't know. We'll find out.

Neither candidate will win any of them with 100% of the vote. All will allocated delegates according to the voting percentage of primary voters. Each state will allocate delegates to both candidates.

We will see, on March 16, how the elections went, as always, the day after the election. Then, we won't have to guess. We'll have our answer.

If you live in one of those states, please go and vote.