Why Bernie can't win. Probably. Maybe.

[HassleCat]

Right up front, I am a Sanders supporter, and I want him to be our nominee, no matter what the consequences. If he does gain the nomination, there is the possibility of a very bad outcome in the general election.

It's nothing the Republicans could do to him. The clown car is in the ditch very deep, and there's no sign of a tow truck on the horizon. The death blow would come from inside our party. Remember, this is a struggle for the heart and soul of the Democratic Party. Sanders calls it a revolution, and the DNC doesn't know what to call it, but they realize allowing Sanders to win the presidency would end the nice deal they have going for themselves, derail their gravy train, push many of them into obscurity, make the whole third way strategy look bogus, and generally turn the established party structure inside out. This is exactly what many of us would like to see, and exactly what the third way wing of the party, meaning many Democrats, cannot allow.

Am I suggesting a significant number of Democrats would work to make sure Sanders loses the general election? Damn right I am. When push comes to shove, their personal well being is more important than the presidency, federal judges, foreign policy, immigration reform, police and justice reform, or anything else. Who are they, and how many of them are there? I don't know, but I remember Eugene McCarthy campaigning for Ronald Reagan against Jimmy Carter in 1980, and I don't even know what Carter did to anger McCarthy. Whatever it was, it was small potatoes compared to the anger and frustration many Democrats would feel if they lost control of the party to an "avowed socialist." There would be enough of them to pose a serious threat of defeating Sanders in the general election, in order to discredit the Sanders revolution and regain control of the party.

What might save Sanders in the face of such an insiders' coup? Independents and disenchanted Republicans. Many people are angry at the system that keeps giving them what they consider as a choice between Tweedledee and Tweedledum. They would vote for Sanders simply because he is neither of those. It would be scary, but it would be interesting. And it might be exactly what we need to put an end to these political dynasties we get so often.

[RobertEarl]

1. More recently

The establishment of the Democratic party abandoned Al Gore

[ladjf]

2. What was your reason for posting your piece?

It may or may not be true. But, why make discouraging remarks about the amazing Sander's chances?

I suggest you hold off awhile. If he loses, then enlighten us.

[HassleCat]

5. My post will only be relevant if he wins.

Which I hope he does. If so, we will have to be ready for some Democrats to torpedo his candidacy.

[ladjf]

6. Well, perhaps I should have studied your post more carefully. nt

[BainsBane]

3. No need to make it so convoluted

He won't win for one simple reason: He can't attract enough voters to win the nomination. He currently trails by 1.5 million votes, and the electoral map is becoming less favorable to him.

By the end of 3/15, 51.14% of delegates will be awarded. I don't know of a single state he is favored in between now and then. (He could conceivably win the Marianas Islands and Democrats abroad, but we don't have polling on them and their delegate counts are tiny.)
There would need to be a dramatic game changer to disrupt current electoral patterns. He certainly didn't accomplish that last night.

https://ballotpedia.org/2016_presidential_nominations:_calendar_and_delegate_rules
http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-primaries
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-republican/

[msanthrope]

4. Pesky numbers. nt

[HassleCat]

7. That electoral map

My understanding is that Sanders is moving into territory more favorable for him. Super Tuesday was supposed to be the Clinton firewall, and it was supposed to be all over by then. Moving out of the south could deprive Clinton of the lopsided victories she wants to speed up her push for the nomination.

[BainsBane]

8. Like where?

What numbers support your claim? (See the links I edited in above).

[BainsBane]

9. I can see his sweeping 3/22

Winning Washington State and Wyoming, but that won't be nearly enough to overcome the huge deficit he'll have by that point.

[basselope]

10. Presuming Trump is the GOP nominee.. the gravy train ends either way.

Trump (For all his many, many, MANY MANY faults) doesn't appear to be a fan of Citizen's United and Super Pacs and buying politicians.

So you have some interesting problems the democrats are facing.

Clinton/(probably Casto) can't beat a Trump/Kasich ticket (which is what it will be). She just CAN'T get the Youth to turn out in the numbers necessary. You will see Democratic turnout numbers lower than 2012.

So if Trump wins, the gravy train ends.

So, what if Sanders is the nominee... the gravy train ends.. but AT LEAST it would end on their own terms.