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Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:03 PM

 

Current pledged delegate count: Hillary +221

Last edited Sat Mar 12, 2016, 04:28 PM - Edit history (1)

Gotta love when a "good night for Bernie" still results in Hillary winning more delegates and popular vote than Bernie. With Dems allocating delegates evenly, this means Bernie will have to win 55% of all remaining delegates in every state, plus the superdels. Nearly impossible.



Forward 2016!

UPDATED: Hillary won 4 additional delegates overnight in Northern Mariana Islands.

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Arrow 32 replies Author Time Post
Reply Current pledged delegate count: Hillary +221 (Original post)
JaneyVee Mar 2016 OP
Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #1
JaneyVee Mar 2016 #2
TTUBatfan2008 Mar 2016 #14
JaneyVee Mar 2016 #19
Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #20
rock Mar 2016 #25
Number23 Mar 2016 #29
oasis Mar 2016 #3
JaneyVee Mar 2016 #5
Gwhittey Mar 2016 #10
oasis Mar 2016 #13
Lucinda Mar 2016 #4
JaneyVee Mar 2016 #6
DemRace Mar 2016 #7
JaneyVee Mar 2016 #16
Fearless Mar 2016 #8
JaneyVee Mar 2016 #24
Ferd Berfel Mar 2016 #9
Gwhittey Mar 2016 #12
JaneyVee Mar 2016 #17
Ferd Berfel Mar 2016 #21
JaneyVee Mar 2016 #26
CorkySt.Clair Mar 2016 #31
Beacool Mar 2016 #22
NCTraveler Mar 2016 #11
SCantiGOP Mar 2016 #15
TTUBatfan2008 Mar 2016 #18
DLnyc Mar 2016 #23
jeepers Mar 2016 #27
Number23 Mar 2016 #28
brooklynite Mar 2016 #30
JaneyVee Mar 2016 #32

Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:05 PM

1. Apparently Bernie was able to net 4 delegates out of Michigan, but

 

Hillary was able to net 28 out of Mississippi.

So a good night for Bernie is actually a loss.

That's kinda sad.

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:09 PM

2. And that's only the 2nd time Bernie...

 

Reached his delegate target. He needed 67 and Hillary only needed 63 and they both reached their targets. Hillary has overperformed her delegate targets in every state except VT. Bernie only met his target in VT and MI and never exceeded it yet.

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:28 PM

14. He won't win...

...but he's doing a hell of a lot better than HRC or anyone else expected him to. Nothing sad about a guy going from 5% in the polls to actually winning quite a few states.

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Response to TTUBatfan2008 (Reply #14)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:38 PM

19. I agree.

 

And his win in MI actually gave me a sigh of relief knowing that if by some miracle he is our nominee we may still be able to defeat Trump. Although personally I believe would beat Bernie. Americans seem to like xenophobia, big walls, and low taxes. Bernie would be painted as a tax raising amnesty lover.

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Response to TTUBatfan2008 (Reply #14)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:46 PM

20. Bernie has done very well

 

We should all be proud of him.

He's a good guy.

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Reply #20)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 07:51 PM

25. +1

I'll second that!

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Response to TTUBatfan2008 (Reply #14)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 09:47 PM

29. Well said.

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Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:11 PM

3. Hill needs to wrap this thing up so the President and First Lady can

begin campaigning with her. A clean sweep next Tuesday should get her closer to that call from the White House.

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Response to oasis (Reply #3)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:14 PM

5. Trump already pivoted to the GE

 

And he's only up by 99 delegates.

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Response to oasis (Reply #3)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:21 PM

10. No she needs to wrap it up

 

Before Woodward and Bernstein publish their articles.

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Response to Gwhittey (Reply #10)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:28 PM

13. Are they still around?

Hot of the press: Debate Recessgate.

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Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:13 PM

4. Ah math! How I love thee.

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Response to Lucinda (Reply #4)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:16 PM

6. She could lose the next 15 by close margins and still win.

 

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Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:17 PM

7. I don't think your 65% is correct. This online delegate calculator gives some insight.

http://DemRace.com I think he needs just under 54% to have a majority of pledged delegates. So Sanders would need to get 8% more delegates than Clinton for the rest of the race.

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Response to DemRace (Reply #7)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:32 PM

16. Sorry, meant 55%. Tiny buttons on this phone.

 

Will edit. Thanks for noticing.

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Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:19 PM

8. 54%. He needs to win 54%.

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Response to Fearless (Reply #8)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 07:41 PM

24. I edited.

 

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Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:20 PM

9. Keeping in mind that the primary schedule was set up

By


to favor Hillary early on..... I'll wait a while before I get too bet out of shape

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Reply #9)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:24 PM

12. Not primary schedule

 

But the debate schedule was. The primary schedule was done back a bit to favor a centrist more like Clinton. DWS had nothing to do with this one at least.

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Reply #9)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:34 PM

17. Uh no it wasnt. It was set up far in advance.

 

You might be thinking of debate schedule, which all campaigns work on and agree to.

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #17)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:48 PM

21. of course they never knew she was running at that time

I guess...

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Reply #21)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 09:07 PM

26. You made the claim.

 

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #26)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 11:15 PM

31. A ludicrous claim

 

The poster is saying that 50 separate state party organizations coalesced around Hillary 2 years ago -- in secrecy -- to develop a plan for her to beat an unknown opponent by gaming the primary schedule.






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Response to Ferd Berfel (Reply #9)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:51 PM

22. No, it wasn't.

You must mean the debate schedule, not the primary schedule. Sanders hadn't even announced he was running for president when the primary schedule was made public.

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Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:22 PM

11. I can't wait to see Trump cry. Clinton is going to hand him his ass. nt.

 

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Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:30 PM

15. The Michigan MIRACLE

In dozens of threads on DU (most with allcaps and a lot of WOW WOW WOWs) I have read about the "Michigan Miracle."

Look at the numbers: Sanders got 67 delegates, for a net gain of 4.
On that same night in Mississippi Clinton had a net gain of 28.
In Texas alone, she had netted an additional 74 delegates.

I hate to use math to diminish groundless optimism, but reality has a way of doing that.

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Response to SCantiGOP (Reply #15)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:35 PM

18. Both are true...

...he did pull a miracle. Every prediction was that he would lose Michigan by double digits at a minimum and 20+ seemed likely. Nate Silver predicted a 22.5% win for Clinton and said she had more than 99% chance overall to win the state.

But it's also true that Sanders got destroyed in Mississippi and the proportional system means that the "win" in Michigan was pretty much a tie (similar to the Iowa win for Hillary). Adds up to a pretty big delegate loss for Sanders on the evening, though it could have been a heck of a lot worse if you look at all those Michigan polls.

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Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 06:52 PM

23. Of course, it was also "nearly impossible" that he would win Michigan!

So we'll see. Objectively, I would say the race for a majority of the pledged delegates is too close to call at this point.

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Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 09:18 PM

27. hooray for team Hillary

I am sure the super delegates will be thrilled with her nine state 450 delegate win in those southern states that we haven't got a chance in hell of getting even 1 electoral vote from. If not, surely those three squeakers in the blue states will make them forget those 9 blue states that other guy soundly beat you in.

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Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 09:46 PM

28. She should be quite happy with things continuing just as they have been

Sanders wins tiny, rural, fairly homogenous states or ones with open primaries that allow independents and Republicans to vote.

Hillary wins huge, diverse states whose primaries are closed to only Democrats. She's got a pretty strong winning strategy right now.

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Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Thu Mar 10, 2016, 10:36 PM

30. Some people here have suggested that MI indicates Sanders will take everything on 3/15...

...except that taking everything isn't enough. Even if it happens (which I still think is unlikely), he has to win by LARGE margins to offset Clinton's existing delegate balance. Winning MI with 49.8% isn't a sign of a significant voter shift.

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Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Sat Mar 12, 2016, 04:29 PM

32. Kick for update.

 

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