2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhy Independent Voters Will Propel Bernie Sanders to the White House
This is a response to the thread posted here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511488187
Indy's decide elections and despite Hillary leading *among* Democrats, there is no path to the White House with only Dem support. Hillary basically has no crossover support and this is why she loses a General Election. Bernie on the other hand does and why he wins a General Election. When you look at open primary states, who wins? Bernie.
http://usuncut.com/politics/independent-voters-bernie/
Independent voters are the largest political force in the US. And in this election cycle, anyone who wants to win the presidency has to win their support. Likewise, any candidate who doesnt poll well with independents has statistical chance of becoming president.
For several years now, the numbers of voters who identify themselves as independent of either the Democrats or Republicans has been steadily rising, while the numbers of self-identifying Democrats and Republicans are at historic lows.
By 2015, only 30 percent of voters called themselves Democrats, and only 26 percent identified as Republican. By January 2016, only 29 percent of voters allied with the Democratic Party. Those who call themselves independents now make up 42 to 43 percent of the electorate. Indeed, if there was an Independent Party that grouped in all of these voters under one umbrella, that party would be unstoppable.
marions ghost
(19,841 posts)Do Dem party people not KNOW this?
REALLY took off after '08--tells ya something.
roguevalley
(40,656 posts)we're majority indie in alaska and bernie is leading by 14 points. Insult indies to your peril
marions ghost
(19,841 posts)of what you say ...later
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)don't get to determine the Democratic nominee.
cyberpj
(10,794 posts)Doesn't seem quite fair to me.
WhiteTara
(29,699 posts)otherwise it is moot.
peacebird
(14,195 posts)I don't see her getting them to the polls in the general election
roguevalley
(40,656 posts)Land of Enchantment
(1,217 posts)The electorate has been shifting over the past few years and the goofy polls do not reflect it. I got banned from all the Hillary group's threads on my second or third post on DU because I was new and didn't understand the 'group' did not permit historical information regarding how the Clintons ran on the left to get to the GE then swung so far to the right in the GE that it made heads spin and predicted that would not change. Oh well. I am concerned if Hillary actually wins the primary she will be CRUSHED in the GE for a couple of reasons. She is not attracting new voters. Her base in the democratic party is diminishing daily as Bernie becomes better known. She loses big time to Bernie when it comes to open primary states where Independents can vote. I have concerns the millennials will not turn out to vote for her in the GE. The RNC has been 'loaded for bear' for her for years and some of the disgusting videos out there about her 'record' are undoubtedly created by republicans.
dana_b
(11,546 posts)And yes, I'm an independent.
Faux pas
(14,657 posts)Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)That's an exercise in futility.
We're supposedly nominating someone FOR the General, and yet we strongly tend to nominate someone who can't win it (because of party influence and front-loading the Southern states). Really brilliant.
Land of Enchantment
(1,217 posts)and have had it with holding my nose in the GE. I could not agree with you more. Thanks.
peacebird
(14,195 posts)Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Samantha
(9,314 posts)Last edited Tue Mar 15, 2016, 12:11 AM - Edit history (1)
So I am not sure what the percentage is now, but I believe it should be higher. That mix of Democratic votes (less than Hillary's often) combined with the high number of Independents and the cross-over of some Republican voters (generally he gets 25 percent of the Republican vote in his Vermont races) is exactly the recipe for a Sanders' win. It is also what 538 and other pollsters have not perceived when posting their expectations. Looks like their eyes are wide open now....
Sam
Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)randome
(34,845 posts)Isn't the reverse true? That Sanders can't win the primary without Democratic voters? And as has already been pointed out, in many states, Independents can't vote for a Democratic nominee. Which is pretty much how it needs to be, otherwise you'd have Republicans voting in our weakest candidate. (Yes, I know some of us think that's Clinton but right now she obviously has more Democratic party support.)
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