Trending Sanders: YouGov Illinois poll +2%; PPP Missouri poll +1%; Baldwin University Ohio poll +1%!

[Attorney in Texas]

YouGov poll in Illinois - Sanders +2 (48% to 46%) in a state where Hillary has a 42% lead a week ago according to Research America Inc.

Public Policy Polling in Missouri - Sanders +1 (47% to 46%) in a state where Hillary has a 28% lead according to PPP's prior Missouri poll.

Baldwin Wallace University poll in Ohio - Sanders +1 (45% to 44%) in a state where Hillary had a 30% lead a week ago according to Opinion Research Corporation.

This trend in the polling is staggering!

Obviously, there are other polls out there (for example, the McKeon & Associates poll in Illinois shows Hillary up 1% at 31% to 30%; RABA Research poll in Missouri shows Hillary up 4% at 44% to 40%; both the Public Policy Polling and Quinnipiac show Hillary up 5% (46% to 41% and 51% to 46%, respectively), but Sanders has been smashing his polling numbers when the real votes are counted and Hillary has been falling far short of her polling-based expectations.

Keep donating! Keep phone banking! Keep winning!

[pdsimdars]

1. All the trending is in the same direction -- only a matter of time

Thanks for posting

[CajunBlazer]

14. In case you have noticed - there is no more time.

People have been voting in most of those state for more than a week.

[SheilaT]

15. Do you think that polling is taking account of those who have already voted?

[CajunBlazer]

34. You would think that it would, but I don't know for sure

[SheilaT]

37. It would be interesting to find out in the end

if the percentages are different for early voters as compared to election day voters.

[CajunBlazer]

38. I'll bet it is

Sanders has been poring a lot of money into those state. For him is do or die time.

[SusanCalvin]

22. Yeah, I think the Bernie campaign has been forgetting about early voting.

They sure did in Texas.

[kenfrequed]

24. Hmm

Sounds a bit odd saying something like that. I mean, it probably is going to be fairly close either way. But saying "there is no more time..." makes you sound less analytical and more like a comic book supervillain.

I mean, where does this mindstate come from?

[CajunBlazer]

36. It comes from the fact that:

1) A lot of people have already voted

2) The primaries in question are tomorrow

So, literally there is no more time to change anyone else's mind. So, if in indeed the race in three states is tightening, there is no more time for them to tighten further; those primaries are upon us.

However, let's say that Bernie actually closed the gap in three states and not FL and NC - then he is in still in big trouble because he is not catching up, he is getting further behind. How's that for being analytical.

[kenfrequed]

50. Except...

Ohio and Illinois are worth more.


And you are oddly assuming that Hillary people are the only people voting early.

[CajunBlazer]

53. They won't be worth more if the candidates "virtually tie" and...

the Hillary and Bernie split the delegates virtually even. They will be just two big squandered opportunities to gain more delegates than Hillary and shorten her lead. After tomorrow their will be only two big opportunities left - New York and California.

In addition if Bernie and Hillary virtually split the delegates of the mid-western states and Hillary wins big in NC and FL, pilling up still more delegates, Bernie will have to start winning every remaining state by 65% or more to have any chance of catching Hillary. Good luck with that task.

Bottom line; Bernie can afford to win Ohio, Illinois and Missouri tonight, he needs to win them big or Hillary will add more delegate to her already almost insurmountable lead. Good luck with that task also.

[Jitter65]

45. "fairly close" won't be good enough to close the delegate gap for Sanders. nt

[kenfrequed]

51. I think he will probably pick up pledged delegates if we are lucky

I also think he has a lot of states coming up after today where his numbers are far better. A lot of Bernie supporters were already looking sort of despondently at the 15th a few weeks ago when we were thirty points down all around so no one had figured that we would be narrowing the gap so quickly.

[Bucky]

2. I do hope the stronger candidate gets nominated.

A big win will be a big deal.

[Punkingal]

3. Yikes!

This is good news.

[mathewsleep]

4. YouGov had Clinton +11 in Michigan before the primary

Does this mean that Sanders will win with 56% to 44%?

PPP had Clinton +10.

Hopefully another big Sanders win then.

Both states are open primaries, correct?

[Attorney in Texas]

6. I think all three states will be coin-toss close. I have a hunch Sanders will take at least 2 of 3,

but that's only a hunch and he could narrowly win all three or she could narrowly win all three. We'll just have to wait and see.

[Tiggeroshii]

27. If turnout is through the roof in all 5 states, we win all five

And pretty much game over after that.

[kenfrequed]

52. Eh...

I would love to believe that could happen, but I doubt we will take North Carolina. I think we will be closer in Florida but the elderly population presents a demographic challenge to Bernie since Hillary has a distinct advantage in the over 50 crowd.

I think we have a really decent shot at Illinois, Ohio, and Missouri.

[Jarqui]

5. I do not think I've ever seen anything quite like this

You might see a big swing from something really bad happening to candidate (sex scandal, some sort of a charge or serious allegation, etc). But to my knowledge, that hasn't happened here. Hillary got called out on a few of her lies .... but she's been lying her head off for years so that to me, isn't exactly news.

A week ago, we were looking a major deficits for Sanders in all but one of these states (roughly 20-40 pts) and we had no recent poll for Missouri (-28% last August). Now, it looks like just Florida and North Carolina but even there, the deficit has been reduced.

In a week, he's reduced the gap more than 100 delegates of the projected difference from the poll average. To do that over five states in that short of a period of time is Michigan-like if it holds.

I'm a little cautiously stunned - kind of find it hard to believe what I'm seeing in poll after poll but because of Michigan and poll after poll, it's hard to ignore.

If Sanders pulls this off tomorrow, the chances of him winning the primary will significantly improve.

This could be getting a little wild.

[demwing]

7. Michigan showed the Queen has no clothes

A lot of people were staggered by the MI results, and forced to reassess whether Clinton wears a cloak of inevitability, or one of illusion.

[Jarqui]

8. I thought after what she did in 2008, more would be able to see through

the "cloak of inevitability"

I think someone posted this not too long ago ... to the effect of: "somethings goin' on"

I'm pinching myself a little because I'm wondering if they were right.

[grasswire]

26. we are watching history, Jarqui

The American people are speaking.

And the trend keeps going up, up, up on the trajectory.

[Jarqui]

31. I agree about the trend

I was always confident he would would keep rising in the polls against Hillary.

The big question for me has always been "does he have enough time overtake her in the polls soon enough?"

With what has been going on over the last couple of weeks, it's getting harder to say it's not possible - rather than easier (which is really good for Bernie because I think they were going to hiss for him to withdraw after tomorrow).

If he can stay close to her after tomorrow night, Hillary has a real problem and they'll know it.

[closeupready]

9. Subtract 20% from his advantage, and voila, Nate Silver's numbers!

[jalan48]

10. And this even with the DNC's dirty tricks.

[LiberalArkie]

11. I worry about Illinois and the old Daley machine. Bernie could have a million votes and HRC 0

and HRC could win by 75% of the vote.

[zentrum]

13. I do too.

From Daley straight throughout to Emanuel.

[LiberalArkie]

35. Probably going back to Capone in Chicago. The machine here in Arkansas goes back to

the mob era gambling in Hot Springs and the Faubus admin.

[zentrum]

39. That's fascinating.

I'm sure you're right. Had no idea about Arkansas. Though I know what a fiendish segregationist Faubus was.

What guano we were taught in American History in school.

[Art_from_Ark]

40. I had an Arkansas history class in 6th grade

That was a few years after the end of the Faubus era (1955-67)-- yet our textbook only briefly mentioned Faubus as the "newly-elected governor of Arkansas".

[zentrum]

41. I'm speechless

And none of us were ever taught anything about the history of labor and the terrible violence that occurred as they organized and tried to secure a few protections and benefits.

I was taught the history of New York City and the only mention made of the native peoples who lived here was that they sold the Island of Manhattan to Peter Stuyvesant for $24. worth of wampum. That was all that was taught about it and I would say that that little teaching had some implicit contempt in it about how simple minded the "Indians" were to have done that. And nothing was taught about the waves of immigrants that came later and how each new group was treated pretty much like Trump wants to treat immigrants now. And absolutely nothing about the slave auctions that took place on Wall Street and how so much of the city's wealth was based on Southern slave labor and cotton. We were just taught about the "good abolitionists" and nothing about the original great fortunes being slave based.

[Art_from_Ark]

43. I will say this about our Arkansas History textbook

It did devote a chapter or two to Native Americans-- particularly the Caddo, Osage and Quapaw nations-- which I found fascinating. It even covered the Cherokee Trail of Tears. However, I don't remember if it devoted much space to slavery.

The textbook was finally retired with my class year. The 6th graders who came after me got a (presumably) updated textbook

[CajunBlazer]

12. That will work for Clinton

Split the pledged delegates for three states while she piles up more delegates in Florida in NC. Net - Hillary pulls still further ahead with five less states to contest. Ding, ding, ding - day winner.

When are you guy going realize that in order for Bernie to gain any ground on Hillary he has to not just win states, but win them BIG!

[SheilaT]

16. I keep on reading that after tomorrow the states still left

favor Bernie by a lot.

It looks as if he'll more or less pull a Michigan in at least three states, in in Florida and NC he'll still do better than expected. After that, look out Hillary!

[Helen Borg]

17. If the media were truthful and rational...

Bernie would be up +25% everywhere!

[NCTraveler]

46. Lol + 1 nt

[senz]

47. Yes, if the MSM were fair, people would have known Bernie much sooner

and his leads would be all the greater.

She has had ALL the advantages.

He just has himself, his message, and us.

[Fuddnik]

18. LETS ROLL!!!!!!!!

Yeah, it deserves caps. I voted Bernie in Florida a month ago.

[Roland99]

19. Do IL, MO, and OH all have open primaries?

That helps Bernie a lot as he's bringing in Independents. We're a closed Primary here in FL which will help Hillary.

I like this set of polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

Bernie wins against ALL GOP candidates. Hillary only against Trump (but more narrowly than Sanders).

If *I* was a "superdelegate", I'd be taking that greatly into consideration!!

[Attorney in Texas]

21. Fuck yeah they do!!!

[Roland99]

23. "Excellent!"

in my best Wayne's World voice

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

25. We're not worthy!!!!!

[dpatbrown]

20. I'm so glad,

that I'm not a Clinton supporter, because even they see a snowball coming down the mountain, one they can not stop. No matter what they try. Like so many of you, this is darn exciting. WOW!

[Fawke Em]

48. LOL

[TIME TO PANIC]

28. K & R!

[Enthusiast]

29. Kicked and recommended a whole bunch!

[turbinetree]

30. Feel the Bern..........................

just donated some moola to help with our cause for the political revolution



Honk---------------------for the political revolution Bernie 2016

[dchill]

32. K&R!

[Uncle Joe]

33. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, Attorney in Texas.

[John Poet]

42. NICE!

GO BERNIE!!!

[Ruby the Liberal]

44. I wonder what adjustments they made after Michigan

Lets hope they didn't overcorrect. Looking for a yuuuuge day tomorrow!

[Vote2016]

49. kicked and rec'd

[Renew Deal]

54. Polls were wrong

[brooklynite]

55. Those were probably "corporate polls"

[Renew Deal]

56. Aren't they all?