2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary would most certainly beat Frankentrump and here is why:
She would overwhelmingly win: minorities, women, millenials, progressives, and centrists. It is that simple. Under OLD demographics, even a divisive piece of vile filth like Trump could win with a hard and fast white, christian, and mostly male base. NOT ANYMORE! Minorities make up a THIRD or more of the electorate now. Without them, you don't win the presidency. The R's have doomed themselves with years of driving their base to the crazy right wing, and they are now reaping what they have sown.
revbones
(3,660 posts)Edited to add that she also doesn't do anything for independents
Jarqui
(10,123 posts)against Sanders.
And you'd like a candidate that can draw a few Republicans .... Sanders does better with them as well.
The general polls are pretty close between the two of them head to head. Last December, I went state by state and Trump definitely had the advantage though not enough that sealed it. Rubio clobbered her - almost no contest on a state by state basis but I'm sure that has tightened up with his robotic performance.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Cleita
(75,480 posts)The GOP will not let him run and he's pretty much self-immolating right now. Look to Kasich as the nominee.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)He actually sounds reasonable at times and I would think he wins Ohio. Lets hope the Republicans are not smart enough to elect him.
The circus is winding down and Kasich actually sounds like a plausible candidate (which he isn't, but compared to the rest of the circus...)
Cleita
(75,480 posts)He just carries it better.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)I also think Kasich is going to end up being the nominee - Trump is great as a circus ringmaster, but not as a world leader.
Brawls at his rally's just emphasizes that there is nothing serious and lasting going on there.
Cleita
(75,480 posts)If that happens, you can be sure Trump won't be the candidate.
Firebrand Gary
(5,044 posts)Bleacher Creature
(11,256 posts)I made the same exact point yesterday and met with a deluge of replies regurgitating all of the typical anti-Clinton garbage. Her strategy is clear. Recreate the Obama coalition and we win. Having a candidate on the other side like Trump just makes it easier.
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)libtodeath
(2,888 posts)That is the unknown with Hillary.
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)Aerows
(39,961 posts)crash and burn. It has pretty much already started.
delrem
(9,688 posts)I'd be very interested in hearing an unedited recording of what Bill and Donald spoke of, when they discussed Donald Trump's prospects as an R candidate two weeks before he announced that he was running. All I hear tho' is how Bill spoke encouraging words to his friend and confidante.
However, I don't think Trump will be the nominee. The R's will figure some way to put a more "moderate" candidate to the front, and Hillary Clinton will get blown out of the water. You want to know why I think that? The answer is written in Hillary's campaign and is seen on DU every day, in the unrelenting ratfucking of "white progressives" as racist/sexist/misogynist/etc "Berniebros", in effect ratfucking the entire progressive/liberal-left base, or at least those who can read. It's written in how that ratfucking is followed by incessant "loyalty oath" threads, counter-intuitively woven into a tapestry next to "Hillary Clinton doesn't need independent voters", "Hillary Clinton doesn't need progressive voters", threads, often by the same posters, unable to see the contradiction because they're following a BrockPAC driven Rovian smear machine. That'll be damn hard to walk back, RBInMaine, and no matter if you prefer to deny it's happened, there's nobody who's been object of such Rovian attacks who will forget it.
So Hillary will NOT get any enthusiasm at all from the gung-ho liberal-left/progressive base of the Dem party. Sure, she'll have money. But money won't necessarily override the sheer stupidity of her divisive Rovian campaign.