Dems in Ohio apparently crossing over

[Funtatlaguy]

Just watched a 10am polling place report out of Ohio on MSNBC.
Reporter said he was in a heavily democratic district where about half of the ballots in this open primary state were going republican.

So, if some Dems vote repub, who does that hurt more in OUR primary, Bernie or Hillary?
If you are just lukewarm about our candidates, do you vote against Trump?
If you assume that Hillary already has it wrapped up, do you vote FOR Trump in thinking he would be easier for her to beat in November?
I would love to hear why these Dems in Ohio are voting Repub today.

[spinbaby]

1. Pure speculation here

They may be crossing over to support Kasich.

[Betty Karlson]

2. VERY good possibility.

[Funtatlaguy]

4. Just out of state pride?

They must not believe the Dem primary is still competitive?

[morningfog]

14. Out of hate of Trump. And they may not be as invested inthe Dem race.

Either they are happy with either or don't think it is competitive. Lots of possible explanations.

[zappaman]

18. That was my first thought.

[Agschmid]

24. Yup.

[DCBob]

28. I suspect you are right.

Interesting.

[Aerows]

31. Anything to prevent Trump

getting the nomination is my suspicion.

[vdogg]

3. Considering everyone thinks Ohio is close, this will hurt Bernie more.

He needs independents and Republicans to carry the state. If that many dems are crossing then it stands to reason many indys and Republicans will cross back too. I see this more as pro-Kasich than anti-Trump. Kasich is highly popular with dems (relatively speaking ).

[Punkingal]

5. I fear this will hurt Bernie.

Damn it.

[morningfog]

15. Most likely Dems switching over would be HIllary folks who are over confident.

Bernie folks wouldn't risk a single vote, IMO.

[Punkingal]

16. I hope you're right, but I wish they were voting for Bernie instead of Trump.

[Agschmid]

25. Agree.

[Aerows]

32. My thoughts, as well.

Bernie folks know better that he needs every vote he can get.

Quite a lot of Hillary folks are over confident. They have pumped the narrative that she is inevitable for so long and so loudly that many think it is fait accompli without their vote.

[Segami]

34. +1.....I agree.

[alcibiades_mystery]

22. I think morningfog's right: crossover Dems are probably traditional/moderate Clinton voters

That said, everyone always makes far more out of so-called cross-over votes than they're worth. Most (the vast vast vast majority) people vote their party rather than trying to game primaries. It's mostly an online and media myth.

[calguy]

30. I think it hurts Hillary more than Bernie

I still think that Hillary will have a very good night delegate wise. Bernie will win a few states here and there and so will Hillary, but her lead gets larger all the time.
Time is definitely not on Bernie's side.

[rbrnmw]

6. I took a couple to the polls in Ohio

their friends who are Democrats are trying to stop Trump by voting for John Kasich

[JFKDem62]

7. Dems who think Hillary is "inevitable" voting against Kasich or against Trump?

This helps Bernie.

[Happenstance24]

8. Hillary

Bernie is losing Democrats by 20 points. His strength is Independants and cross over Pugs.

[Uponthegears]

9. Call me Pollyanna

But I don't see why ANY Sanders supporter would cross over.

First, they know Sanders has Ohio within his grasp and their vote counts. (Hillary supporters have already declared her the winner, regardless of what happens in Ohio)

Second, unlike Hillary supporters, who HAVE TO RUN AGAINST TRUMP OR THEY WILL LOSE THE GENERAL, Bernie supporters don't care who Republicans run BECAUSE HE CAN BEAT THEM ALL.

[earthside]

10. It might depend on where this is happening.

In southern and rural Ohio I can see conservative nominal Democrats crossing over to vote for Trump.

When I lived in Ohio, the only time I met a person who had actually seen a KKK cross burning came out of rural central Ohio.

Now, those type would probably vote for Hillary Clinton if they stayed with the Democratic primary ... just out of electoral inertia.

[Ken Burch]

11. "Crossing Over"? In the "John Edward" sense?

[ebayfool]

23. I thought the other John Edwards til reading the body of your post.

Must drink more tea and wake up!

[vdogg]

12. Hmm, this might not be good for Hillary after all

Some reports are that the dems who are switching are voting Trump. Sounds like strategic voting. Wish these idiots would realize that we have to support OUR candidate first before trying to pick her opponent. This strategery backfired in Michigan too.

[Agschmid]

26. Anyone who votes for Trump even as a protest primary vote are fools IMO.

[Chan790]

29. I think you misconstrue their intents.

Ohio, being a rust-belt state with a heavy manufacturing base, has a lot of union-member Democrats that are nevertheless socially and economically conservative but remain with the Democratic party because they vote labor issues in local elections. At one point, we called them Reagan Democrats; now it's more helpful to think of them as "local elections only" Democrats. This isn't a new phenomena, if people had paid more attention, it happened in 2004 as-well, to a lesser extent in 2008...and in 2012 but that's less surprising as there was no Democratic primary in 2012.

These are likely voters that neither Hillary or Bernie were ever going to have and they very-likely will vote GOP in the GE regardless who the respective nominees are. The only nationally-prominent Democrat that they've fallen-in for in recent history is Barack Obama.

[oasis]

13. We don't want a repeat of Michigan. Hill folk will vote Hill.

[DefenseLawyer]

17. This i where "excitement" plays a role.

I'm going to assume that Dems in Ohio that cross over will be voting Kasich; a "local boy makes good" kinda thing. One has to assume that no one that is "excited" to vote for their candidate would make that move. Clearly there are people excited to vote for Clinton, just has there are those that are excited to vote for Sanders. It would seem however, and this is just anecdotal, that there are more "true believer" Sanders supporters that would never do that than there are Clinton supporters. I guess we'll see if it actually happens in any significant numbers and if so, how it plays out. By my thinking it hurts Clinton if it hurts anybody, but we'll see.

[Blue_In_AK]

35. That "local boy makes good" thing reminds me of Alaska in 2008.

Some polls showed Obama leading here before McCain picked Sarah for VP. At the time she was quite popular here (before she lost her fucking mind), so people voted for McCain because she was on the ticket.

By the way, I think Sarah is on some serious drugs. She is unrecognizable from her 2006 self.

[KoKo]

19. MSNBC has reporter at polling place

saying overwhelming Dem crossover to to Repub. He's saying the vote is going Trump in the people he has interviewed. He also says the polling place is in a heavily Democratic area of Ohio.

Odd thing is that it doesn't look like the polling place has many people voting. Don't know whether this is just hype, though--given the MSM bias.

[Zorra]

20. Trump may get much of the racist, sexist, homophobic, "low IQ, wife beater Dem" vote.

The good news is, there's not many of them left, because most already crossed over to the Republican party years ago.

[dana_b]

21. I have no idea

I hope that some are just trying to play games (registering as Dems but are really Repubs) then actual Dems who think that the Repubs have more to offer. Either way it doesn't make sense to me unless they truly don't like either of the Dem candidates.

[virtualobserver]

27. Conservative Democrats who would never vote for Bernie anyway....

One mistake that many might be making is imagining that Independents are more conservative than Democrats.

Many Independents don't have a fixed ideology. They can be powerfully persuaded by a truthful message.

[ram2008]

33. Ironically voting for Kasich improves Trumps odds at the nomination

There are two possibilities for Trump to lose, both of which are INCREDIBLY SMALL

1) Kasich loses Ohio and drops out, the establishment and anti-Trump vote rally around Cruz who is behind in the delegate math by a little over 100, possibly 200 after tonight, Trump falters a bit in future races and Cruz eeks out the tiniest of wins. Probability ~5-10%

2) Kasich wins Ohio and stays in and they pray for a brokered. The anti-trump vote is still split, no one reaches the threshold, but Trump has the most delegates headed into the convention. The party decides that it is worth falling on the sword and destroying the party by nominating Kasich and going against the will of its voters so long as they do not give legitimacy to Trump. This would fuel more anger and make Trump run third party, burning the party to ashes, costing it the general, but allowing it to be rebuilt in the future. Probability ~1%.