OK, now that we have firmer delegate counts: Sanders needs 57%, Clinton 43% going forward

[Recursion]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

Obviously MO could go all crazy with a recount, but based on where we are now, Sanders needs 1248 delegates, or 57% of the remaining available, and Clinton needs 926, or 43% of the remaining delegates.

2173 delegates are still outstanding, meaning there are still theoretically enough delegates for a candidate to win simply with delegates from the states that haven't voted yet.

[Kalidurga]

1. They keep saying 75%. Is that a magic number or are they just trying to trick people?

[Recursion]

2. Were Sanders to win 75% going forward he could override a super-delegate wall against him

But I doubt either would be able to get a convention majority based purely on pledged delegates, realistically.

[Kalidurga]

4. I doubt any super depending on votes to stay in office is going to vote against what their...

constituents want. So, I am waiting for all the votes to be counted. CALIFORNIA OR BUST.

[BainsBane]

3. Not going to happen

He didn't win 53 or 54%, or even 51%, despite massively outspending Hillary in ad revenues. She won five out of five. He's effectively out of the competition.

[Recursion]

5. The northwest is going to be strong for him; it will keep the money coming at least (nt)

[BainsBane]

8. Losing has a way of drying up donations

and then he is going to have to account to the FEC for the contributions that violated campaign finance law.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/02/26/bernie-sanders-campaign-contributions/80999298/

[restorefreedom]

6. the calendar coming up is bernie country

hillarys best states are behind her. bernies are ahead, and 30 contests left. she leads in just over 10% of the pledged delegstes needed.

it's definitely game on.

[BainsBane]

9. We'll see

[restorefreedom]

15. yes, i am sure we will all be watching. nt

[NurseJackie]

7. There's really no two ways about it. It is what it is.

Bernie will not be the nominee. She with the most delegates becomes the nominee. He with the fewest delegates returns to the Senate.

[cosmicone]

10. There are no "big delegate chunk" states

where Sanders can get a 58-42 win.

He may win WA and OR 52-48 - that won't cut it.
He will lose CT, NY, NJ, PA and MD -- all closed primaries.
He will lose CA 54-46 -- a semi-open primary.
He will lose AZ 52-48 - a closed primary.

ID, WY, MT, UT, HI and RI won't cut it even if he wins all the delegates there.

He is done. I appreciate the inner need to hang on to hope but the arithmetic is clear.

[MineralMan]

17. If those numbers are right, then you're right.

Even if they're wrong, though, you're right. The margins simply aren't wide enough in any of those big states to do the job for Bernie, even if he wins them all closely, which is the best he can expect.

There are no states where he can win "all the delegates." I doubt there are any where he can hit the 58-42 mark, really, at this point, and he'd have to do that in every remaining state.

It's just not feasible at this point, barring some major event that turns the tide.

[Betty Karlson]

11. Sounds doable.

And I'll support him for as long as he allows me to hope for a better Democratic Party.

[CajunBlazer]

13. And you should

[msanthrope]

12. Christ...don't bring Math and facts into this! nt

[CajunBlazer]

14. The big question is will Bernie be able to continue to get contributions....

For many the writing is already on the wall and they may hesitate about throwing more money down an empty hole. Without a PAC to support him Bernie he depends on small contributions.

Many of his biggest individual donators have already reached the limit of what they can contribute during the primaries by federal law. Small contributors often have limited resources. Will they be financially able to contribute to the Sanders campaign especially if they see his chances.

In addition is it morally right for a candidate to continue to ask for contributions if he/she knows he/she has almost virtually no chance of winning.

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. This is why this morning I went there

mathematically it is very difficult

It could happen... I just don't see how, and the campaign is saying it can. And right now we are at 45 percent of delegates awarded... once we cross that magical 51 percent...

I do this as analysis, Before last night there was a narrow map... now... there is a nearly impossible map.

I won't tell people how to vote... I leave the loyalty pledges to others. (As insulting as I find them)

[Uncle Joe]

18. My own gut feeling is that neither candidate will get enough pledged delegates to put them over

the top barring some extreme major circumstance taking place.

It will boil down to who has the most pledged delegates and how the super delegates weigh their decision as to which candidate to back.

Thanks for the thread, Recursion.

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. Oh boy two brokered conventions

what is there not to like?

[Uncle Joe]

20. ...