Bye bye, Bernie: The Democratic race is all but over

[brooklynite]

Washington Post:

Bernie Sanders needed a big performance on Tuesday night. It may not have seemed like it; it may have seemed like he could scrape out a win or two and fight on. As Sanders fans have repeatedly insisted over the past week or so, the map for Sanders improves quite a bit from here on out, with fewer states with large African-American populations. Fewer black voters means a better shot for Sanders. So, the thinking was, stay close on Tuesday and grind it out.

But he didn't stay close on Tuesday.

...snip...

Can Sanders win? Sure. Who knows what will happen over the next two months. Hillary Clinton's support could completely collapse and Sanders could easily roll up huge margins in every state. Possible.

But there's no indication that's going to happen. That was the key lesson from Tuesday night: Nothing has changed in the calculus for the two candidates. His surprise win in Michigan looks, in light of Ohio and Illinois, more like a fluke than a predictor of how the rest of the contests would go. (That fluke, incidentally, only left Sanders essentially tied with Clinton in the state for delegates.) If Sanders went into Tuesday needing a big performance, he leaves needing a miracle.

[nc4bo]

1. Hello Hillary, we aren't going anywhere til convention. Suck it up. nt

[brooklynite]

2. No problem with me...just be honest about the likely outcome...

...which States with large enough pools of delegates will Sanders win by a large enough margin to erase a 300 delegate deficit?

[mikeysnot]

3. you do realize the chart proves the opposite?

Obama is our president.... and Clinton gave up in June of 2008....

we will be seeing you at the convention.

[brooklynite]

8. You're misreading the chart...

...the yellow line was Obama's lead over Clinton in 2008 (Obama won)

...the blue line is Clinton's comparable lead over Sanders in 2016 (Clinton wins)

[mikeysnot]

22. Clinton has not won yet! Yes she is in the front in delegates...

Are you the type of person that goes into the game at half time and tells the other team the game is over because you are winning at half time? We are barley half way through and most of the states she won are red states. States she won't win in the GE.

The states that voted in 2008 differ greatly from the ones that voted this year at this point. Going forward you are going to see the delegates pile up for Bernie. He is in this until June, so save some bandwidth with your premature victory dance...

[brooklynite]

23. If I'm at the game and the score is 60/40?

And I know how the two teams are likely to perform in the rest of the game? Yes.

You're relying on a simple assertion of "there are enough delegates; anything can happen" argument. I'll say "no; anything CAN'T happen if we assume human behavior follows common patterns".

We know that Sanders' performance in the Midwest has been consistently mediocre; two effective ties; one small win; one big loss. That tells us something about what's likely to happen in Wisconsin.

We know that Sanders' performance in western Caucus states has been good, but that they don't generate a lot of delegates, and that Clinton will still take a share of them.

We know that Sanders' performance in Mid-Atlantic States will be constrained by the fact that many of these States have closed Primaries (no Independents), and that Clinton wins among Democratic voters.

That leaves California as a major goal; but with a diverse ethnic makeup; and multiple expensive TV markets, there's no evidence he'll win it by an acceptably large margin to offset the delegate gap.

[HumanityExperiment]

48. Is the 'game' over?

You decided to use a sports ref with the point of "If I'm at the game and the score is 60/40?"

Do you expect the other team to just stop playing at that point?

how much time is left on the 'clock'?

how many delegates are left on the board?

So using your sports metaphor, is your side not strong enough to see the game through?

[brooklynite]

50. I've never said Sanders should drop out...

I just believe in being honest about what's going to be happening in the next three months.

[HumanityExperiment]

59. You implied as much...

"And I know how the two teams are likely to perform in the rest of the game? Yes."

How do you 'know' this likely performance? If the 'game' is left to play out adjustments can be made and the underdog might win the game, so let the game play out without the 'color commentary' that implies the other team should bow out or just stop...

"You're relying on a simple assertion of "there are enough delegates; anything can happen" argument. I'll say "no; anything CAN'T happen if we assume human behavior follows common patterns"."

I'm relying on the number of remaining delegates and those remaining states and voting citizens should be given their time to 'play' in the game, 'human behavior' can be a very tricky thing indeed... and NOTHING in this election cycle is following 'common patterns'

There is 'honesty' and then there's HONESTY, what I'm reading within your posts is 'honesty', which implies that rather than let this play out and upset the current leading delegate count candidate the other side should STOP and CEASE any further action since clearly the scoreboard at this time states the game is 'over'

To use your sports metaphor, your 'team' should be able to withstand any and all opponents that come at them from the start to the finish, if you're calling for 'honesty' then who are you really trying to address here by implying that the game NOT continue until the clock hits 00:00?

[brooklynite]

61. Returning to my sports metaphor...

...I'll say when I think a team will lose; I won't run on the field and grab the ball.

[HumanityExperiment]

62. let's be honest shall we...

Your post imply stopping the game, that's the honest bit there

[brooklynite]

63. This is a discussion board...

....all that someone needs to do is post a reply outlining the States that Sanders can expect to win that will eliminate a 300-delegate deficit. Somehow that never happens.

[HumanityExperiment]

70. interesting pivot...

so now the 'game' isn't about start to end whistle, it's about 'discussing' or in sports terms... the play by play color commentary over stats during the game, got it...

is this your play on 'taking the ball' with this pivot?

[riderinthestorm]

77. The kind of pronouncements in the OP only fire Bernie supporters up more

Im amused at the appearance suddenly of all these articles and concern posts telling Sanders to drop out.

It's having just the opposite effect as you're conversation with Brooklynite demonstrates. Do they expect the opposing team to simply stop playing since they're down on the scoreboard?

Welcome to DU!

[HumanityExperiment]

85. Thx!

n/t

[John Poet]

83. If the F.B.I. comes and drags your team away in handcuffs

before the game is over, they will lose.

If not, we'll just have to wait and see.

Of course, there's probably less chance of that happening in a basketball game,
than in this primary campaign...

[brooklynite]

84. "drags your team away in handcuffs"...

A lot of Sanders supporters here sound almost hopeful...

[Human101948]

5. In other words, accept the Hillary boot on the back of our heads?

If you're so sure of victory, why don't you act like a winner and be graceful about it? Why do have to TRUMP-et your
number one-ness?

[rjsquirrel]

33. Wow

That metaphor is just so Fox News.

[Human101948]

56. The gloating is so Fox News...

so Trumpish.

[rjsquirrel]

64. Lol

Hillary is a jackbooted thug?

Look in the mirror. When you say shit like that
you are the Trumpist.

[Human101948]

67. Not about Hillary. It's about her supporters who are telling us to give up...

because we are overpowered and have no chance and must submit.

And I thought Rocket J. Squirrel was the smart one.

[rjsquirrel]

68. Lol again

"Not about Hillary" other than that part about her bootheel on your poor little neck.

The drama is so over the top. Yea, rocket is a smart squirrel. She can tell when people are saying stupid shit because they are butthurt about losing.

You'll end up voting for her or you'll end up with President Trump. Then you'll really have a bootheel to complain about. Grow up.

[Human101948]

69. Thanks, you just convinced me to stay home on election day....

And you can pack that into your chubby little cheeks.

[rjsquirrel]

73. My heart is broken

I'm guessing you're white and middle class. You can afford President Trump. Good for you.

Seriously I really don't care if you stay home. Your profile suggests you live in Maryland, which is a sure bet for Hillary, so it really won't matter anyway and you can save the trip.

Seriously though, the level of butthurt is over the top. DU-wide, but in your responses too. You'll come around when you calculate your rational best interests. Or you're saying you'd be willing to sell out the country to punish the woman who beat your candidate fair and square, or as fair and square as modern politics gets anyway.

No candidate is ideal. All candidates have flaws. No president on his or her own can change the direction of this country. I've been a Bernie admirer for many years, supported his senate campaign, and seriously considered voting for him -- I may still do so in my state primary, which is a sure dem state and where Clinton is almost certain to win anyway -- because I like the way he's pulled Clinton to the left and think his issues need to be foregrounded in the election. Had he won the primary I'd proudly vote for him in the general.

So that's the difference between us. You are willing to say "screw the poor, the minorities, women, gay people, workers, and the rest of the world, my butt hurts too much to vote for the second best person running." I'm not.

PS It's never an insult to offer a squirrel nuts. Eating nuts for breakfast is my hobby. And now here's something we hope you'll REALLY like.

[upaloopa]

35. Human nature. When you win you are happy. Nobody is going to take this away from us

[virtualobserver]

4. California, New York, New Jersey, Washington and more -- already in by "NOW" in 2008

It is the illusion of the re-ordering of the primary schedule this time that gives Hillary her big "lead".

[brooklynite]

6. Except NY and NJ are Closed Primaries

Clinton has been winning registered Democrats in most States; Independents won't be able to vote.

[virtualobserver]

10. The point is, by the time that Obama had that "small" lead..Hillary had very few states to work with

The Clinton strategy, from the very beginning, has been to chant endlessly that it is "all over" .

We will see.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

74. The chart in the OP contradicts this. N.T.

[virtualobserver]

75. The chart confirms it, it doesn't contradict it.

[IdaBriggs]

14. When you fear the Independents, it doesn't bode well for hopes in the General.

There is no hope for a rebranding or introduction. Everyone knows her. And the only ones who want her - well, her husband got impeached. Won't it be exciting for her to be the second Clinton with that little asterisk in the history book? Assuming we aren't putting media savvy Trump in, as opposed to "not a natural politician" Hillary. No chance, right?

Sigh. Best for everyone if Obama just indicts her and gets her out of the race. Here's hoping....

[brooklynite]

19. I'm not "fearing the Independents"

I'm pointing out facts about the upcoming Primaries that that Sanders will have to take into account. Whether you think Independents should be allowed to vote in Democratic Primaries or not, the fact is they can't in several extremely valuable States.

[IdaBriggs]

21. A strong candidate should welcome them. Your team does not.

Get out the vote efforts are at an epic level of low from DNC.

A large portion of your party is flat out telling you they will NOT support your candidate, to which the only reply is TRUMP IS A NUTJOB.

If the Republicans put up a non-racist, non-homophobic, pro-choice candidate, I'd jump so fast it would make your head spin because without those three things, your candidate pretty much sucks/I can't tell the difference between them.

[bkkyosemite]

27. But those that live in closed states know that if they are voters and they will change

from Independents to Dems simple.

[NuclearDem]

43. They didn't seem to know that in Florida.

Most closed primary states require registration with a party a significant amount of time ahead of the vote.

[upaloopa]

36. It should be clear by now that we are not afraid. Not afraid of independents, not afraid of Bernie

and most assuredly not afraid of his revolution.

[NuclearDem]

45. Not afraid of the independents.

Simply pointing out that closed primaries are particularly challenging for a campaign like Bernie's that's so often relied on crossover and independent votes to win.

[LuvLoogie]

53. I thought he was a Democrat now. It's the Democratic primary.

[NuclearDem]

55. He's registered as a Democrat for the primaries, yes.

His support, however, has largely been independent or unaffiliated voters, while Clinton overwhelmingly wins Democrats.

In a state where only registered Democrats can vote in the primary, that dynamic favors Clinton.

[LuvLoogie]

57. In my opinion, and I think this is demonstrated in Ohio's results,

it is a Right-wing anti-Hillary (not pro-Bernie) crossover that gets him close or over the top in open primaries. They rallied to favorite son Kasich instead.

[NuclearDem]

58. That would seem to be pretty accurate.

Open primaries are messy that way.

[restorefreedom]

11. that is exactly it. the calendar was completely different last time

dws knew hillarys strength in the south so rigged the schedule to try and knock out any competition in states where she is weak

too bad it didn't work. i guess she wasnt counting on bernie

[virtualobserver]

13. I think that DWS did Bernie a favor

If she had duplicated the massive Tsunami Tuesday from 2008, it would have been difficult for Bernie to compete in 22 states at once, so early in the cycle.

Thanks, Debbie!

[restorefreedom]

15. hopefully that turns out to be true

cant wait to see her face when she has to introduce bernie as the nominee

[virtualobserver]

16. I'm not saying that she made it easy for Bernie

It was never going to be easy.

[restorefreedom]

17. i know. she could have made things worse by overstacking. nt

[SidDithers]

7. DU rec...nt

Sid

[bkkyosemite]

29. Sid out of all people here your sig line is the most disrespectful to Senator Sanders.

[SidDithers]

54. Truth hurts, eh?...nt

Sid

[GreatGazoo]

9. Clinton lost 11 of the first 12 contests

in 1992 (Bill).

Hillary stayed in until June in 2008.

If the Washington Post was picking the winner of this thing it would indeed be over but they aren't and it isn't.

[LAS14]

12. Another point of view.

This yelling back and forth sounds like the Republicans. For my part I'm grateful for the Sanders campaign. First it honed Hillary's message, and, yes, pulled it farther left. That's a good thing. Then it gave the Democrats some attention in spite of the Republican debacle. Where would we be if she was basically unopposed? We're a stronger party. I look forward to a rousing presence by Bernie and his supporters at the convention. Hopefully where we demostrate what it can be like when people in the same party disagree but come together to keep Trump out of the White House.

las

[DrDan]

18. it is always better to have a good race leading up to the convention - and it will bring us together

eventually

a lot of hurt feelings and a lot of gloating - but, as you say, we will be a stronger party for it

[PoliticAverse]

28. It will only "bring us together" if the winning side acts graciously toward the losing side. n/t

[One of the 99]

20. Well said and thank you.

[bkkyosemite]

30. "honed Hillary's message" You do understand that she will un hone it if elected.

[workinclasszero]

24. the map for Sanders improves quite a bit from here on out, with fewer states with large

African-American populations. Fewer black voters means a better shot for Sanders.

How can the BS movement be call progressive when it cuts out the base of the democratic party?

It looks to me like a white privilege panic movement TBH.

Reactionary not progressive.

[Autumn]

31. They all get one single vote. That's not a white privilege panic movement, that's Democracy

No one is cutting out the base of the democratic party they all have a vote, African-Americans, Whites, Latinos , Asians. One vote, for whom they chose.

[workinclasszero]

38. Then why the glee from Sanders supporters

that the upcoming primaries are in majority white states?

That kind of attitude looks bad in the democratic party.

Its straight out of the republican playbook though.

[Autumn]

42. Bernie will do well so that's a cause for glee. There was a lot of glee when Hill locked down

the AA vote in the Southern states. You didn't have a problem with that now did ya? They support her, again Democracy. People of all races can support the person of their choice. No one is cutting out the base of the democratic party they all have a vote, African-Americans, Whites, Latinos , Asians. One vote, for whom they chose. But go on ahead with your bad self and pretend that only racist White people support Bernie and it looks bad in the democratic party

[workinclasszero]

47. Whatever

I'm old, white and working class till the day I die and I'm proud to stand with John Lewis, Dolores Huerta and the base of my party which happens to be POC and majority female as well, in support of Hillary Clinton for President.

Proud as hell, as a matter of fact!

OTOH, I think lots of Sanders supporters are uncomfortable with the demographic makeup of the democratic party of 2016.

[Autumn]

49. Yeah whatever, I'm an old Latina woman and I'm proud to stand with Bernie because he stands with me.

Stand where you want. I'm standing where I want.

[choie]

79. That is absolute crap!

Stop painting Bernie supporters as racists. It is disgusting and says more about you than it says about his supporters.

[workinclasszero]

91. Hey Bernie and his supporters are all over the media crowing

about the upcoming primaries in majority white states, where they expect to do well.

Did I make that up?

[coyote]

25. Really?

[gcomeau]

26. If Clinton is the nominee...

The Democratic PARTY is all but over, at least as far as being a viable liberal choice.


So it can kiss my support goodbye the day after the convention if that happens. But excuse me if I hold out hope people will do the right thing until then instead of just rolling over for the right wing apologists who want us all to shut up and go away.

[redstateblues]

80. Extreme hyperbole. Take a deep breath.

[RandiFan1290]

37. Don't forget the racism!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014378251

[Iggo]

65. Yikes!

Hard to get around that one.

[LWolf]

34. Bernie disagrees. So do I.

His email yesterday:

When we started our campaign 10 months ago, Kelley, I don't think you could find a single person who would believe you if you said Bernie Sanders would win nine states by this point in the campaign.

Last night we beat all the polls in almost every state. We earned a significant number of delegates, and are on track for the nomination. Here's why:

What you will not hear from the political and media establishment is that, based on the primary and caucus schedule for the rest of the race, this is the high water mark for the Clinton campaign. Starting today, the map now shifts dramatically in our favor.

Arizona, Idaho, and Utah are up next Tuesday. Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington State caucus the Saturday after. Then it's Wisconsin's turn to vote.

That means we have an extremely good chance to win nearly every state that votes in the next month. If we continue to stand together, we’re just getting started for our political revolution:

[MaggieD]

39. Math

[HumanityExperiment]

60. Using math...

How many delegates remain to be gained by either candidate?

How many states and citizens within those states remain to cast their votes?

Is the equation completed yet? are all factors given to complete this math equation?

Let this play out... and then we will see how the 'math' equation ends shall we?

[MaggieD]

71. Too many for him to catch up under a proportional system

Far too many - 322 at this point. Unless you think every other state that still has to vote will come out almost exactly like New Hampshire he is not going to be nominated.

Surely you don't actually think that, do you?

Math.

[HumanityExperiment]

72. Remains to be seen does it not...

Let us allow this primary schedule to complete to see how that final tally comes out shall we?

Surely you don't have a problem with that, do you?

[MaggieD]

87. No, not really

I mean it's possible aliens could appear and declare him their supreme ruler. But it's not going to happen. I agree with Obama.

He can stay in but if he keeps smearing her and Dems in general he's just aiding and abetting Trump if he does that at this point.

[HumanityExperiment]

88. Yeah...

you embrace and run with that... sounds like a 'winner' of a perception there...

[MaggieD]

89. I think a lot of Democrats share that perception

This is an example of why he is losing Dems in polling by 15% or more. And he has lots if closed primaries coming up without indies to rely on.

[HumanityExperiment]

92. sure...

I am sure this has crossed your mind, maybe not... but do you believe Hillary can win WITHOUT independents voting for her?

Always odd that folks like you are so dismissive of independents and the like in your replies

This primary process is about principles and policies, you focus on the cult of personality about your candidate way too much

[jcgoldie]

40. I don't understand this chart

Am I just dense? How come the dashed line shows "Obama Peak" at +115 delegates and yet his yellow line never gets above +90?

[jcgoldie]

41. Nevermind I get it now

Looks like the chart ends at "now" I assume the +115 came later.

[NurseJackie]

66. I had to study it too. At first glance, it was difficult for me to ...

... understand exactly what was going on and what it represented.

[seabeyond]

44. Works for me. Nt.

[LonelyLiberalOhio]

46. HILLARY CLINTON SUPPORTERS...THE ONE ISSUE DEMOCRATS

I hate to generalize...but this is why Donald Trump is going to beat Hillary Clinton. Clinton supporters are ONE ISSUE DEMOCRATS. That's right feminism/abortion is the only issue that excites Hillary supporters. They really don't care about the poor. They really don't care about the Environment. They care about electing a woman. I consider myself a pretty liberal guy, but also pro-life. Mind you I have never voted for a Republican in my life. Bill Clinton was my first vote in 92. Please don't tell me I MUST vote for Hillary. My vote IS TO BE EARNED NOT GIVEN.

[NowSam]

51. There are what? 29 contests left?

What's the big hurry, Hillary? Let the voters have our say. Bernie all the way to the White house!

[PeoViejo]

52. A famous Brooklynite had a saying:

"It ain't over 'till it's over."

[IDemo]

82. thread winner!

[PeoViejo]

90. ....

[elleng]

76. and lost, if you maintain that attitude.

[Bluenorthwest]

78. In honor of your beloved Ron and Nancy Reagan, heroes of the AIDS crisis let me quote from the Bible

they loved so well. Proverbs 16, verse 18:

Pride goes before destruction, And a haughty spirit before stumbling.

[longship]

81. For Christ sakes, stop ringin' those cockamaimie bells!!!!

Jees! Louise!

We already know that you're here!

[lmbradford]

86. Go ahead

You guys can quit at halftime, Bernie and his supporters are suited up for another half.

FEEL THE BERN!!