NY Primary Rules make it a very bad state for Bernie

[Godhumor]

So just a quick list:

NY is a closed primary - Other than NH and VT, Hillary had won registered Democrats in every primary so far by double digits.

Last day for change in party registration was in October - even if Democratic leaning independents want to become Democrats due to Sanders, they're already shut out of primary.

Last day for brand new voters to register is about month before the primary - No last minute voter drives on college campuses in NY. As a result, NY voters are going to skew dramatically into the older demographics that favor Hillary.


And this didn't even get into polling, urban support, etc. The fact is that administratively, NY is one of the very worst, if not the worst, states for Bernie to compete in, as his two strongest demographics (Independents and youth) are closed off and minimized, respectively.

[comradebillyboy]

1. It's a shame Democrats don't like Bernie

[riversedge]

31. Correction. It is his policies-and lack of details on how he would

implement them (except for his call for the Political Revolution). Not Sanders himself.

[pinebox]

36. His policies? You don't care for Bernie's policies?

Clarify here please because you're hyphenated.
Is it his policies OR the lack of details he gives regarding his policies?

[riversedge]

44. Both for the most part.

[pinebox]

50. Ok let me ask you this

because I am genuinely curious.
Which polices of Bernie do you not like?

[Walk away]

52. I don't like Bernie's policy or his personality....

Raising taxes on the middle class and yelling and poking his finger in people's faces are just two of the hundreds of reasons so may people find him unacceptable.

[hrmjustin]

2. Hillary will win here by 15-20 percent. She will win all 5 boroughs and the suburbs of NYC

[Godhumor]

3. I'm in WNY, Bernie country, but I'll be helping to keep the margin down n/t

[hrmjustin]

4. Yes Sanders should do well in the rural areas and the college towns.

[geek tragedy]

21. It'll probably be similar to the Teachout/Cuomo primary.

Hillary will probably do better than Cuomo, because she's not Cuomo.

[hrmjustin]

23. Agreed! She can't take NY for granted but I think she will win.

[geek tragedy]

25. This is a very useful preview:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/9/10/1328535/-NYC-Where-Teachout-won-and-where-she-lost

Bernie will do well in rural upstate areas, but she's going to really run up the score on him--to the point of nonviability in some CDs--in NYC metro.

[hrmjustin]

28. Here in Brooklyn I see Sanders as winning the northwest but losing the rest of Brooklyn.

[geek tragedy]

29. Yep, ironically he'll win the neighborhood where Hillary's HQ is.

The part of Brooklyn that doesn't have twee lads wearing skinny jeans? Blowout for Clinton.

[hrmjustin]

30. Yes.

[riversedge]

34. Well, she will have the advantage of being their previous Senator

also. New Yorkers seemed to like her

[geek tragedy]

41. New Yorkers like her. They don't like Cuomo and he still won big. nt

[Godhumor]

43. She is very popular in NY

It should be a big night for her.

[alcibiades_mystery]

45. Agreed...they even like her upstate and in rural counties, as GOPers running against her learned

[firebrand80]

5. Once minorities get to know him...

Just kidding

[yardwork]

6. Youth are not "closed off" from voting in the New York primary.

Those who registered to vote will be able to vote. I'm not sure why you are stating that youth are closed off from voting in NY. Please clarify.

[Godhumor]

7. Pretty sure it is laid out in the OP

First time voters have to register one month before the primary to vote in the primary. No "day of" registering or college drives.

[yardwork]

8. That's not the same as "closed off."

[Godhumor]

12. Changed it to minimize.

Probably still not your preferred word choice, but the 18-22 population in this primary will be minimal.

[yardwork]

14. I agree with "minimized." Voter suppression is happening in my state, too, and I hate it.

We have to vote these Republicans out of office. They are suppressing the vote all over the country. But it hurts our case when we exaggerate. So far, minority and youth votes aren't literally closed off - just suppressed.

[sufrommich]

9. And yet no voter drive on college campuses by the

Sanders campaign before the cut off. Bad planning. I remember watching in amazement (I was a Hillary supporter in the 2008 primary) as Obama's campaign volunteers made sure their voters were registered before the cut off in every state. You can't win a campaign without exceptional planning like that.

[NuclearDem]

15. I think the deadline for registration in New York for the primary is actually 3/25.

Next Friday.

[LonePirate]

10. The NY primary is April 19. New voters can still register for two more days.

That being said, if Clinton wins NY like she has most of the other closed primary states, she will add 30+ delegates to her lead.

[Agnosticsherbet]

11. I have three millennial chidlren from a previous marriage.

Two support Sanders and one supports anything but Trump. (I will vote for Clinton in the primary.) They registered on their 18th birthdays and vote in every election.

I don't see the problem with New York's rules.

[Godhumor]

13. I have no problem at all with the rules. They just don't do Sanders any favors

It is a primary of actual Democrats. I like that.

[Agnosticsherbet]

18. If Sanders doesn't appeal to a broad cross section of New York Democrats...

That is not the Party's fault.

[riversedge]

33. Sanders brags about bringing in new voters. I have

not really seen any hard evidence that is happening.

[Agnosticsherbet]

35. Obama, now, he brought in new voters.

The Sanders' revolution has not made its appearance.

[pinebox]

39. The evidence is there, look at all the donations.

[mythology]

53. Despite Citizens United

Donating money isn't the same as voting.

[pinebox]

55. Those who donate though tend to vote :)

[yardwork]

16. I have millenial kids too. They negotiated the maze of voter suppression in NC and voted for Sanders

[Agnosticsherbet]

22. Mine live in Nevada and 2 Caucused for Sanders.

I'm proud of them. They are politically aware adults who make informed choices and are responsible citizens.

[Gothmog]

17. Sanders has not done well in closed primaries

This is a good article but this chart explains Michigan https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/14/why-hillary-clintons-delegate-lead-over-bernie-sanders-is-bigger-than-it-looks/


https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484

[geek tragedy]

19. If Obama couldn't beat her there, how will Bernie?

There aren't enough hipsters in Brooklyn to help him win anywhere in NYC.

I see it as at least 58-42, maybe a bigger margin. She'll net 25-40 delegates from NY state.

[Godhumor]

20. I'll say 35-50 delegates

Equivalent of a 15%-20% win.

[geek tragedy]

24. This is the most useful piece for the upcoming race,

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/9/10/1328535/-NYC-Where-Teachout-won-and-where-she-lost

Clinton is going to blow him out in NYC. Complete destruction. DeBlasio is on her side, every local pol is on her side, etc etc etc.

[yellowcanine]

26. I don't get why voters can't change registration up to the deadline for new registrants.

That seems wrong and undemocratic to me.

[beachbumbob]

27. New York was never going to be good for sanders

The state isn't dominated by the under 25 crowd but by pragmatic older voters that don't buy into the hype...

[Lizzie Poppet]

32. Sadly, that's a very apt analysis.

[Renew Deal]

37. It looks like Bernie may not have filed full slates of delegates

Have to dig into it, but there are lapses

http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/download/law/Certification2016PresPrimaryBallot.pdf

[restorefreedom]

38. closed primaries are inherently undemocratic

on both sides, there should be open voting for all elections

especially with both parties dying and indys taking over, it would behoove them to be less insular and more inclusive

[pinebox]

40. Precisely. It's the special interest sewing club!

[restorefreedom]

42. stitch and bitch! lol nt

[geek tragedy]

47. it is democratic, just register to vote as a Democrat and you get to choose

how the Democratic party governs itself.

If you don't want to join the club, don't complain that you don't get to make the rules.

[hrmjustin]

51. Several years back the voters of the city of ny voted down Bloombergs attempt to do away with

City primaries.

[brooklynite]

56. Clarification: He tried to do away with PARTY Primaries for City elected positions...

...an proposed the non-partisan "jungle" primary system.

[thesquanderer]

46. I guess this is why he wanted a Brooklyn debate, and HRC nixed that.

He obviously needs some big support in NY. As you point out, that's no cakewalk.

[AZ Progressive]

48. It's not just New York, most upcoming primaries are closed

See for yourself here: http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/

[Godhumor]

49. Right, but NY has really stringent registering rules

I think 6 months before primary is one of the longest lead times of any state.

[robbedvoter]

54. yeah, those New York values are a bitch!

and I am told some New Yorkers have land lines and answer random calls, which is why polls seem to favor Hillary:rolleyes: Bad, bad New Yorkers!