Primary Turnout Means Nothing For The General Election
2016 ELECTION 6:30 AM MAR 18, 2016
Primary Turnout Means Nothing For The General Election
By HARRY ENTEN
Hillary Clinton at an election night event at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, on Tuesday.
CAROLYN KASTER / AP
Republican turnout is up and Democratic turnout is down in the 2016 primary contests so far. That has some Republicans giddy for the fall; heres an example, from a March 1 Washington Times article:
Republicans continued to shatter turnout records in their presidential primaries and caucuses Tuesday, while Democrats lagged behind in what analysts said was a clear indication of an enthusiasm gap heading into the general election.
And some commentators are saying that Democrats should be nervous. From The Huffington Post, last month:
But Democratic Party elites shouldnt be high-fiving each other. They should be very, very worried. In primary after primary this cycle, Democratic voters just arent showing up.
But Democrats shouldnt worry. Republicans shouldnt celebrate. As others have pointed out, voter turnout is an indication of the competitiveness of a primary contest, not of what will happen in the general election. The GOP presidential primary is more competitive than the Democratic race.
Indeed, history suggests that there is no relationship between primary turnout and the general election outcome. You can see this on the most basic level by looking at raw turnout in years in which both parties had competitive primaries. There have been six of those years in the modern era: 1976, 1980, 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2008.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/