New state and national poll averages put HRC well ahead in NY, PA, AZ, and CA
Last edited Fri Mar 18, 2016, 07:59 PM - Edit history (2)
These delegate-rich states comprise all the states with poll averages reported by RealClearpolitics:
Arizona: Clinton 48.5, Sanders 21.5
New York: Clinton 63, Sanders 28.5
Pennsylvania: Clinton 49.3, Sanders 26
California: Clinton 42.5, Sanders 29
National: Clinton 51, Sanders 39.6
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa
ON EDIT: All eight western and northern states between now and NY (which includes AZ) in total have FEWER delegates (280, total) than NY alone -- which has 291. PA has 210 and CA, the motherlode, has 548.
But all of the Democratic primaries are divided proportionally, so only large wins yield substantially different numbers of delegates. This is why Hillary is likely, over the long run, to sustain or even increase her current lead -- though Bernie could temporarily cut into her delegate count during the next 8 contests.
If he is as successful as Obama was in 2008 in those states, he will reduce her delegate lead from about 325 to about 265.
And then will come NY, which has more delegates than the previous 8 states combined -- and where Hillary was re-elected to her position as Senator with very wide margins.
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