2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThink Again Hillary Democrats: 10 Reasons Why She Could Lose this Fall
1. The Senator from Wall Street: This is not 1972 when the country was so deeply divided over the Vietnam War. That upheaval wrecked the Democratic Party and led to the Nixon landslide over George McGovern. Now the country is united against Wall Street. Hillary will have a great deal of difficulty triangulating her way to safety. She will never be able to explain away why she received over $11 million in corporate speaking fees, much of it from Wall Street, and why she still is accepting millions from Wall Street for her campaign.
The defensive lines she is using are weak Obama did it too. Im have a proven record against Wall Street. I cant be bought. My proposals are even tougher than my opponents.
Do you really think that will sell in the Fall?
2. Free Trade Cheerleader: The neo-liberal consensus on corporate-managed trade has collapsed. The American people know theyve been had. They see that average worker and thousands of communities have been screwed by trade agreements which put Americans in direct competition with low wage workers around the world. Hillary, during her husbands administration, pressed hard for NAFTA. And until very recently, she was proud of her work to develop the TPP the gold standard of all trade agreements she said until Bernie forced her to retreat. She has no credible defense.
3. Global Warrior: The American people are also turning away from regime change. Hillarys record is consistently hawkish. She voted for the Iraq War. She pushed for the takedown of Kaddafi and Assad. Now she wants a dangerous no-fly zone in Syria and she encourages the use of special OPS troops all over the world. The Libya and Middle East are her quagmire.
4. Enthusiasm Gap: While a Trump or a Cruz will draw many to the polls just to defeat them, there is no substitute for positive enthusiasm. We should be worried about the fact that Hillary is having difficulty breaking into double digits with young voters. Thats where the real energy is this year. Maybe she can make up for this with older voters, especially women. But its a gamble a big one. Those Sanders kids may stay home. And guilt-tripping them into voting is not likely to work.
5. Trust: Hillary does not generate trust. Nearly 55% of voters think its a quality she lacks. Sure, its a wash if Trump is the nominee, given his high unfavorables. But what if its a Cruz-Kasich ticket or Ryan? Hillary will be hobbled. And its not just a bum rap. She has shape-shifted too many times, on too many issues. Yes, you can always explain away any one instance or another, by saying how she has changed, learned or made a mistake. But doing so only reinforces the image that shes not being straight that shell say whatever needs to be said to get elected.
FIVE Other TERRIBLE reasons at the link
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/les-leopold/think-again-hillary-democ_b_9495560.html
Response to Logical (Original post)
DemocratSinceBirth This message was self-deleted by its author.
MFM008
(19,803 posts)anyway, its republicans and the media push the crap about her being "trustworthy" if she wasnt she would have been found out YEARS ago.
Better than the guy who yells at clouds.
Logical
(22,457 posts)2banon
(7,321 posts)I've been painfully aware of her untrustworthiness since her tenure in the Senate. The media however had nothing but praises for the most abhorrent Conservative positions I've seen in a Democratic party elected pol take apart from Lieberman, and Zel Miller as an example.
I would argue, if it were not so, she would have won 2004 easily. dismiss it as right wing meme all you want, but it will never validate your position.
RandySF
(58,513 posts)But if the Republican nominee is Trump, we only need a Democrat who can walk and chew gum.
Logical
(22,457 posts)2banon
(7,321 posts)Raster
(20,998 posts)...right-thinking persons would also see the situation. However, that is NOT NECESSARILY THE CASE.
Buzz cook
(2,471 posts)The media likes to be a king or queen maker. They also have a 24 year history of being anti-Clinton.
Trump gets hours of free media coverage because it generates ad revenue.
It wouldn't take much for the media to decide that Trump actually deserves the over the top coverage and that Clinton deserves the same treatment Gore got in 2000.
Look at the coverage of the Chicago protests. There were no injuries and no arrests. The violence was started by Trump supporters. The protest was organized by students using social media.
Yet the narrative on the TV is that the protestors were violent, are paid professionals with big money baking.
At best the media are lazy whores. But they are very powerful lazy whores.
farleftlib
(2,125 posts)9. The Typical Politician: Hillary sounds incredibly scripted like every line was carefully tested in a focus group. Its not just that she says them again and again. By this point, every candidate is a broken record. Its that she seems less than sincere. Its hard to fathom what she really believes. But that is not her biggest problem. Her real political character comes out when she goes on the attack. For example, her claim that Bernie didnt support the auto bailout was a monumental distortion, if not an outright fabrication. The fact that she doubled down and repeated accusations showed a political character that is not about trust. Its the opposite, in fact. It showed that we could trust her to lie, when necessary, to get what she wants what she feels is her due.
Like I've said a hundred times before, she is a seriously flawed, baggage-ridden candidate.
Karma13612
(4,544 posts)Bad Thoughts
(2,514 posts)grasswire
(50,130 posts)artislife
(9,497 posts)basselope
(2,565 posts)#1) The GOP establishment backs a 3rd party candidate OR Trump runs as a 3rd party candidate. This gives her a chance of getting a plurality in enough states. However, turnout would be mostly for GOP and thus they would easily retain the senate and house, making her a lame duck, until they field a real candidate against her in 2020.
#2) They leave the SC seat empty. This is the single wedge issue that could drive democratic turnout enough for people to hold their nose and vote for someone like Hillary.
Unless one of those two things happen.. she has no path to victory.
2banon
(7,321 posts)And that my dear friends is her game plan which she's already executed with her foreign policy speech.
Margaret Thatcher Redux
EndElectoral
(4,213 posts)2banon
(7,321 posts)isn't that what the Drumpf said he would do? The bits and pieces I've picked up on Kasich is that he too is a religious nut (?) don't know if there's any truth to that, but I'm saying Moderate Republicans go with Clinton whether there's a third party run or not or even if K gets the nom, cuz after all, she's their best candidate. They just can't say it out loud.
artislife
(9,497 posts)Even Dems who don't know much about him, think he's sane.
basselope
(2,565 posts)This is what I expect becomes the big compromise.
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)basselope
(2,565 posts)Reagan Bush
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)fixed your headline
Logical
(22,457 posts)Raster
(20,998 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)The peer reviewed research suggests asking voters who they think will win is the best predictor of electoral success, ergo:
Simple surveys that ask people who they expect to win are among the most
accurate methods for forecasting U.S. presidential elections
https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf
farleftlib
(2,125 posts)Bleating repeatedly that every criticism of Hillary comes from RW sources is just a crapout method of attempting to shut down the conversation about her many, many weaknesses as a candidate.
2banon
(7,321 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Welcome to the future!
2banon
(7,321 posts)And that's very fitting for her intentions and positions.
Karma13612
(4,544 posts)The future is bright for those that are doing well.
It sure as heck isn't bright for those of us who are still struggling, who haven't seen the economy get better. We've only heard about it.
artislife
(9,497 posts)Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)While Reagan was president, we had a democratic congress to hold back some of the carnage. With an ultra conservative president like Clinton together with a congress like this one, it will make the 80's seem populist by comparison. even more of our shrinking pay checks will go to insurance executives, prison executives, the Pentagon, Clinton Foundation donors, charter school CEOs, and wall street.
Tough times coming.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Come on now.
And of course she's going to cut social security benefits and has started to hedge on reproductive rights.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)He is an ultra conservative.
He wants to abolish the IRS and implement a flat tax. He completely opposes raising the minimum wage. He wants to eliminate the Department of Energy and the Department of Education. He believes that green energy is a boondoggle and that humans contributing to climate change is a myth. He thinks creationism ought to be taught in schools. He believes that Christians should have a right not to offer their services to gay people. He wants to abolish Obama-care. He wants to rip up the Iran deal. He is strongly anti-abortion. He opposes DACA and tried to force a government shutdown over immigration. He wants to not only defund Planned Parenthood but open up a federal investigation of the organization. He wants to nominate only right-wing conservative justices to the Supreme Court. He supported Kim Davis and the Hobby Lobby.
Hillary is united with Bernie in opposition to almost everything that an ultra-conservative like Ted Cruz stands for.
Karma13612
(4,544 posts)"I will means test Social Security" Clinton.
She was always on my "don't vote for" list.
That whole thing she's promoting now about strengthening Social Security for certain people over others is a bright red flag that I will do everything in my power to make sure she is not our nominee.
And if she is the nominee, I will vote for her in 2016, and primary her ass in 2020.
Of course, her supporters can probably afford to do without SS.
Not me, and not alot of the 99%.
You see, I vote for the candidate who will make sure to watch out for the less fortunate among us. Not the top earners and those with trust funds and large investment portfolios.
I literally cannot 'afford' Hillary.
It is that simple. She will work her magic and I will have a retirement bleaker than my mother and Father. I am 62 and she is talking about raising the retirement age and fiddling with SS. And she doesn't have any desire to do single payer. She wants to strengthen the ACA which is code for "don't worry Big insurance, I got your back".
I.CAN'T.AFFORD.A.CLINTON.PRESIDENCY
It's pretty frightening to have to vote according to your economic station in life.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I posted some of his positions to the poster above. That is what an ultra conservative sounds like.
Hillary is on the other side of Ted Cruz on virtually every issue.
Karma13612
(4,544 posts)very conservative and has many positions that appeal to very conservative voters
oberliner
(58,724 posts)But generally speaking they are both on the liberal side of the majority of issues.
This can be shown by looking at where someone like Ted Cruz stands on things (or Donald Trump, but he seems not to have any actual positions on issues) and noting how his views are diametrically opposed to those of Hillary and of Bernie in almost all cases.
Karma13612
(4,544 posts)until she gets the nomination, then she will go centrist.
And that is how we wind up screwed again if we elect Hillary.
Sorry, but I don't believe Hillary is Liberal at all.
You need to listen to her, listen to what she doesn't say.
She is NOT looking a the 99% as a group.
At all
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Her record in the Senate was one of a solid liberal. She and Bernie voted together over 90 percent of the time.
Karma13612
(4,544 posts)Popularity as a senator in NY.
Karma13612
(4,544 posts)artislife
(9,497 posts)She's over the line with her stances. These are things she has said.
The best way to defeat h is to use h to do it.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Political views are not black and white in that manner.
There are areas where Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders agree, for example. Such as in regard to the export-import bank.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Bernie will make sure that doesn't happen. If Hillary is the nominee, he will campaign vigorously for her and hopefully his supporters will follow his lead.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)He is a pacifist and was a CO during Vietnam...there is NOTHING in his resume that indicates he can safeguard America..he could not call for the kill shot that took out bin laden...and America will not elect a paficist to the whitehouse..
artislife
(9,497 posts)Or Bush's amazing military career?
She clusterbombs children. She opts to send other children back to certain deaths.
This is what her shadow looks like
hollysmom
(5,946 posts)unicorn as Clinton would have you believe.
War should never ever be the first answer, I do not feel that threatened, I have seen us kill and do more destruction than I could ever have imagined as a kid saluting the flag. Many times war puts us in more danger, killing makes us look like a target instead of people.
hard answers bullshit. the real hard thing is to make peace work. war is easy.
edited to fix fat fingered typos.
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)They are not indications that she might lose -- or those that are have been widely debunked.
BreakfastClub
(765 posts)confuse opinions with facts. It's pervasive among them. Is it out school system? I don't know.
Logical
(22,457 posts)Logical
(22,457 posts)BeanMusical
(4,389 posts)Vinca
(50,237 posts)What if the FBI hasn't closed their investigation and cleared her? What if a close associate is indicted for something? What if she's indicted for something? This issue has been swept under the rug or laughed about, but we shouldn't make assumptions. It's not over until it's over and it bothers me the FBI hasn't made an effort to clear her since we're in the middle of a presidential election.