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Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:38 PM

Gore won the popular vote - yet Gallup showed an 11 point lead for Bush on this day in 2000.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen1.htm

10/18-20/00

Gore = 40
Bush = 51
Polled = 718 "Likely Voters"

Thanks to DemocratSinceBirth for this information.

25 replies, 3300 views

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Reply Gore won the popular vote - yet Gallup showed an 11 point lead for Bush on this day in 2000. (Original post)
mzmolly Oct 2012 OP
unblock Oct 2012 #1
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #3
mzmolly Oct 2012 #10
mzmolly Oct 2012 #4
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #2
mzmolly Oct 2012 #6
bigdarryl Oct 2012 #5
mzmolly Oct 2012 #7
mzmolly Oct 2012 #8
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #11
amborin Oct 2012 #21
mzmolly Oct 2012 #23
Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #16
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #9
Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #12
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #13
RobinA Oct 2012 #14
mzmolly Oct 2012 #15
Butterbean Oct 2012 #17
mzmolly Oct 2012 #18
Butterbean Oct 2012 #19
mzmolly Oct 2012 #20
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #22
creeksneakers2 Oct 2012 #24
mzmolly Oct 2012 #25

Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:40 PM

1. your labels are reversed.

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Response to unblock (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:42 PM

3. What's Ironic Is How Different Their Tracker, Even Then, Was Different From Other Trackers.

They were showing three times the lead for Bush* on 10/18/00 that ABC/WAPO was.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:58 PM

10. What's also interesting is that they ultimately adjust.

Do you have an answer to Unblock's question below?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=153345

I looked and can't find any info beyond this: http://www.pollingreport.com/2004.htm -

Thanks in advance.

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Response to unblock (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:45 PM

4. Goodness, thanks!

Need my coffee today!

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:41 PM

2. Please Reverse The Numbers.

TY for the mention.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:46 PM

6. Will do.

Sorry bout that!

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:46 PM

5. What was there numbers in 2004 and 2008

 

just curious

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Response to bigdarryl (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:49 PM

7. I'm out for a bit

but will check on that later. Unless someone beats me to it.

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Response to bigdarryl (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:55 PM

8. Good question. But ...

I can't find the info, sorry. I'll check with DSB and see if he knows.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #11)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:52 PM

21. are

we combatting the lies in their ads?

since i live in ca, i have no idea except what i read.

ny times today discusses a romney ad in swing states that is
geared to women...plays big time on lies about the
debt/deficit, and says r is not against abortion, etc.

i hope we are combatting these deficit/debt ads with our own?

debt/deficit will go up under R and it was Bush who created the current one:

"2001-08: Republicans, including Ryan, repeatedly vote to increase the deficit during the George Bush administration. This includes votes in favor of two huge tax cuts, two huge wars, and a big Medicare expansion, none of which are paid for.

January 20, 2009: Barack Obama is inaugurated.

October 2009: After nine months of focusing on stimulus and job creation, Obama begins his famous "pivot" toward long-term deficit reduction.

January 2010: A Senate proposal to create a bipartisan deficit commission is filibustered. Politico explains what happened: "The tepid support from Democratic leaders contributed to the loss, but more decisive was the number of Republicans switching under pressure from their party to block the measure. Six Republicans who had co-sponsored the bill as recently as last month voted against it."

One day later: In his State of the Union address, Obama announces that he'll act on his own: "I've called for a bipartisan fiscal commission, modeled on a proposal by Republican Judd Gregg and Democrat Kent Conrad....Yesterday, the Senate blocked a bill that would have created this commission. So I'll issue an executive order that will allow us to go forward, because I refuse to pass this problem on to another generation of Americans." This is the birth of the Bowles-Simpson Commission.

March 2010: Republicans appoint six members to the commission. One of them is Paul Ryan.

December, 2010: The Bowles-Simpson commission fails to agree on a plan. All three of the House Republican appointees vote against it, including Paul Ryan.

July 9, 2011: House Speaker John Boehner abandons negotiations with President Obama over an ambitious plan to cut the deficit by $4 trillion. The Washington Post explains why: "Boehner (R-Ohio) told Obama that their plan to 'go big'....was crumbling under Obama’s insistence on significant new tax revenue." One of the key opponents of compromise on taxes was Paul Ryan.

July 22, 2011: Boehner abandons yet another set of deficit negotiations when it becomes clear that House Republicans won't support tax increases of any kind. Sam Stein quotes a Republican aide explaining that Ryan was, once again, one of the key opponents: "There were certain people ... who thought the pursuit of the grand bargain was a useless pursuit because it could never pass anyway. Ryan was one of them. Ryan is opposed to tax increases."

August 2012: The Romney/Ryan campaign explicitly endorses tax cuts, but declines to take a stand on how they would pay for this by closing tax loopholes. The campaign also explicitly rejects any cuts in defense spending. Their Medicare plan proposes no cuts at all for a decade, and after that it proposes the same growth rate cap as Obamacare. However, unlike Obamacare, it doesn't include any plausible mechanisms for meeting that cap. Social Security reform is not addressed at all."

from mother jones

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #11)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 03:05 PM

23. Thanks WI DEM

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Response to bigdarryl (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:17 PM

16. In 2008, Gallup's final poll had Obama beating McCain by 11 nationally...

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:57 PM

9. Thanks! I also think the job numbers today on Gallup are telling

50/44 positive Obama--three day sample.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:03 PM

12. The final results

Gallup was off by: Gore +8.5, Bush -3.2

Final Result:
Gore: 48.4%
Bush: 47.9%

Gallup was off by 11.6%.

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:13 PM

13. They Were Only Off By 2.5% Or So In Their Final Poll

My larger point is they weren't doing a good job of actually portraying the race.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:14 PM

14. Zogby

was the only major pollster who called that one correctly. If I remember correctly, and I'm pretty sure I do.

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Response to RobinA (Reply #14)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:16 PM

15. There were many pollsters who were close

or within a small MOE.

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Response to RobinA (Reply #14)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:18 PM

17. So what is Zogby saying right now?

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #18)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:32 PM

19. Thank you ma'am. :)

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Response to Butterbean (Reply #19)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:33 PM

20. yw

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Response to RobinA (Reply #14)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:59 PM

22. Zogby Lucked Out

His final CA poll had Gore up by only 1%. He won it by 11% or 12%. Without a blow out win in CA, Gore would have certainly lost the pop vote. He won CA by > 1,300,000 votes. He won the U.S.A. by 500,000 or so. Do the math. A close win in CA and his pop vote victory disappears.

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Response to mzmolly (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 04:30 PM

24. In 2010

Gallup had a significant over estimation of the GOP vote.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251103761

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Response to creeksneakers2 (Reply #24)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 04:50 PM

25. Interesting

thank you.

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