Sanders top pick in Tuesday's Utah caucuses, poll says

[Attorney in Texas]

link to Cruz, Sanders top picks in Tuesday's Utah caucuses, poll says; excerpt:

SALT LAKE CITY — Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is the top pick of Utahns in Tuesday's GOP presidential preference caucus election and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is their choice in the Democratic caucus vote, according to a new Deseret News/KSL poll.

Cruz also leads GOP frontrunner Donald Trump and Ohio Gov. John Kasich among Republicans who said they're likely to participate in the caucus, as does Sanders over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton among a similar group of Democrats.... All of the candidates except Clinton have made campaign stops in Utah over the past several days and both the candidates and political action committees are blanketing Utah airwaves with well over $1 million in television and radio commercials.... Sanders, who has the support of 52 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers in the poll to 44 percent for Clinton, appeals to Utah voters because he's seen as "authentic. He is true to himself and we like that," Love said.

This Utah polling corresponds to the projection at PredictWise, which has Sanders as the favorite in the following upcoming races:

Utah - 83% chance of Sanders win
Idaho - 85% chance of Sanders win
Alaska - 84% chance of Sanders win
Hawaii - 53% chance of Sanderswin
Washington - 87% chance of Sanders win

[Trust Buster]

1. Hillary will crush him in Arizona and lengthen her delegate lead.

[DanTex]

2. Sounds about right. Demographics favor him in the next week or two.

Fortunately, most of those states have very low populations, so he won't make much headway in the delegate count.

[workinclasszero]

7. Pyrrhic victories in low pop states

won't get Bernie the nomination. Oh well.

If he could have had big wins in Texas or Florida...but he doesn't run well in Confederate states! LOL

[firebrand80]

9. Yeah, but it will keep DU entertaining

for at least a few more weeks.

[workinclasszero]

10. True

I look forward to the crowing of BS fans when he wins Utah or something by 2%.

[PaulaFarrell]

17. why do you say Pyrrhic?

Maybe you mean symbolic. Or token.

[workinclasszero]

18. It just does him no good

Winning a small state closely over Hillary will net Bernie nothing.

Hillary will get delegates every time too and shes 300 plus ahead right now.

[PaulaFarrell]

19. that not the meaning of pyrrhic n/t

[book_worm]

3. It's a caucus state and Bernie does best in those states

also an open caucus. But I'm surprised it's as close as it is--Obama beat her by a larger margin in Utah in 2008. If it really is something like 55-45 he'll probably get about 2 delegates more than HRC.

[Attorney in Texas]

5. When you have more supporters and more enthusiastic supporters, you generally regardless of whether

it is a caucus or a primary.

[Funtatlaguy]

4. I wish Arizona looked as good for Bernie

Arizona is 85-15 for Hillary. Argh.

[Attorney in Texas]

6. It's a betting market; betting markets favor the Goliath over the underdog.

[firebrand80]

8. Under 60% = Win for Hillary

He needs blowouts, 55% won't get it done

[Vote2016]

14. no, he needs to average 57%. no specific race has to reach 60%

[firebrand80]

15. In every contest that he doesn't hit that number

The number he needs grows larger

[Vote2016]

20. and in every contest where Sanders exceeds that goal (thanks Democrats Abroad!) the goal goes down!

[CajunBlazer]

11. Don't get your hopes up

Here is the available polling data of of the RealClearPolitics.com website:

3/22/16:

In Idaho, Sanders has a 2% lead .
Nate Silver: No prediction

In Utah Clinton has a 8.5% lead.
Nate Silver: Sanders 51.2% chance of wining, Clinton 43.9% chance of wining

In Arizona Clinton has a 30% lead.
Nate Silver: Clinton 51.1 chance of wining, Sanders 22.7% chance of wining

3/26/16:

In Alaska Clinton has a 3% lead.
Nate Silver: No prediction

Washington - no reliable poll
Nate Silver: No prediction

Hawaii - no reliable poll
Nate Silver: No prediction

So, ask yourself, based on these polls results, and lack of reliable poll results how in the heck can these predictions be right?

And since Arizona has more delegates than Idaho, Utah and Alaska combined, it's certainly possible that Sanders is going to slip even further behind.

[Vote2016]

13. we should worry about Nate's predictions because he's been wrong so often in 2016 that he's overdue

to get one right?

[CajunBlazer]

16. Tell me, which of any of the March primaries and caucuses is...

Last edited Mon Mar 21, 2016, 01:03 PM - Edit history (1)

...Sanders going to win big enough to cut into Clinton's lead? Remember, virtual ties and close wins no longer cut it.

Since the answer is "none" what that means is that by the end of March 6 more state opportunities will have come and gone without any progress in catching Clinton meaning that Bernie will have to win the remaining states by even larger margins.

His best opportunity is to win big, delegate rich states in a dramatic fashion. However, there are only of those states two left: California where Sanders is behind by 13% and New York where he is behind by more 30%.

Sanders has absolutely no clear path victory - none.

[Vote2016]

12. kick & rec #5