Bernie Sanders is Set To Win All of The Upcoming 8 States, Expert Says

[KamaAina]

http://www.politicalpeopleblog.com/bernie-sanders-set-to-win-all-of-the-upcoming-8-states/

According to polling expert Nate Silver, Bernie Sanders is likely to win all of the upcoming 8 states in the race to become the Democratic nominee. Silver boasts a long record of accurate predictions which includes successfully calling the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, for example. As a result of that particular achievement, he was named one of The World’s 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009.

Currently working at polling organization FiveThirtyEight, Silver has done a remarkable job of predicting state by state who will win in both the Democratic and Republican fields during this election cycle. His credibility took a blow, however, following a win for the rising Democratic candidate, Bernie Sanders in the state of Michigan. Silver and his polling organization claimed that Sanders’ opponent – former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton – had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Michigan primary, when in fact Bernie Sanders won the state by 2%.

After that upset, Silver went back through the records and found that only one primary, the 1984 Democratic one in New Hampshire, was on the same scale as the historical Sanders win in Michigan. The whole polling game changed that day, proclaimed many experts in the period that followed the primary.Silver decided to create an entirely different model and formula for predicting the primaries, one which incorporated demographic factors much more....

It is critical to the Sanders campaign that they finally begin to enter a period of sustained victories, if they are to clinch the nomination. Now, however, following a change in Silver’s prediction system, it seems as though Sanders is on track to achieve just that. While Clinton tends to do better in more conservative regions, such as the Deep South, there aren’t many of such places left to vote. The next 8 states to engage in the Democratic nominating process are Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming. Silver feels Sanders has a shot at winning all of them....

Therefore – with the exception of perhaps Arizona – Bernie Sanders looks set to enter a period of successive wins in very important states. Last week, the Sanders campaign claimed that Clinton’s best days are now behind us and according to polling experts such as Nate Silver it seems as though they were right. Sanders fans will hope that winning all of the upcoming 8 states would provide Bernie with sufficient momentum to enable him to win bigger states in the future such as California and New York.

[arcane1]

1. Hence the "Time to drop out now, stick a fork in him" barrage of the past 48 hours.

I'm sure Clinton's million-dollar polling is telling her the same thing.

[Zira]

4. They're scared because he can win. And Hillary can't win even if she took every Delegate left.

A large percent of Dems won't vote for her no matter what. She isn't viable in the GE. She failed to unify the party.
The DNC has to replace her or concede a loss in the GE.

[astrophuss42]

19. But don't you know?

Even if we aren't for her now, she will always be there for us. Until she bats you away like a fly.

[pdsimdars]

58. "she will always be there for us"

What do you guys smoke. Must be really good.
She has never been there for you unless you are from the upper 1%

[astrophuss42]

59. It was a quote from one of her speeches

And it seems it fooled a good number of people. I believe it was with the other feminists when we got admonished to hell.

[CalvinballPro]

26. Nope, it's more like 33% of the 41% of Dem primary voters Sanders has won so far. Not all Dems. nt

[revbones]

76. Now I'm against Hillary for the nominee, but aren't there like ~2,000 pledged delegates left? nt

[Zira]

2. I hope so. But this may keep happing

[bettyellen]

10. Interesting video! OMG people got their pictures taken, how evil, LOL.

[Zira]

14. Welcome to my ignore.

[bettyellen]

23. Thank you! The dude in the video is both paranoid and naive. First campaign I guess.

maybe he should ask around instead of making so may silly assumptions?

[trumad]

28. Can you include me?

[Sheepshank]

60. Bwah haa ha . Here for only a week and already threatening with the dreaded "ignore"

You may do well to get a thicker skin or you will find yourself in the most boring and losing side of echo chambers.

Could you please add me to you ignore list, petulance is boring and childish, on a political board.

[Lucinda]

64. Ignore me too please!

[Desert805]

67. Add me too!

thanks in advance.

[panader0]

66. What is "happing"?

[Ferd Berfel]

3. Well this'll put a kink

in the collective corporate crowds colon.


But first they will execute the messenger then dismiss the author

[Zira]

7. Who cares what they do? They are irrelevant.

When a large percent of your own party won't vote for your candidate no matter what, you have a really non-viable candidate no matter how infatuated you are with said candidate. She's lost. She lost the Dem primaries because too many Dems won't vote for her no matter how many delegates she gets. The Hillary supporter just haven't figured it out yet. Which is odd and it's just conceding a loss to continue with her. The RNC sure figured it out with Trump. He's non viable and they are trying to replace him.

[hrmjustin]

5. Hillary will win AZ and might win HI.

WI will be an all out battle.

[geek tragedy]

9. I think Sanders thumps Clinton pretty good there.

This is Feingold land, so the principled leftwing iconoclast should do very well there.

[hrmjustin]

11. She will put up a fight though.

I see she is fighting for WA. She needs to hold his margin down.

[geek tragedy]

17. she'll fight everywhere, even where she's down in the polls.

She didn't quit in NH, even knowing she wouldn't win there.

[Agschmid]

25. She didn't, and it's all proportional.

That makes a HUGE difference.

[1StrongBlackMan]

124. Especially at this stage of the game ... with such a lead. ...

I hate to put it this way, lest it be seen as gloating ... The HRC is pretty much in ride it out mode, conserving resources for the G/E.

It's like being in the last quarter of the semis of a wrestling tournament, up 16-8. You can work for the pin and farther tire yourself for the finals; or, you can save your energy for the finals, doing just enough to avoid stalling penalties, while making sure you don't go to your back.

[George II]

112. Correct, she hasn't written off a single state throughout this campaign, unlike her opponent.

[jillan]

12. I've been calling all day in Az, 90% of the people I spoke with are with Bernie.

[hrmjustin]

15. Did you get the list of numbers from the Sanders campaign?

If so it is likely his list of supporters.

[sdaz]

37. I live in Az

and have gotten over 30 phones call from Bernie people in the last 3 days.Says a lot about their phone banking system.I have told them I will not support Bernie and they still call reminds me of a cult.

[jillan]

40. So you are calling people that volunteer their time a "cult"? Wow. Just wow.

[Bluenorthwest]

62. Democracy is a cult?

Have you always been a fascist or did you convert?

[renate]

74. well, I'd be annoyed too, and I support him

Thirty calls in three days would start to get on my nerves as well.

Welcome to DU!

[HerbChestnut]

81. Please don't blame the callers.

There's a ton of phone calls being made for the Sanders campaign by volunteers who are given a call list. Those lists don't get updated fast enough to prevent overlap. You aren't the only one to experience this problem.

[libdem4life]

85. 3 posts. n/t

[renate]

75. thank you so much for your hard work!

[George II]

113. Phone banking a day or two before an election/primary isn't done to sway voters, its done to....

....make sure supporters get out to vote.

[George II]

110. I think you're right. But lost in all this "win" blather is that he doesn't merely have to "win"...

.....but he has to win by 16% (58-42) in EVERY remaining state just to draw even with Clinton.

That simply is not going to happen.

[geek tragedy]

6. Silver is not predicting Sanders will win Arizona. Sanders does not care about crowd sizes.

and his retrodictive model isn't a forecast.

[misterhighwasted]

8. "Now, however, following a change in Silver’s prediction system.."

Silver changed his prediction system to fit the desired outcome?

[KamaAina]

13. From the article:

After that upset, Silver went back through the records and found that only one primary, the 1984 Democratic one in New Hampshire, was on the same scale as the historical Sanders win in Michigan. The whole polling game changed that day, proclaimed many experts in the period that followed the primary.Silver decided to create an entirely different model and formula for predicting the primaries, one which incorporated demographic factors much more.

Using his new method of predicting, Silver would have been able to predict the Michigan caucus far more accurately, as he explains, “Our demographic “retrodiction” for Michigan still has Clinton winning, but only barely — by 3 percentage points, compared with the actual 2-point win for Sanders. Especially under the Democrats’ proportional allocation method, that’s a pretty minor difference.” The difference is even more minor when you incorporate the fact that most polling companies, in the run-up to Michigan had Sanders losing to Clinton by almost 20%.

[misterhighwasted]

21. My point.

Is he going to apply this new system to every primary State? Or just MI.
Just wondering what the outcome may report.

[noiretextatique]

122. It's pretty clear he has a new model

That will apply to every state, per the article, which mentions he tried the new model on MI with more accurate results

[0rganism]

34. avoiding over-correlation based on particularly strong results can be tricky

i would hope and expect Mr. Silver has the openness to evolve a weighting model when it shows weakness and the foresight to cross-correlate his new model with other current results to ensure he doesn't demolish his accurate predictions along the way. someone like Silver doesn't make bank from propping a particular outcome, but rather from his general accuracy in predicting all outcomes. the Michigan results really threw a wrench in his analysis engine.

[Lucky Luciano]

99. He could very easily be over fitting his models if he is not careful. Yup. nt

[cosmicone]

16. Why not create a new model

that will assume no Hillary supporter will come out to vote and 40% of the electorate will reduce their age to millennial level?

Then Sanders can win all 50 states like proclaimed here a while ago.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251650529

[misterhighwasted]

24. THIS ^

[Blue_In_AK]

18. I think Bernie will kill it in Alaska.

We're not many delegates, but we're fired up. They're expecting a big crowd at the caucus on Saturday.

[Agschmid]

27. He will.

[Agschmid]

20. Good read, it will be interesting for sure.

[geek tragedy]

22. Silver's model here gives Sanders less of a chance in AZ than he had in Ohio nt

[misterhighwasted]

29. Maybe he'll revert back to the old model for some States

[geek tragedy]

30. he's not changing model, he's playing with numbers

He did this after Michigan to see if he could model/predict results using demographics rather than polling.

[misterhighwasted]

41. Yes. the article referred to it as 'change in the prediction system.'

Playing with the numbers is a long way from the OP title, however.
Bernie Sanders is Set To Win All of The Upcoming 8 States, Expert Says

[ViseGrip]

31. It was premature and transparent to ask Bernie to get out of the race.

Utterly ridiculous!

[cantbeserious]

32. Thank You For Sharing This Good News

eom

[global1]

33. I'm Just Concerned That They're Building Bernie's Expectations.....

and if it's close or if he loses a state - that the media will claim it as a big win for Hillary.

[Old Codger]

51. They can make

Al the claims they wish, he is much more viable today than she is, he can win the GE she most likely can't and it is way way too early for anyone to concede either direction .. Keep it going til all voters have had their say...If he pulled out that easily she still cannot reconcile all the hard feeling she has caused nor can she make enough changes that anyone will believe ...she is way to much chameleon to suit a lot of voters... Personally if she said it was raining and she was soaking wet I would check for myself.

[Jenny_92808]

71. That is what the Hillary side is trying to do

fool the people into thinking she is inevitable. She's SNOT!

[GreenPartyVoter]

118. I am hesitant to get on board with this analysis after the last series.

Have my fingers crossed, tho!

[Land of Enchantment]

35. The household name

has nowhere to go. She can't build her base, attract millennials or indies.

[R B Garr]

53. Yet she won the popular vote in 2008 and she's a couple MILLION ahead now.

Actually, about 2.4 Million more voters ahead. If that's "nowhere to go", it's looking good!

[JimDandy]

57. Does the count include all the votes in the caucus states

and, if so, were those estimated, because Iowa for example, refused to release the votes for each candidate?

[R B Garr]

63. We're talking about a 2.4 MILLION vote lead. But how about the Michigan voters who got

turned away in a heavy Clinton county because they ran out of ballots...

[JimDandy]

73. Again, does this number include all the caucus states? n/t

[metroins]

103. It includes most states

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Some of the states not shown, Hillary won.

[Land of Enchantment]

77. yeah, in the deep south and Ohio. The MOST PROGRESSIVE

part of the US!!!!! And we all know the south goes BLUE in the GE. Of course we should let them decide who our candidate is and just SCREW the other 24 states and 3 territories.

Just wait because the wind will shift tomorrow and you will be eating your words.

[R B Garr]

79. Tomorrow is just one day/ But how laughable

that you insist she has "nowhere to go" when Sanders himself said he got "creamed". If "nowhere to go" means WINNING by delegates AND the popular vote, that's fine by me.

And that's the absolutely silliest "argument" the Berniebros have about the Deep South. Like you wouldn't eat your heart out to have those states in Bernie's column! Obama beat Hillary in 2008 because he got an early lead in THOSE Southern states. How hilarious you are overlooking that.

[kenfrequed]

106. Yeah.

It bothered me how all the "important states" are states that don't often vote for Democrats. South Carolina is a big deal when it hasn't supported a Democrat in the general election since Jimmy Carter. (about 40 years ago!)

If nothing else we may want to consider restacking the damn primary system so that the south doesn't get to overrule all other areas so thoroughly.

[Chichiri]

36. Last I checked, Nate Silver's name was MUD amongst Bernie supporters. nt

[revbones]

78. Is it really that hard for Hillary supporters?

Bernie supporters like facts and truths. Some didn't like the methodology or statements by Nate Silver. Maybe there were a few outliers that I didn't see criticizing Nate personally, but I think more often than not it was due to other reasons.

Some supporters tend to idolize the person Hillary rather than look at her positions, what she has, or even will do.

I think that's a huge difference between the camps - whether you look at actions vs idolization. I think that clouds the outlook of some, resulting in statements such as yours.

[Chichiri]

88. Is WHAT really that hard? Nt

[revbones]

89. To understand

that Bernie supporters tend to look at facts, actions, policies and positions without idolizing people. Therefore we can criticize the actions, policies, positions, actions and statements of people.

Many Bernie supporters had complaints about 538 or statementsactions of Nate Silver.

Hillary supporters seem to be more about the idolization of Hillary, and possibly that clouds seeing how others might look at issues rather than at people.

If you can't read the previous statement and this explanation, here's a shorter form:

Is it really that hard to understand and distinguish a complaint against someone's actions from a complaint against someone?




For the inevitable jurors, once the alerting Hillary supporter wakes from their fainting:
The Terms of Service clearly state "But that does not mean that DU members are required to always be completely supportive of Democrats. During the ups-and-downs of politics and policy-making, it is perfectly normal to have mixed feelings about the Democratic officials we worked hard to help elect."

[Chichiri]

90. Name five things that Bernie has done wrong. Nt

[revbones]

92. That's your response?

*sigh* Typical dodge and deflect response by a Hillary supporter.

You were insinuating Bernie supporters couldn't criticize Nate on one thing and agree on another.

There is such a thing as nuance. Perhaps if some people didn't believe Hillary could do no wrong, they'd understand that we can look at a person's goodness and their faults.

I commented on your comment. I'm not interested in talking about something else you dodge to, because as soon as I take the bait, you'll just dodge to something else.

Enjoy your evening.

[Chichiri]

94. That's what I thought. Nt

[revbones]

95. You thought I wouldn't take the bait, so you just posted it anyway.

Wow. Brilliant.

[Chichiri]

96. Whatever you say. Nt

[George II]

114. If you like facts and truth, here are some:

Popular vote so far:

Clinton: 8,650,891, Sanders: 6,111,705 (Clinton +2,539,186)

Pledged Delegates so far:

Clinton: 1176, Sanders: 855 (Clinton +321)

Super delegates so far:

Clinton: 472, Sanders: 23 (Clinton +449)

[revbones]

117. Nice. Demonstrates a bit of immaturity though.

Nice post to deflect by ignoring the comment its responding to and just posting something positive for your side. Quite a bit immature though. If you are unable to discuss the comment you're responding to, perhaps nnot replying would at least enable you to retain some semblance of self-respect.

[George II]

119. Ditto.

[DavidDvorkin]

38. Nate Silver gets dragged out from under the bus.

[misterhighwasted]

43. Ha..

"Tad, go down & get Nate"

[DavidDvorkin]

44. "But leave his feet under there, just in case he offends us again."

[misterhighwasted]

47. Ow my ankles!

[DavidDvorkin]

39. Even if this happens, he'll face a steeper climb than he does today.

[jillan]

42. As much as I want to be hopeful about this, it comes from Nate Silver who has seemed to lose his

touch over the last couple of election cycles.

[nadinbrzezinski]

45. Sorry, but I do not trust Nate Silver

in any way, shape or form... don't care what he predicts.

[NuclearDem]

50. That's probably because Nate Silver has a habit of actually being accurate.

[nadinbrzezinski]

52. Nope, but nice try

[Sheepshank]

61. Yup...history bears out the habits of this statistician. Nt

[Kittycat]

69. No. And this year has been a monumental failure for him.

His numbers on the dem side have been demonstrably wrong. If he puts out projections like this and misses? His credibility is gone.

[NuclearDem]

70. He's missed two states where he's made projections, Oklahoma and Michigan.

Everyone was wrong about Michigan, and a lot of that had to do with the polls themselves affecting voting behavior; Democrats felt confident Clinton was going to win, so they went to vote in the Republican primary.

In every other contest, his final polls-plus forecast has predicted the winner.

[Kittycat]

80. You are looking at win/loss. I'm looking at % swing.

Totally different mark.

Eta: he's been off on both candidates, way off for Bernie.

[NuclearDem]

91. I don't think you understand how 538's model works.

[Kittycat]

97. No, I do.

I do. I've been following since he bubbled to the forefront. He runs two sets.

One is an aggregate of polls. The other is a prediction model. In addition, he provides commentary/analysis to back up his opinion.

In the past he has been incredibly accurate. This year, specifically on the democratic side he has missed the mark. Not just in the couple states you mentioned, but in the variance of win or loss range. This is due to the same reasons the model failed on Michigan, but by lesser degrees. It's not accounting for what they could not anticipate, or did not adjust for this cycle.

[George II]

109. Twenty six states so far, he was wrong about one of them (which was decided by 2%). I'd say....

....that's an amazingly accurate record.

A lot more accurate than the person here on DU who proclaimed that Sanders would win all 50 states.

[PATRICK]

46. If it hinges on New York

Are we talking more about the Jesse Jackson insurgence v. party organization centrism or the glamor of Clinton past victories? Jackson also had liberal elements within party organizations and definitely blocs voting for him and people like me upstate voted for him too as much as against the negativity and dullness we were ending up with being handed to the states before us. Well, there is that element here for sure and Hillary is not as popular with the masses here as she is on Wall Street. However, she does have the entire organization behind her. If she even loses the state(coming close should scare the party gods to desperation) it will be a massive blow to the Clinton credibility, possibly mortal, whether she cinches the nomination or not. makes a deal with the progressives or not. before such an accomplishment will have to happen the withering away of party machinery influence or will to back Hillary- if not an insurrection of their own.

Still, the obstinacy AGAINST Sanders of even the more liberal NY scene will hope fervently for some sort of third alternative found with a slate of super-delegates that by and large offer little such hope or rationality or moral stature in the trap. I think everywhere the party regulars look they see burning bridges except for the one dedicated to Hillary, by choice by force, by a fear becoming all too fixed to repair. Unless Sanders has really commanding leads they will double down for HRC or go quiet. If Sanders coasts victoriously over the following series of states it is the sum of all their fears, not a wonderful alternate choice. Also you might convince yourself the GOP is set to lose, divide, etc. How often has that attitude worked post Goldwater? What do the pros secretly believe because they sure as shootin' can't publicly foster more doubt and division so with many voters on their own insurgency momentum.

What Sanders possesses in his own numbers is the absolute key to victory in the fall. It is not an easy legacy to pass down to Clinton. Whole chunks of the electorate are being risked or dumped in the institutional math. An institution that has done nothing to promote media fairness much less truth, woefully little to protect the vote stolen from more popular candidates. BTW statistically even if factoring in emotional feelings is near impossible to compare is Hillary as popular as Gore was in 2000? Sanders is far outperforming Bradley.

[shadowandblossom]

48. after that Nate Silver says Clinton pretty much has the nomination.

The graph they're talking about is from this article on the 15th http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-bernie-sanders-pull-off-an-upset-in-ohio/

Silver adjusted their information, to account for polling troubles, but then polls turned out to be fine for the next round.

On the sixteenth, after voting came in on the day after that other article was written Silver Wrote an article called Clinton is Following Obama's Path to the Nomination about how basically, it's very, very likely that Clinton will receive the nomination.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-following-obamas-path-to-the-nomination/

Silver says, "It’s not that it’s mathematically impossible for Sanders to win; Clinton could have some sort of epic meltdown. But she controls her own fate while Sanders doesn’t really control his, and she has quite a lot of tolerance for error.

Sanders has run a good campaign, and the fact that he ran competitively with Clinton in diverse states such as Michigan, Missouri and Illinois is more impressive in many ways than his early successes in Iowa and New Hampshire. But around 15 million Democrats have voted and, simply put, more of them seem to want Clinton as their nominee."

The source you took from published on the 21st. Also 538 doesn't have forecasts for the upcoming states. But I also heard there are supposed to be good states for him coming up.

[Samantha]

98. "More of them seem to want Clinton as their nominee"

That was then ... when they voted. Today is a new day. Sanders said during his CNN interview he is only five points behind Clinton nationally now. Five points!

As time marches on and his visibility keeps improving, he will garner more and more support.

Sam

[NuclearDem]

49. Clinton has a substantial lead in Arizona--most recent was 26 points.

The other seven have a combined total of 298 delegates at stake. Even if Sanders somehow managed to win all seven of those with margins high enough to lock Clinton out--and I can't stress how unlikely that it is to happen--he would still be trailing.

Once Pennsylvania and New York vote, he'll be right back in the hole. It's not a particularly winning strategy to blow through a third of the remaining contests and barely dent your opponent's lead.

[JimDandy]

54. I'd be really surprised if he won AZ. He should start to seriously erode Clinton's lead in WA

on Sat Mar 26th, though.

[NuclearDem]

55. A dent, maybe. Then Pennsylvania, Maryland, and New York vote.

The larger two of those are closed primaries, to boot.

[pdsimdars]

56. Ah, when I read your posts . . . . . I hear a song . . . ..

I can hear the old guitars a playin',
on the beach at Ho'o nau nau

[Jenny_92808]

72. I have so much hope because of the young leadership I am seeing

Like this

&list=PLx13XUpSaxm6dpDAxIfwz3dDCo_Ahyf1A

&index=2&list=PLx13XUpSaxm6dpDAxIfwz3dDCo_Ahyf1A

[Lucinda]

65. The numbers in the articles don't align with what is at fiverthiryeight n/t

[amborin]

68. K&R

[Skwmom]

82. I read Clinton banked a lot of votes in AZ.

[LonePirate]

83. Slightly deceptive article. It's the winning margins that matter more so than the wins.

Bernie needs to win the five small states well north of 60%-40% and the three large states by 55%-45% or better in order to start chipping away at his delegate deficit. Squeaking out a 52%-48% win in any of the three large states does not change the dynamics of the race.

[Kaleva]

84. Unless he wins by big margins, it won't mean much

[Tarc]

86. But wait a minute, Camp Sanders told us that all of Hill's Southern wins were irrelevant

since they're states the Democrats won't carry in the fall.

Red
----
Arizona
Idaho
Utah
Alaska
Wyoming

Blue
-----
Hawaii
Washington
Wisconsin

So why the crowing about a group of 8 states where 2/3rds of them are these so-called "irrelevant reds" ?

[MuseRider]

87. This 74 year old man

is working harder than anyone I have ever seen. For a guy who really did not want to run he is certainly earning it with time put in. I don't know how he does it.

Awesome. He has my support totally and always.

[senz]

93. May this good thing happen to us.

In 2016, a Bernie Sanders presidential win is the best hope for our country, its people, and the world. This is the very best thing that could happen to us at this time.

Let justice roll down like waters, and righteousness like an ever-flowing stream.

[Betty Karlson]

100. That's great news - let's hope he will do so by 60 - 40 percent margins.

(because that would propel him into outright nomination territory, no need for superdelegates at all)

[synergie]

101. So, where on fivethirtyeight.com did they take that interesting looking chart from?

Did they say? Or is that mere employee at 538 providing this random blog some specialized information that he and his blog aren't sharing with anyone, given that they don't have forecasts for any of the states coming up tomorrow?

Arizona, Dem:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/arizona-democratic/
UPDATED 9:03 PM EDT | Mar 21, 2016
D Arizona Democratic primary

There’s no forecast for Arizona yet because there isn’t enough recent polling.
Polling Average: 51.1% Clinton 22.7% Sanders

The caucuses don't have any forecasts and the numbers don't match up either.

Why such desperation to believe anything that gives you news you wish to hear, no matter how blatantly made up it is?

[Bad Dog]

102. None of these polls really mean anything.

Until the actual vote. They can be notoriously wrong, last UK general election all the polls predicted another hung parliament and the Tories got in.

They're a response to not knowing, keeping your hopes up and putting down the opposition.

[lmbradford]

108. +1

[TBF]

104. And these are states that will actually be BLUE in the election. nt

[Fast Walker 52]

105. I hope so, and I hope this mornings terror attacks doesn't freak out people into voting for HRC

The last thing we need is more of her sick militarism.

[DCBob]

107. All told after these 8 "great" Bernie states he will still trail by well over 200 delegates.

Then we have NY, MD, PA, etc... and back up over 300.

Bernie is toast.

[George II]

111. Anyone here check the "About" Politicalpeopleblog? Objective? I think not.

Note there was no direct link to anything Nate Silver predicted, in fact not even a link to that "Table taken from FiveThirtyEight"!!!

The author is misrepresenting Silver's data.

[Hiraeth]

115. states don't let me down. make it so.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

116. Good, I'll be interested to see if he's correct

[tabasco]

120. So many people have yet to vote.

Amazing that many Democrats would ask that Sanders bow out.

March 22: American Samoa Republican convention, Arizona primary, Idaho Democratic caucus, Utah caucus

March 26: Alaska Democratic caucus, Hawaii Democratic caucus, Washington Democratic caucus

April 5: Wisconsin primary

April 9: Wyoming Democratic caucus

April 19: New York primary

April 26: Connecticut primary, Delaware primary, Maryland primary, Pennsylvania primary, Rhode Island primary

May 3: Indiana primary

May 7: Guam Democratic caucus

May 10: West Virginia primary

May 17: Kentucky Democratic primary, Oregon primary

June 4: Virgin Islands Democratic caucus

June 5: Puerto Rico Democratic caucus

June 7: California primary, Montana primary, New Jersey primary, New Mexico primary, North Dakota Democratic caucus, South Dakota primary

June 14: District of Columbia Democratic primary

July 25-28: Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia

Nov. 8: Election Day

[demwing]

121. Kicked and Rec'd

[Orsino]

123. That would surprise me.

But it would be consistent with the general trend of people liking him, the more they know of him. I don't see a likely path to the nomiation for him, but hope he and we will fight all the way to the convention and beyond, turning a fad into real revolution. We need more progressive politics, and less of the same ol'.

The myth of inevitability had tremendous power, though, accustomed as we are to obeying our televisions and voting straight brand-name tickets. Sanders has always needed a long runway, and I scoff at any calls for him to step aside.