Here’s How You Know 2016 Is Already Decided
The 2016 presidential election is looking like it will be a matchup between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. While this election season has been full of surprises, it is likely that the most decisive period in the election has already passed, the outcome is set and this presidential election will be the first time since 1952 that Democrats will hold on to the White House for three terms in a row.
In a prior Politico article, I laid out the primary factors that have shaped the outcome of presidential election in eight of the last nine presidential elections: the state of the economy, the incumbent president’s job approval and how and when the nomination fight is settled. Right now, none of these factors is working in the Republicans’ favor.
Economic trends continue to be largely positive, with 3.3 million jobs created in the past 12 months. In the past two years, we’ve seen the most job growth in the country since 1999. Unemployment has dropped to less than 5 percent—a rate that most economists would say indicates full employment. The demand for more labor has finally begun to increase incomes for American workers. While it’s not exactly Morning in America, it’s undeniable progress and helps make the case for keeping a Democrat in the White House.
Obama’s support is also strong. According to the most recent Gallup poll, Obama now has a 50 percent job approval rating—his highest in two years. The average approval rating for presidents at this point in their final year in office is 47 percent. Obama’s relative popularity is also good news for Democrats.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/doug-sosnik-memo-2016-is-over-213753
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