Thoroughly Confused

[pat_k]

Is anyone else confused?



Number of Dems voting early according to http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/what-does-early-vote-say-about-who-will-do-well-n543641:

297,714

Counted According to http://apps.azsos.gov/election/2016/PPE/Results/PPE2016Results.htm:

247,095

Counted According to http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results:

313,619


OK, is the majority of what's being reported from early voting? Or what?

From nytimes:

Maricopa: 1 of 724 precincts (Accounting for 181,246 votes... 1 precinct?)
Mohave "initial results"
Yuma: "intial results"
Navajo: initial results"
Gila: "initial results"
Pinal: "initial results"
Yavapai: "initial results"


If we are looking at early voting results, it doesn't make much sense to me to call it. According to http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/what-does-early-vote-say-about-who-will-do-well-n543641 :

On the Democratic side, of the 297,714 voters who have already cast their ballots... Voters under 30 account for only 7 percent of Democratic early voters compared to 41 percent for the over 65 crowd.

So, younger voters... generally Sanders voters, are way underrepresented in early voting. So big skew is totally unsurprising.

But they've called it.

As I said, thoroughly confused.

Particularly since some polling places are apparently still open.

Just don't get it.

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. Pretty much everything reported now is early/absentee voting

The counties are actually doing the right thing in not reporting or counting current precinct voting until everybody has had a chance to vote. That's why there's a long delay in reporting the TODAY vote. But the early and absentee voting makes up 30% of all registered Democrats (eligible voters) and the margins, together with the exit polls, show that TODAY voting can't make up the difference. Essentially. Bernie got his ass shellacked so badly in just the early voting that he had no chance with election day voting barring some miracle, and that miracle did not unfold.

[pat_k]

3. How the heck do they know what "unfolded" when they haven't started counting today's vote?

Sorry, I still don't get calling it given the demographics of the early vote (only 7% of early voters under 30)

Oh well.

Whatever.

[alcibiades_mystery]

5. Exit polls aren't a whole lot of good in a 52-48 contest

But when one candidate needs 63%, they can tell you pretty definitively whether that's even in the realm of possibility.

[monmouth4]

2. I hope Bernie's people are on this. I am confused too...n/t

[MrMickeysMom]

4. I cannot help to think that his people are on it...

I await morning.

Meanwhile, thank you for detailing the metrics. I was going on common sense in my gut and the fact that Maricopa had 60 of the generally 200 places to vote this time. Long lines?

Pictures way past 11:00

[AzDar]

6. People STILL IN LINE Waiting To Vote...Have been Waiting For HOURS!

https://twitter.com/shivani_112/status/712486002628141057

[Lorien]

7. There are people in AZ posting on FB saying that they are still in line to vote

because there aren't enough ballots. Those who registered as Dems for the first time this year or last are being turned away. Seriously WTF???I've never heard of a news organization calling an election with so little info, while it's still in progress!

[JaneyVee]

8. Everyone is confused because...

Arizona embargoes their ballots, there are no exit polling, results then come flooding in.

[catnhatnh]

9. Really Janey

isn't it completely wrong to call it now? Because reporting an outcome is totally wrong before everyone votes, right?