Bernie not only won more delegates Tuesday, he MET his target according to 538!

[thesquanderer]

Last edited Thu Mar 24, 2016, 09:08 AM - Edit history (1)

There have been plenty of posts about how Bernie's wins in Idaho and Utah more than offset his loss in Arizona, giving him a net gain in delegates for the night, closing the gap with Hillary.

However... some people have posted that, even though he won more delegates, he didn't win by enough of them to reach 538's target figure for the night.

Well, with the latest delegate figures, 538 says he has met that threshold!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

131 delegates were at stake in 3 contests. Bernie Sanders's target was 74 delegates; he has won 74.

ETA: I removed additional text about the target figure, as it has been pointed out to me that my explanation was not accurate.

[morningfog]

1. Keep on keeping on!

[Surya Gayatri]

2. Yeah...push that sucker.

[thesquanderer]

9. No one said it was going to be easy! (n/t)

[pdsimdars]

3. THIS is the only kind of tide that will raise ALL boats

That "trickle down" nonsense of the Clintons, Bushes and Obama did not work for EVERYONE.
I like to say the rising tide lifts all boats unless all the water has been diverted to the yacht club.

[MelungeonWoman]

4. BOOM!

Shake the room! Even with all the shenanigans Bernie pulled it off. On to the weekend!

[Raissa]

5. Wait...

Are the target numbers adjusted each race to see what is needed for the next?

I thought it was a 50/50 split adjusted for demographics and that the targets had not been modified since the race began.

[thesquanderer]

6. Good catch, thanks. I have updated the OP accordingly. (n/t)

[hrmjustin]

7. NY will wipe out any gains he makes.

[thesquanderer]

10. You're right that the polls for him don't look good in NY...

...but a lot can happen in a month, Sanders' has come up from huge deficits before.

[LuvLoogie]

8. He hit his target for March 22. So did Hillary.

So no. No gain, no catching up to Hillary. The target is not adjusted each time Bernie loses.