2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders is currently NOT winning the Democratic primary, and I can prove it to you.
Denial is powerful. The extent to which the human mind can conjure up scenarios besides the one we dont want to see is impressive, the result of some weird psychological glitch that probably evolved as a way of allowing us to keep our sanity. I dont know; Im not an evolutionary psychologist.
What I am is a dude who spends a lot of time looking at poll numbers, and particularly poll numbers related to the 2016 nomination contests. I am the author of various articles assessing the chances of Sen. Bernie Sanders in the Democratic iteration thereof; those articles come to the conclusion that Hillary Clinton is very, very likely to be the partys nominee. Its a simple function of math. Sanders needs to win a lot of states with a lot of delegates by a lot of points -- something that hes so far shown no ability to do. He needs to win about three-quarters of the remaining delegates. Unless deus emerges from the machina, he will not.
But thats me looking at things objectively. I suspect that Seth Abramson a University of New Hampshire English professor and author of Bernie Sanders Is Currently Winning the Democratic Primary Race, and Ill Prove It to You is not considering the race from the same space.
Abramsons proof consists of the following argument. Actually, Bernie Sanders has more support from Democrats. Its just that no one knows who he is. So Hillary Clinton banks a lot of early votes. But then they hear about Sanders and prefer him, and thats why voting on Election Day favors Sanders. So, really, Sanders is preferred.
The only problem with this is all of the parts.
The rest: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/23/sorry-bernie-supporters-your-candidate-is-not-currently-winning-the-democratic-primary-race/?tid=sm_tw
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)So we will know for sure by June 7th that Bernie does not have enough delegates to win the nomination since he can't possibly win 70% of the remaining delegates.
We have closed primaries in large states coming up in April. Bernie only wins when independents are voting in our primaries and usually in caucuses.
So what will the this board be like for the weeks between the CA primary and the convention if Bernie is staying in until the convention?
Will reality prevail or will some blog poster still tell us Bernie is winning?
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Hillary has "Bernie's" superdelegates. And of course, someone could argue that Bernie has some of "Hillary's"from states she got a majority vote in. Probably quarreling over disposition of those null sets could keep them busy for a month or so.
Someone needs to tell the writer of that garbage that one's person opinion is not ALL Bernie supporters. I guarantee that 95%+ of Bernie supporters know that he's not currently winning.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Soooo....
I said 95%+, which leaves plenty in the additional 5% that disagree.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)On those op's.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)randome
(34,845 posts)There is a lot of wasted energy on both sides to 'convince' the other side. If that energy isn't going to be put to good use, then we may as well all sit back and see what the totals are at the end.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]TECT in the name of the Representative approves of this post.[/center][/font][hr]
Gothmog
(145,130 posts)According to Predictwise, Sanders has a 5% chance of being the nominee http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination
Orsino
(37,428 posts)Abramson may have honest intentions, and has a real point, but the leap to a Sanders "lead" is weird.
mcar
(42,302 posts)Thanks.
Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)We get it. You prefer a right wing woman with a long history of corruption and lack of morals to a liberal white male. Not something that a Democrat should be bragging about IMO, but the choice is yours
eomer
(3,845 posts)Bernie's path to the nomination is to win a majority of the pledged delegates that are selected by the primary election and then for the super delegates to do what they have always done before: ratify the choice of the voters.
A majority is 2,026 of the 4,051 total pledged delegates. The current count is Hillary 1,228 and Bernie 934. So Bernie needs 1,092 out of the remaining 1,889, which is 57.8%.