2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumFun fact: 17% were PUMA in 2008. Only 7% are BOB now. "Bernie or Bust" is mostly myth.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/08/clinton.voters/
In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey conducted by Hart Research Associates this month, 7% of Sanders voters said they could see themselves supporting Trump. Some 66% said the same for Clinton.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/13/bernie-sanders-supporters-consider-donald-trump-no-hillary-clinton
There's a post here that says, "Many of Bernie's supporters are disillusioned current or former Democrats or never were Democrats. I don't see that group of his supporters voting for Hillary, if she is the nominee, simply because Bernie endorses her, no matter how much they admire him."
The post continues and says Clinton "... had a personal interest in having the PUMAs vote for Obama and remain loyal Democrats. I doubt Bernie has his eyes on another run for the Oval Office if he is not the 2016 nominee." It falls short of saying that Sanders won't actually stump for Clinton, of course.
Well, the polls obviously say otherwise. Given that Sanders is a man of strong character, and that he will very likely stump for Clinton has she did for Obama in 2008, I have no qualms or worries about the "Bernie or Bust" movement whatsoever.
The post closes with this, "Assumptions that Bernie's supporters of 2016 will behave the way that Hillary's supporters did in 2008 are not taking in the differences in the candidates, the election-year climates, or the voting populations."
Which completely ignores that Trump (the likely Republican nominee) has massive problems with voting populations, from requiring 40% of the Latino vote and 64% of the white vote, to having a 10 point disadvantage with women voters, and a terrible, unbelievable millennial problem (90% won't vote for him). The idea "that many will vote Green, write in Bernie or not vote the top of the ticket" is unbelievably preposterous, as the aggregate of the BOB movement are already a smaller movement than the PUMA's were in 2008.
I'll remain amused as this meme continues to make its rounds, especially because a good 70-80% of Sanders' votes are from millennials, who will not vote for Trump, and it is more likely that they will turn out to vote against him than it is that they will simply stay home.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)joshcryer
(62,269 posts)And "Bernie or Busters" are more idealists. So you have a smaller number of them than you had of the PUMAs.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)Neither one really has any consistent belief other than they are the greatest and most entitled person on the planet, Clinton will move right and Trump will move left.
joshcryer
(62,269 posts)His whole shtick is that he's supposed to be this unassailable truth teller who tells it straight. His only attack on Clinton is "untrustworthiness." If he makes that shift then it's easy to show that he's such a big politician.
When he came out for banning all Muslims I knew he was for real. He's not going to back down on any of that bigoted rhetoric.
He might try to soften the sexist crap, but this is Trump we're talking about, I doubt he can do it.
edit: I agree Clinton will tone it down a bit, and actually I see her hitting Trump hard on tariffs and Wall Street and a lot of progressives will be turned off by that.
Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)One thing Trump knows is how to manipulate the media into doing his bidding and after the nominations when the Sanders threat is neutralized the media will no longer be on Hillary's side.
Trump will have the M$M wrapped around his stubby little finger and they will sing the siren song to the public.
CBGLuthier
(12,723 posts)they are both republicans. You will never convince me that the Clintons are really democrats again.
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)No way we are voting Trump
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)I voted for Obama and I call myself an Obama Democrat today. BOB is up to 30% now. I a not one to try and change your mind tho. BOB is your choice. Should Clinton be the nominee we will have to pull out big names to campaign with Hillary to compensate the 30% BOB that's all.
randome
(34,845 posts)They were die-hard Clinton loyalists and opposed Obama's nomination. But we see how that turned out. And since the BOB movement is smaller than the flash-in-the-pan PUMA movement, I think the OP's point is correct. BOB will not dictate this election.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]All things in moderation, including moderation.[/center][/font][hr]
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)I'm not PUMA never was... Should Bernie be the nominee I will support him and vote for him not because I like Bernie but because I love my country and GOP in the WH is a no way in hell for me.
randome
(34,845 posts)I've always said I would prefer someone other than Clinton but I have no problem voting for her. There is a larger picture to keep in mind.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]All things in moderation, including moderation.[/center][/font][hr]
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)joshcryer
(62,269 posts)66 would vote for Clinton in 2016 60 in 2008. That's a 6 point gain, illustrating that the Bernie or Bust movement is smaller than the PUMA movement.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Obama won 2008 in a cakewalk.