Analysis Why winning California's presidential primary won't be easy for Bernie Sanders
Very interesting. Lots more at link. Gives me hope
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-california-primary-20160324-story.html
Analysis Why winning California's presidential primary won't be easy for Bernie Sanders
March 24
...............Early indications are that Clinton and Sanders could run a close race in California. That would not be good enough for the senator from Vermont, who needs to beat Clinton decisively here to overtake her lead in delegates.
A survey released Wednesday by the Public Policy Institute of California showed Clinton leading Sanders, 48% to 41%. She held a 23-percentage-point lead among Latinos, who could make up about a third of the Democratic electorate in June. Among women, who are more than half the Democratic vote, Clinton led by 19 percentage points.
Sanders has found great success this year in caucus states, where his supporters can overrun Clinton’s efforts. His victories Tuesday in the Idaho and Utah caucuses, where lines of his supporters snaked around buildings in a visible show of support, demonstrated what his campaign can do on a smaller scale.
But organizing a state with more than 7.4 million Democrats — and an additional 4.1 million nonpartisan voters who can cast Democratic ballots this year — is a giant exercise unlike any Sanders has pulled off in the campaign so far, as he conceded in Wednesday’s interview.
Essentially he is trying to do what Barack Obama could not do in his 2008 primary battle here with Clinton — and doing it without Obama’s strength among African American voters.
"Her coalition is very similar to what it was in 2008," said Bill Burton, an Obama campaign aide in 2008 and now a California-based Clinton backer. "And she’ll probably do so much better than she did with African Americans, now that President Obama isn’t in the race."
Arizona, where Clinton won on Tuesday, is a far smaller state than California, though its demographic makeup is somewhat similar. The results there were not good news for the Vermont senator — particularly if they are replicated to the west.
Sanders outspent Clinton down the stretch in Arizona and held rallies that drew thousands and inspired hope in the campaign for an upset. Clinton won by double digits.
Another troublesome predicate for a California race could be found in Ohio, where Clinton brushed aside Sanders’ challenge on the strength of alliances made decades ago and nurtured until this campaign — just as they have been here...................
= new reply since forum marked as read
