BTRTN March 26 Predictions: Bernie Will Sweep Three Western Caucuses Tomorrow

[tgards79]

Bernie fans, get out your popcorn, tomorrow night is your trifecta:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/03/march-26-predictions-bernie-will-sweep.html

[Blue_In_AK]

1. Alaskans are definitely feeling the Bern

Hillary hasn't even bothered to campaign here at all, not even running TV ads, while I've seen three or four different (really good) Bernie ads. Jane came up and did a town hall with us here in Anchorage last night and is out in Dillingham today. It's nice to be noticed by a presidential candidate for a change. We don't have many delegates and only three electoral votes so we may not mean much to Hillary, but Bernie cares about us and our issues. We appreciate that.

[tgards79]

4. Kind of makes the point that...

...Bernie is all about being popular, Hillary is all about getting delegates. Bernie loves the attention, Hillary wants to win.

[Blue_In_AK]

5. Well, I did see that Bill will be blessing us with robocalls today,

which I WON'T be paying attention to, but thanks for caring. You totally made my point.

[suffragette]

11. Glad to see this! The ads are great, aren't they?

Both Bernie and Hillary have been in Seattle. I've only seen Bernie's ads here though.

[PyaarRevolution]

13. They're very wired in.

So Hillary's strength in MSM won't have as much effect there as in other places given Net Neutrality.

[suffragette]

14. Good point!

And many younger people don't use traditional cable tv in the same way that they've ditched landlines.

[PyaarRevolution]

15. MSNBC and the rest of MSM won't be able to con them.

But how many people or their parents have access to FSTV, RT and AJAM(the only REAL news outlets we have on TV right now).

[hack89]

2. Key point here

So, with little to go on, BTRTN predicts that Bernie Sanders will sweep the Washington, Alaska and Hawaii caucuses, winning by comfortable margins.

But it is the same overall story. If Bernie wins by these margins, he will pick up a net of only about 20 delegates on Clinton, barely qualifying as a material lessening of the 303 delegate gap he now faces.

[Bleacher Creature]

3. And yet it still won't make a huge dent in her delegate lead.

But feel free to enjoy the moment.

[kristopher]

6. Well, maybe. But just for perspective

As of now

Clinton has 1223 of the 4051 pledged delegates or 30% of the total.

Bernie has 920 of the 4051 pledged delegates or 23% of the total.

It is entirely possible that Bernie will sweep the next 10 states.

[tgards79]

7. I'm sorry that just cannot happen.

Do you really think Bernie is going to win New York? The last poll had Clinton up by 53 points. That is not a typo.

If Clinton wins New York by 69/31, Bernie needs to get 66% of the rest of the delegates to win. I mean, please, he did not come close to that in NH which has no black people and is a neighbor state.

[pdsimdars]

8. God, they're so smug. wow!

It's so ugly and so thick.
And to think, THESE are the same people urging Bernie supporters to come to their side.
Who is ever going to do that? Ugh!

[kristopher]

9. Pssst.

(I think they're skeered.)

[pdsimdars]

10. Me too.

[Blue_In_AK]

12. That was my thought, as well.

All I did was make a comment about how refreshing it is that a presidential candidate is making time for Alaska, and I get hammered with "neener, neener, neener, you're going to lose anyway." Nice.

[tgards79]

18. OK, fair enough

I thought it was an interesting look at the strategic decisions the two candidates are making. I did not mean to insult you, and for that I apologize.

[Blue_In_AK]

20. I'm feeling magnanimous.

The Bernie and the bird video lifted my spirits. Apology accepted.

[tgards79]

21. Whew!

Glad!

[tgards79]

19. Smug?

I look at the number objectively on the blog. What is smug about it? It is factually correct that Sanders has to win an unlikely percentage of the remaining vote to win. That's all.

[NuclearDem]

16. New York and Pennsylvania?

Sure...whatever you say.

[kristopher]

17. I say we won't know the final results until CA's 548 are allocated.

[DCBob]

22. This.. "barely qualifying as a material lessening of the 303 delegate gap"

But it is the same overall story. If Bernie wins by these margins, he will pick up a net of only about 20 delegates on Clinton, barely qualifying as a material lessening of the 303 delegate gap he now faces.

Winning the battle but losing the war.

[tgards79]

23. Right...

...or, winning small-state battles and losing big-state wars.

[DCBob]

24. Yep.. that about sums it up as well.